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Worker flows and job flows: a quantitative investigation

  • Shigeru Fujita
  • Makoto Nakajima

Worker flows and job flows behave differently over the business cycle. The authors investigate the sources of the differences by studying quantitative properties of a multiple-worker version of the search/matching model that features endogenous job separation and intra-firm wage bargaining. Their calibration incorporates micro- and macro-level evidence on worker and job flows. The authors show that the dynamic stochastic equilibrium of the model replicates important cyclical features of worker flows and job flow simultaneously. In particular, the model correctly predicts that hires from unemployment move countercyclically while the job creation rate moves procyclically. The key to this result is to allow for a large hiring flow that does not go through unemployment but is part of job creation, for which procyclicality of the job finding rate dominates its cyclicality. The authors also show that the model generates large volatilities of unemployment and vacancies when a worker's outside option is at 83 percent of aggregate labor productivity.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 09-33.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:09-33
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  1. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John & Willis, Jonathan L., 2007. "Search frictions: Matching aggregate and establishment observations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 56-78, September.
  2. Shigeru Fujita & Makoto Nakajima, 2009. "Worker flows and job flows: a quantitative investigation," Working Papers 09-33, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Krusell, P & Smith Jr, A-A, 1995. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomic," RCER Working Papers 399, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
  5. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2010. "Business Volatility, Job Destruction, and Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 259-87, April.
  6. Gary Solon & Ryan Michaels & Michael W. L. Elsby, 2009. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 84-110, January.
  7. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," 2005 Meeting Papers 460, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Eran Yashiv, 2007. "U.S. labor market dynamics revisited," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19665, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  9. Mortensen, Dale T., 1994. "The cyclical behavior of job and worker flows," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1121-1142, November.
  10. Steven J. Davis, 2010. "Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 688-91, May.
  11. George A. Akerlof & Andrew K. Rose & Janet L. Yellen, 1988. "Job Switching and Job Satisfaction in the U.S. Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(2), pages 495-594.
  12. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 19 pages.
  13. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Prescott, Edward C., 1974. "Equilibrium search and unemployment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 188-209, February.
  14. Fabien Postel-Vinay & Giuseppe Moscarini, 2013. "Stochastic Search Equilibrium," 2013 Meeting Papers 159, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. Steven J. Davis & Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2011. "Labor Market Flows in the Cross Section and Over Time," NBER Working Papers 17294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Marcelo Veracierto, 2007. "Establishments dynamics and matching frictions in classical competitive equilibrium," Working Paper Series WP-07-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  17. Shigeru Fujita, 2011. "Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 89-121, January/F.
  18. Eran Yashiv, 2007. "U.S. Labor Market Dynamics Revisited," CEP Discussion Papers dp0831, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  19. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger & Jonathan L. Willis, 2007. "Implications of Search Frictions: Matching Aggregate and Establishment-level Observations," NBER Working Papers 13115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Samuel E. Henly & Juan M. Sanchez, 2009. "The U.S. establishment-size distribution: secular changes and sectoral decomposition," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 419-454.
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