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Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries

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  • Furceri, Davide
  • Hannan, Swarnali A.
  • Ostry, Jonathan D.
  • Rose, Andrew K.

Abstract

The empirical evidence on the growth effects of import tariffs is sparse in the literature, notwithstanding strong views held by the public and politicians. Using an annual panel of macroeconomic data for 151 countries over 1963–2014, we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically and statistically sizeable and persistent decline in output growth. Thus, fears that the ongoing trade war may be costly for the world economy in terms of foregone output growth are justified.

Suggested Citation

  • Furceri, Davide & Hannan, Swarnali A. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Rose, Andrew K., 2020. "Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 850-859.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:42:y:2020:i:4:p:850-859
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.03.009
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    Cited by:

    1. Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt & Kaspar Wüthrich, 2020. "Protectionism and Economic Growth: Causal Evidence from the First Era of Globalization," CESifo Working Paper Series 8759, CESifo.
    2. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2020. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 036, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output; VAR; Protectionism; Macroeconomic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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