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Cyclicality of Job and Worker Flows: New Data and a New Set of Stylized Facts

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  • Wellschmied, Felix Maximilian
  • Bachmann, Rüdiger
  • Bayer, Christian
  • Seth, Stefan

Abstract

We study the relationship between cyclical job and worker flows at the plant level using a new data set spanning from 1976-2006. We find that procyclical labor demand explains relatively little of procyclical worker flows. Instead, all plants in the employment growth distribution increase their worker turnover during booms. We also find that cyclical changes in the employment growth distribution are mostly driven by plants moving from inactivity to a growing labor force during booms. Consequently, increased labor turnover at growing plants is the main quantitative driver behind increased labor turnover during booms. We argue that on the job search models are able to capture non-parallel shifts in the employment growth distribution and procyclical conditional worker flows for a range of the growth distribution. Yet, they fail to rationalize procyclical accession rates for all shrinking and procylical separation rates for all growing plants.

Suggested Citation

  • Wellschmied, Felix Maximilian & Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian & Seth, Stefan, 2013. "Cyclicality of Job and Worker Flows: New Data and a New Set of Stylized Facts," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79874, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79874
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philip, Jung & Moritz, Kuhn, 2011. "The Era of the U.S.-Europe Labor Market Divide: What can we learn?," MPRA Paper 32322, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    4. Burgess, Simon & Lane, Julia & Stevens, David, 2000. "Job Flows, Worker Flows, and Churning," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(3), pages 473-502, July.
    5. Leo Kaas & Philipp Kircher, 2015. "Efficient Firm Dynamics in a Frictional Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3030-3060, October.
    6. Gartner, Hermann & Merkl, Christian & Rothe, Thomas, 2012. "Sclerosis and large volatilities: Two sides of the same coin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 106-109.
    7. Bellmann, Lutz & Gerner, Hans-Dieter & Upward, Richard, 2011. "Job and Worker Turnover in German Establishments," IZA Discussion Papers 6081, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    8. Menzio, Guido & Moen, Espen R., 2010. "Worker replacement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 623-636, September.
    9. Shigeru Fujita & Makoto Nakajima, 2016. "Worker Flows and Job Flows: A Quantitative Investigation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 1-20, October.
    10. Gartner, Hermann & Merkl, Christian & Rothe, Thomas, 2012. "Sclerosis and large volatilities: Two sides of the same coin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 106-109.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lichter, Andreas, 2016. "Benefit Duration and Job Search Effort: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 10264, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian & Merkl, Christian & Seth, Stefan & Stüber, Heiko & Wellschmied, Felix, 2017. "Worker Churn and Employment Growth at the Establishment Level," IZA Discussion Papers 11063, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Bellmann, Lutz & Gerner, Hans-Dieter & Upward, Richard, 2011. "Job and Worker Turnover in German Establishments," IZA Discussion Papers 6081, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Sanchez, Manuel & Wellschmied, Felix, 2017. "Modeling Life-Cycle Earnings Risk with Positive and Negative Shocks," IZA Discussion Papers 10925, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian & Merkl, Christian & Seth, Stefan & Stüber, Heiko & Wellschmied, Felix, 2017. "Job and worker flows: New stylized facts for Germany," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 02/2017, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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