IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v42y2020i4p850-859.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries

Author

Listed:
  • Furceri, Davide
  • Hannan, Swarnali A.
  • Ostry, Jonathan D.
  • Rose, Andrew K.

Abstract

The empirical evidence on the growth effects of import tariffs is sparse in the literature, notwithstanding strong views held by the public and politicians. Using an annual panel of macroeconomic data for 151 countries over 1963–2014, we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically and statistically sizeable and persistent decline in output growth. Thus, fears that the ongoing trade war may be costly for the world economy in terms of foregone output growth are justified.

Suggested Citation

  • Furceri, Davide & Hannan, Swarnali A. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Rose, Andrew K., 2020. "Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 850-859.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:42:y:2020:i:4:p:850-859
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.03.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893820300430
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.03.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feyrer, James, 2021. "Distance, trade, and income — The 1967 to 1975 closing of the Suez canal as a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    2. Eichengreen, Barry J., 1981. "A dynamic model of tariffs, output and employment under flexible exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 341-359, August.
    3. Paola Giuliano & Prachi Mishra & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2013. "Democracy and Reforms: Evidence from a New Dataset," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 179-204, October.
    4. Rose, Andrew & Furceri, Davide & Ahmed Hannan, Swarnali & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2018. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs," CEPR Discussion Papers 13389, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 983-1001, July.
    6. Mary Amiti & Jozef Konings, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1611-1638, December.
    7. Stefan Reitz & Ulf D. Slopek, 2005. "Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Insights from a New Open Economy Macroeconomics Model," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 141(II), pages 285-311, June.
    8. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    9. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Alessandro Prati & Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2009. "Structural Reforms and Economic Performance in Advanced and Developing Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 2009/003, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Francisco Rodríguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Krugman, Paul, 1982. "The macroeconomics of protection with a floating exchange rate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 141-182, January.
    12. Dollar, David, 1992. "Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 523-544, April.
    13. Mary Amiti & Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "The impact of the 2018 trade war on US prices and welfare," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 553, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Jonathan D. Ostry & Andrew Berg & Siddharth Kothari, 2021. "Growth‐equity trade‐offs in structural reforms," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(2), pages 209-237, May.
    15. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    16. Alessandro Prati & Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato & Chris Papageorgiou, 2013. "Which Reforms Work and under What Institutional Environment? Evidence from a New Data Set on Structural Reforms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 946-968, July.
    17. Cripps, Francis T & Godley, Wynne A H, 1978. "Control of Imports as a Means to Full Employment and the Expansion of World Trade: The UK's Case: Comment," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 327-334, September.
    18. Petia Topalova & Amit Khandelwal, 2011. "Trade Liberalization and Firm Productivity: The Case of India," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 995-1009, August.
    19. Bairoch, Paul, 1972. "Free trade and European economic development in the 19th century," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 211-245, November.
    20. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Rose, Andrew K., 1992. "An empirical evaluation of the macroeconomic effects of tarrifs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 63-79, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt & Kaspar Wüthrich, 2020. "Protectionism and Economic Growth: Causal Evidence from the First Era of Globalization," CESifo Working Paper Series 8759, CESifo.
    2. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    3. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen, 2023. "Does international trade promote economic growth? Europe, 19th and 20th centuries," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1358, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Tullio Gregori & Marco Giansoldati, 2023. "Do current and capital account liberalizations affect economic growth in the long run?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 247-273, July.
    5. Khorana, Sangeeta & Caram, Santiago & Biagetti, Marco, 2021. "Developmental relevance of Everything but Arms: Implications for Bangladesh after LDC graduation," MPRA Paper 116258, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Masashige Hamano & Francesco Pappadà & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2023. "Optimal Monetary Policy, Tariff Shocks and Exporter Dynamics," Working Papers 2309, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Douglas A. Irwin, 2019. "Does Trade Reform Promote Economic Growth? A Review of Recent Evidence," Working Paper Series WP19-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    2. Marrazzo, Marco & Terzi, Alessio, 2017. "Structural reform waves and economic growth," Working Paper Series 2111, European Central Bank.
    3. Barry Eichengreen, 2019. "Trade Policy and the Macroeconomy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 4-23, March.
    4. Davide Furceri & Swarnali A Hannan & Jonathan D Ostry & Andrew K Rose, 2022. "The Macroeconomy After Tariffs," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 36(2), pages 361-381.
    5. Nauro F. Campos & Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2017. "Structural Reforms, Growth and Inequality: An Overview of Theory, Measurement and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 6812, CESifo.
    6. Alessandro Barattieri & Matteo Cacciatore, 2023. "Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 97-128, April.
    7. Jiajie Yu & Shuang Meng, 2023. "How Does Trade Openness Affect Output Growth? A Perspective from the Input Diversity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-21, June.
    8. Patricia Augier & Michael Gasiorek & Gonzalo Varela, 2007. "Determinants of Productivity in Morocco - The Role of Trade?," CARIS Working Papers 02, Centre for the Analysis of Regional Integration at Sussex, University of Sussex.
    9. Sundar Ponnusamy, 2022. "Export specialization, trade liberalization and economic growth: a synthetic control analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 637-669, August.
    10. Metiu, Norbert, 2021. "Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt & Kaspar Wuthrich, 2020. "Protectionism and economic growth: Causal evidence from the first era of globalization," Papers 2010.02378, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    12. Jeanne, Olivier & Son, Jeongwon, 2012. "To what extent are tariffs offset by exchange rates?," Economics Working Paper Archive 66656, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    13. Davide Furceri & Swarnali A. Hannan & Jonathan D. Ostry & Andrew K. Rose, 2018. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs," NBER Working Papers 25402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Jakob B. Madsen, 2009. "Trade Barriers, Openness, and Economic Growth," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(2), pages 397-418, October.
    15. Lora, Eduardo, 2012. "Las reformas estructurales en América Latina: Qué se ha reformado y cómo medirlo (Versión actualizada)," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4086, Inter-American Development Bank.
    16. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Atif Ali Jaffri & Faisal Abbas & Azad Haider, 2017. "Does Trade Liberalization Improve Trade Balance in Pakistan?," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 18(2), pages 158-183, September.
    17. Miaojie Yu, 2020. "China-US Trade War and Trade Talk," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-981-15-3785-1, June.
    18. Dmitry Matveev & Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2020. "Tariffs and the Exchange Rate : Evidence from Twitter," Cahiers de recherche 19-2020, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    19. Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Rosario Crinò & Gino Gancia, 2022. "Economic uncertainty and structural reforms: Evidence from stock market volatility," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), pages 467-504, May.
    20. Sugata Marjit & Anwesha Basu & C. Veeramani, 2019. "Growth Gains from Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 7905, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output; VAR; Protectionism; Macroeconomic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:42:y:2020:i:4:p:850-859. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.