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Estimation and prediction in the random effects model with AR(p) remainder disturbances

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  • Baltagi, Badi H.
  • Liu, Long

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of estimation and forecasting in a panel data model with random individual effects and AR(p) remainder disturbances. It utilizes a simple exact transformation for the AR(p) time series process derived by Baltagi and Li (1994) and obtains the generalized least squares estimator for this panel model as a least squares regression. This exact transformation is also used in conjunction with Goldberger’s (1962) result to derive an analytic expression for the best linear unbiased predictor. The performance of this predictor is investigated using Monte Carlo experiments and illustrated using an empirical example.

Suggested Citation

  • Baltagi, Badi H. & Liu, Long, 2013. "Estimation and prediction in the random effects model with AR(p) remainder disturbances," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 100-107.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:29:y:2013:i:1:p:100-107
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.07.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maeshiro, Asatoshi, 1976. "Autoregressive Transformation, Trended Independent Variables and Autocorrelated Disturbance Terms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(4), pages 497-500, November.
    2. Baltagi, Badi H. & Li, Qi, 1991. "A transformation that will circumvent the problem of autocorrelation in an error-component model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 385-393, June.
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    5. Badi H. Baltagi, 2008. "Forecasting with panel data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 153-173.
    6. Maeshiro, Asatoshi, 1979. "On the Retention of the First Observations in Serial Correlation Adjustment of Regression Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(1), pages 259-265, February.
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    8. Eugene Kouassi & Joel Sango & J. M. Bosson Brou & Francis N. Teubissi & Kern O. Kymn, 2011. "Prediction from the regression model with two‐way error components," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 541-564, September.
    9. Nerlove, Marc, 1971. "Further Evidence on the Estimation of Dynamic Economic Relations from a Time Series of Cross Sections," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(2), pages 359-382, March.
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    11. Taub, Allan J., 1979. "Prediction in the context of the variance-components model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 103-107, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prediction; Panel data; Random effects; Serial correlation; AR(p);

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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