Detecting positive feedback in multivariate time series: The case of metal prices and US inflation
The objective of this paper is to examine causality and feedback relationships between primary commodity prices and US inflation. To this end, the bivariate noisy Mackey–Glass process recently developed by Kyrtsou and Labys [Evidence for chaotic dependence between US inflation and commodity prices, J. Macroecon. 28(1) (2006) 256–266] has been applied to assess this relationship. Results obtained support evidence in favour of causality, which can help to identify the influences of speculative price behaviour on inflation.
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Volume (Year): 377 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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- Xue-Zhong He & Frank H. Westerhoff, 2004.
"Commodity Markets, Price Limiters and Speculative Price Dynamics,"
Research Paper Series
136, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- He, Xue-Zhong & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2005. "Commodity markets, price limiters and speculative price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1577-1596, September.
- Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2006. "Comments on "Testing for nonlinear structure and chaos in economic time series"," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 169-174, March.
- Westerhoff, Frank & Reitz, Stefan, 2005. "Commodity price dynamics and the nonlinear market impact of technical traders: empirical evidence for the US corn market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 349(3), pages 641-648.
- Catherine Kyrtsou & Walter C. Labys & Michel Terraza, 2004. "Noisy chaotic dynamics in commodity markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 489-502, 09.
- LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233 Elsevier.
- Kyrtsou, Catherine & Labys, Walter C., 2006. "Evidence for chaotic dependence between US inflation and commodity prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 256-266, March.
- Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186 Elsevier.
- Catherine Kyrtsou & Michel Terraza, 2003. "Is it Possible to Study Chaotic and ARCH Behaviour Jointly? Application of a Noisy Mackey–Glass Equation with Heteroskedastic Errors to the Paris Stock Exchange Returns Series," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 257-276, June.
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