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Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs

Author

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  • Rose, Andrew
  • Furceri, Davide
  • Ahmed Hannan, Swarnali
  • Ostry, Jonathan D.

Abstract

We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.

Suggested Citation

  • Rose, Andrew & Furceri, Davide & Ahmed Hannan, Swarnali & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2018. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs," CEPR Discussion Papers 13389, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13389
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Protection; Output; Productivity; Unemployment; Inequality; exchange rate; Trade balance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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