Modelling non-linear comovements between time series
The main objective of this paper is to employ a new dynamic model that combines the bivariate noisy Mackey-Glass recently proposed by Kyrtsou and Labys [Kyrtsou, C., Labys, W., 2006. Evidence for chaotic dependence between US inflation and commodity prices. Journal of Macroeconomics 28(1), 256-266; Kyrtsou, C., Labys, W., 2007. Detecting positive feedback in multivariate time series: the case of metal prices and US inflation. Physica A 377(1), 227-229.] and the BEKK Garch processes. An empirical exercise using the US effective Federal fund rates and 3-month T-Bill rates will show that for specific time periods the comovements between series are due to inherent non-linear deterministic dynamics.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kyrtsou, Catherine & Labys, Walter C., 2007. "Detecting positive feedback in multivariate time series: The case of metal prices and US inflation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 377(1), pages 227-229.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Jean Luc De Meulemeester & Claude Diebolt, 2007.
"How much could economics gain from history: the contribution of cliometrics,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/13500, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Jean-Luc Demeulemeester & Claude Diebolt, 2007. "How much could economics gain from history: the contribution of cliometrics," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 1(1), pages 7-17, April.
- Froyen, Richard T. & Waud, Roger N., 2002. "The determinants of Federal Reserve policy actions: A re-examination," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 413-428, September.
- Bali, Turan G. & Wu, Liuren, 2006. "A comprehensive analysis of the short-term interest-rate dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1269-1290, April.
- Haug Alfred A & Siklos Pierre L, 2006. "The Behavior of Short-Term Interest Rates: International Evidence of Non-Linear Adjustment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-34, December.
- Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L, 2002.
"The Dynamic Relationship Between the Federal Funds rate and the Treasury Bill Rate: An Empirical Investigation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3225, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2003. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1079-1110, June.
- Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: an empirical investigation," Working Papers 2000-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001.
"Chaotic Interest Rate Rules,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2001
259, Society for Computational Economics.
- Paul Brockman & Mustafa Chowdhury, 1997. "Deterministic versus stochastic volatility: implications for option pricing models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 499-505.
- Kyrtsou, Catherine & Labys, Walter C., 2006. "Evidence for chaotic dependence between US inflation and commodity prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 256-266, March.
- James B. Bullard & Alison Butler, 1992.
"Nonlinearity and chaos in economic models: implications for policy decisions,"
1991-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Bullard, James & Butler, Alison, 1993. "Nonlinearity and Chaos in Economic Models: Implications for Policy Decisions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(419), pages 849-867, July.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1975. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1113-1144, December.
- Kyrtsou, Catherine & Malliaris, Anastasios G., 2009. "The impact of information signals on market prices when agents have non-linear trading rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 167-176, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:31:y:2009:i:1:p:200-211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.