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Posterior analysis of random taste coefficients in air travel behaviour modelling


  • Hess, Stephane


Increasing use is being made of random coefficients structures, such as mixed logit, in the analysis of air travel choice behaviour. These models have the advantage of being able to retrieve random variations in sensitivities across travellers. An important issue, however, arises in the computation of willingness to pay indicators, such as the valuation of travel time savings, on the basis of randomly distributed coefficients. Indeed, with the standard approach of using simulation of the ratios across random draws, major problems can be caused by outliers, leading to biased trade-offs, which in turn lead to major issues in policy analyses. Here, a different approach is explored, making use of individual-specific draws from the random distributions, conditioned on the observed sequence of choices for each respondent. An analysis making use of stated preference data for airport and airline choice confirms the advantages of the approach using conditional draws, producing much more realistic distributional patterns for a range of willingness to pay indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Hess, Stephane, 2007. "Posterior analysis of random taste coefficients in air travel behaviour modelling," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 203-212.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:13:y:2007:i:4:p:203-212
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2007.03.004

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bhat, Chandra R., 2001. "Quasi-random maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the mixed multinomial logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 677-693, August.
    2. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, May.
    3. Pels, Eric & Nijkamp, Peter & Rietveld, Piet, 2003. "Access to and competition between airports: a case study for the San Francisco Bay area," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 71-83, January.
    4. Basar, Gözen & Bhat, Chandra, 2004. "A parameterized consideration set model for airport choice: an application to the San Francisco Bay Area," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 889-904, December.
    5. Hess, Stephane & Bierlaire, Michel & Polak, John W., 2005. "Estimation of value of travel-time savings using mixed logit models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 221-236.
    6. Psaraki, Voula & Abacoumkin, Costas, 2002. "Access mode choice for relocated airports: the new Athens International Airport," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 89-98.
    7. Hess, Stephane & Adler, Thomas & Polak, John W., 2007. "Modelling airport and airline choice behaviour with the use of stated preference survey data," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 221-233, May.
    8. Hess, Stephane & Train, Kenneth E. & Polak, John W., 2006. "On the use of a Modified Latin Hypercube Sampling (MLHS) method in the estimation of a Mixed Logit Model for vehicle choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 147-163, February.
    9. Stephane Hess & John W. Polak, 2006. "Airport, airline and access mode choice in the San Francisco Bay area," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 85(4), pages 543-567, November.
    10. Hess, Stephane & Polak, John W., 2005. "Mixed logit modelling of airport choice in multi-airport regions," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 59-68.
    11. David Hensher & William Greene, 2003. "The Mixed Logit model: The state of practice," Transportation, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 133-176, May.
    12. Hess, Stephane & Polak, John W., 2006. "Exploring the potential for cross-nesting structures in airport-choice analysis: A case-study of the Greater London area," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 63-81, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Uchida, Hirotsugu & Onozaka, Yuko & Morita, Tamaki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2014. "Demand for ecolabeled seafood in the Japanese market: A conjoint analysis of the impact of information and interaction with other labels," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-76.
    2. de Lapparent, M., & Axhausen , K.W. & Frei, A., 2013. "Long distance mode choice and distributions of values of travel time savings in three European countries," European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, ISTIEE, Institute for the Study of Transport within the European Economic Integration, issue 53, pages 1-7.
    3. Hough, Gary & Hassanien, Ahmed, 2010. "Transport choice behaviour of Chinese and Australian tourists in Scotland," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 54-65.
    4. de Moraes Ramos, Giselle & Daamen, Winnie & Hoogendoorn, Serge, 2013. "Modelling travellers' heterogeneous route choice behaviour as prospect maximizers," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 17-33.
    5. Crespo-Almendros, E. & Del Barrio-García, S., 2016. "Online airline ticket purchasing: Influence of online sales promotion type and Internet experience," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 23-34.
    6. Hess, Stephane, 2010. "Evidence of passenger preferences for specific types of airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 191-195.
    7. Laura-Lucia Richter & Michael G. Pollitt, 2016. "Which Smart Electricity Service Contracts Will Consumers Accept? The demand for compensation in a platform market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1632, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Drabas, Tomasz & Wu, Cheng-Lung, 2013. "Modelling air carrier choices with a Segment Specific Cross Nested Logit model," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 8-16.
    9. Hess, Stephane & Rose, John M., 2009. "Allowing for intra-respondent variations in coefficients estimated on repeated choice data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 708-719, July.


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