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Prospects for a re-acceleration of economic growth in the PRC

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, Justin Yifu
  • Wan, Guanghua
  • Morgan, Peter J.

Abstract

After more than three decades of unprecedented high growth at an average rate of nearly 10% per annum, China's economy has been slowing down since 2010, dropping to 6.9% in 2015, the lowest annual growth rate since 1990. As the world's largest economy in PPP terms and the second largest in terms of nominal exchange rates, such a slowdown has profound implications. The whole world is asking if the Chinese economy will continue to slow or be trapped in low growth. This paper presents a rather optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy, concluding that a reacceleration to 8% in the medium run is possible under favorable conditions. We argue that the main factors that led to the slowdown since 2010 are external and cyclical. Nevertheless, structural and institutional obstacles to the re-acceleration of growth are also discussed, together with policy suggestions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Justin Yifu & Wan, Guanghua & Morgan, Peter J., 2016. "Prospects for a re-acceleration of economic growth in the PRC," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 842-853.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:44:y:2016:i:4:p:842-853
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2016.08.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:taf:jocebs:v:15:y:2017:i:3:p:269-287 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Partridge, Mark D. & Yang, Benjian & Chen, Anping, 2017. "Do Border Effects Alter Regional Development: Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 82080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Akuru, Udochukwu B. & Onukwube, Ifeanyichukwu E. & Okoro, Ogbonnaya I. & Obe, Emeka S., 2017. "Towards 100% renewable energy in Nigeria," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 943-953.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    People’s Republic of China; Medium term growth; Supply-side factors; Demand-side factors; Total factor productivity;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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