IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v234y2025ics0167268125001465.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Career paths in hierarchies: Theory and evidence from Chinese officials

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Jinghong
  • Liu, Zanhui
  • Yao, Yang

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamic patterns of job durations in a hierarchical government. Using a large dataset of Chinese officials from 1994 to 2017, we find systematic evidence that the promotion rates of officials at different levels of government are negatively correlated, contrary to the common finding of fast track in the literature. To characterize the career paths in hierarchies, we develop a dynamic model of optimal job assignments with symmetric learning. The model highlights the role of seniority in coping with the Type-II error, that is, the risk of over-evaluating an official’s ability. Only very capable officials are spared, and the fast track applies; relatively capable officials are subject to the over-evaluation risk, and their job durations are negatively correlated across levels of government. A negative correlation is also more likely to happen when the controller is more risk averse, which may explain mixed findings in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Jinghong & Liu, Zanhui & Yao, Yang, 2025. "Career paths in hierarchies: Theory and evidence from Chinese officials," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:234:y:2025:i:c:s0167268125001465
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268125001465
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107027?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petra Persson & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2016. "The Limits Of Career Concerns In Federalism: Evidence From China," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 338-374, April.
    2. Dan Bernhardt, 1995. "Strategic Promotion and Compensation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(2), pages 315-339.
    3. Margaret A. Meyer, 1991. "Learning from Coarse Information: Biased Contests and Career Profiles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(1), pages 15-41.
    4. Davidson, Russell & Flachaire, Emmanuel, 2008. "The wild bootstrap, tamed at last," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 162-169, September.
    5. Christian Belzil & Michael Bognanno, 2010. "The promotion dynamics of American executives," Research in Labor Economics, in: Jobs, Training, and Worker Well-being, pages 189-231, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Bernard Salanie & Julie Valentin, 1999. "Early Starters versus Late Beginners," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(4), pages 731-760, August.
    7. Robert Gibbons & Michael Waldman, 2006. "Enriching a Theory of Wage and Promotion Dynamics inside Firms," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(1), pages 59-108, January.
    8. Ariga, Kenn & Ohkusa, Yasushi & Brunello, Giorgio, 1999. "Fast track: is it in the genes? The promotion policy of a large Japanese firm," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 385-402, April.
    9. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460, Elsevier.
    10. repec:eme:rlec11:s0147-9121(2010)0000030009 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Li, Hongbin & Zhou, Li-An, 2005. "Political turnover and economic performance: the incentive role of personnel control in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1743-1762, September.
    12. Ruixue Jia & Masayuki Kudamatsu & David Seim, 2015. "Political Selection In China: The Complementary Roles Of Connections And Performance," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 631-668, August.
    13. Chen, Ting & Kung, J.K.-S., 2016. "Do land revenue windfalls create a political resource curse? Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 86-106.
    14. Seltzer, Andrew & Merrett, David T, 2000. "Personnel Policies at the Union Bank of Australia: Evidence from the 1888-1900 Entry Cohorts," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(4), pages 573-613, October.
    15. Junyan Jiang, 2018. "Making Bureaucracy Work: Patronage Networks, Performance Incentives, and Economic Development in China," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(4), pages 982-999, October.
    16. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01313799 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Treble, John & van Gameren, Edwin & Bridges, Sarah & Barmby, Tim, 2002. "Erratum to "The internal economics of the firm: further evidence from personnel data" [Labour Economics 8 (2001) 531-552]," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 133-135, February.
    18. Robert Gibbons & Michael Waldman, 1999. "A Theory of Wage and Promotion Dynamics Inside Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(4), pages 1321-1358.
    19. Cirone, Alexandra & Cox, Gary W. & Fiva, Jon H., 2021. "Seniority-Based Nominations and Political Careers," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 234-251, February.
    20. Shih, Victor & Adolph, Christopher & Liu, Mingxing, 2012. "Getting Ahead in the Communist Party: Explaining the Advancement of Central Committee Members in China," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 106(1), pages 166-187, February.
    21. Yang Yao & Muyang Zhang, 2015. "Subnational leaders and economic growth: evidence from Chinese cities," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 405-436, December.
    22. George Baker & Michael Gibbs & Bengt Holmstrom, 1994. "The Internal Economics of the Firm: Evidence from Personnel Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(4), pages 881-919.
    23. Bengt Holmström, 1999. "Managerial Incentive Problems: A Dynamic Perspective," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(1), pages 169-182.
    24. Yasheng Huang, 2002. "Managing Chinese Bureaucrats: An Institutional Economics Perspective," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 50(1), pages 61-79, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Catherine Haeck & Frank Verboven, 2012. "The Internal Economics of a University: Evidence from Personnel Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(3), pages 591-626.
    2. Bas Klaauw & António Dias da Silva, 2011. "Wage dynamics and promotions inside and between firms," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(4), pages 1513-1548, October.
    3. Waldman, Michael, 2013. "Classic promotion tournaments versus market-based tournaments," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 198-210.
    4. Anja Schöttner & Veikko Thiele, 2010. "Promotion Tournaments and Individual Performance Pay," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 699-731, September.
    5. Cassidy, Hugh & DeVaro, Jed & Kauhanen, Antti, 2016. "Promotion signaling, gender, and turnover: New theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 126(PA), pages 140-166.
    6. Jed DeVaro & Michael Waldman, 2012. "The Signaling Role of Promotions: Further Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 91-147.
    7. Kräkel, Matthias & Schöttner, Anja, 2008. "Relative Performance Pay, Bonuses, and Job-Promotion Tournaments," IZA Discussion Papers 3702, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Dohmen, Thomas J., 2004. "Performance, seniority, and wages: formal salary systems and individual earnings profiles," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 741-763, December.
    9. Suárez Serrato, Juan Carlos & Wang, Xiao Yu & Zhang, Shuang, 2019. "The limits of meritocracy: Screening bureaucrats under imperfect verifiability," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 223-241.
    10. Anders Frederiksen & Timothy Halliday & Alexander K. Koch, 2016. "Within- and Cross-Firm Mobility and Earnings Growth," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 69(2), pages 320-353, March.
    11. Danglun Luo & Congcong Liu & Lifan Wu, 2020. "Horizontal Networks and Economic Performance: Evidence from City Leaders in China," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1359-1373, July.
    12. Danqing Wang & Zhitao Zhu & Shuo Chen & Xiaowei Rose Luo, 2021. "Running out of steam? A political incentive perspective of FDI inflows in China," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 52(4), pages 692-717, June.
    13. Xue, Chang & Zhang, Xiaoyu, 2024. "Gloomy future, gloomy sky: Promotion incentives and pollution in China," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    14. Chen, Shawn Xiaoguang & Liu, Yong & Xu, Xianxiang, 2020. "Dynamics of Local Cadre Appointment in China11We are grateful to the editor Cheryl Long, and three referees for their valuable comments. Shawn Xiaoguang Chen thanks the support of Beijing Municipal Ed," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Takii, Katsuya & Sasaki, Masaru & Wan, Junmin, 2020. "Synchronized job transfer and task-specific human capital," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    16. Chen, Shuo & Qiao, Xue & Zhu, Zhitao, 2021. "Chasing or cheating? Theory and evidence on China's GDP manipulation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 657-671.
    17. Tian, Zhihua & Hu, An & Chen, Yang & Shao, Shuai, 2023. "Local officials’ tenure and CO2 emissions in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    18. Chang Xue & Xiaoyu Zhang, 2024. "Promotion prospects and policy choice: evidence from the land market in China," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 200(1), pages 119-147, July.
    19. Frederiksen, Anders & Halliday, Timothy J. & Koch, Alexander K., 2010. "What Do We Work For? An Anatomy of Pre- and Post-Tax Earnings Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 5298, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Jiang, Junyan & Mei, Yuan, 2020. "Mandarins make markets: Leadership rotations and inter-provincial trade in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • M51 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Firm Employment Decisions; Promotions
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:234:y:2025:i:c:s0167268125001465. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.