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Nonlinearity and chaos in economic models: implications for policy decisions

  • James Bullard
  • Alison Butler

This survey paper discusses the policy implications that can be expected from the recent research on nonlinearity and chaos in economic models. Expected policy implications are interpreted as a driving force behind the recent proliferation of research in this area. In general, it appears that no new justification for policy intervention is developed in models of endogenous fluctuations, although this conclusion depends in part on the definition of equilibrium. When justified, however, policy tends to be very effective in these models.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1991-002.

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Date of creation: 1992
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Publication status: Published in The Economic Journal , vol. 103, pp. 849-867 (July 1993)
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1991-002
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  1. repec:att:wimass:9117 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Grandmont Jean-michel, 1983. "On endogenous competitive business cycles," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8316, CEPREMAP.
  3. Friedman, Milton, 1971. "Government Revenue from Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 846-56, July-Aug..
  4. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
  5. Alison Butler, 1990. "A methodological approach to chaos: are economists missing the point?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 36-48.
  6. Kelsey, David, 1988. "The Economics of Chaos or the Chaos of Economics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-31, March.
  7. Baumol, William J. & Benhabib, Jess, 1987. "Chaos: Significance, Mechanism, and Economic Applications," Working Papers 87-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  8. Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1973. "Do Walras' identity and continuity characterize the class of community excess demand functions?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 345-354, August.
  9. William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," Macroeconomics 0503017, EconWPA.
  10. Becker, R.C. & Foias, C., 1992. "The Local Bifurcation of Ramsey Equilibrium," Papers 92-002, Indiana - Center for Econometric Model Research.
  11. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
  12. Michael Woodford, 1990. "Equilibrium Models of Endogenous Fluctuations: an Introduction," NBER Working Papers 3360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Boldrin, Michele & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos : A survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 189-222, March.
  14. Scheinkman, Jose A, 1990. "Nonlinearities in Economic Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 33-48, Supplemen.
  15. Ramsey, J.B. & Sayers, C.L. & Rothman, P., 1988. "The Statistical Properties Of Dimension Calculations Using Small Data Sets: Some Economic Applications," Papers 15, Houston - Department of Economics.
  16. Boldrin, Michele & Montrucchio, Luigi, 1986. "On the indeterminacy of capital accumulation paths," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 26-39, October.
  17. Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Stationary sunspot equilibria in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 128-137, October.
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