IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfin/v37y2015icp54-76.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-horizon excess returns and exchange rate and interest rate effects

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph, Nathan Lael
  • Lambertides, Neophytos
  • Savva, Christos S.

Abstract

We examine the effects of foreign exchange (FX) and interest rate changes on the excess returns of U.S. stocks, for short-horizons of 1–40 days. Our new evidence shows a tendency for the volatility of both excess returns and FX rate changes to be negatively related with FX rate and interest rate effects. Both the number of firms with significant FX rate and interest rate effects and the magnitude of their exposures increase with the length of the return horizon. Our finding seems inconsistent with the view that firms hedge effectively at short-return horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph, Nathan Lael & Lambertides, Neophytos & Savva, Christos S., 2015. "Short-horizon excess returns and exchange rate and interest rate effects," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 54-76.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:37:y:2015:i:c:p:54-76
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2015.04.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443115000530
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael F. Ferguson & Richard L. Shockley, 2003. "Equilibrium "Anomalies"," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2549-2580, December.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    3. Abdullah Iqbal & Ortenca Kume, 2014. "Impact of Financial Crisis on Firms’ Capital Structure in UK, France, and Germany," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 18(3-4), pages 249-280, September.
    4. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2005. "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1535-1566, June.
    5. Bartov, Eli & Bodnar, Gordon M. & Kaul, Aditya, 1996. "Exchange rate variability and the riskiness of U.S. multinational firms: Evidence from the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 105-132, September.
    6. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    7. Fehle, Frank & Tsyplakov, Sergey, 2005. "Dynamic risk management: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 3-47, October.
    8. Robert W Faff & Andrew Marshall, 2005. "International evidence on the determinants of foreign exchange rate exposure of multinational corporations," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 36(5), pages 539-558, September.
    9. Yanbo Jin & Philippe Jorion, 2006. "Firm Value and Hedging: Evidence from U.S. Oil and Gas Producers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 893-919, April.
    10. Fraser, Steve P. & Pantzalis, Christos, 2004. "Foreign exchange rate exposure of US multinational corporations: a firm-specific approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 261-281, July.
    11. Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2005. "Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Smooth Transitions in Conditional Correlations," Research Paper Series 168, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    12. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    13. Walter Dolde, 1993. "The Trajectory Of Corporate Financial Risk Management," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 6(3), pages 33-41.
    14. Christos Pantzalis & Betty J Simkins & Paul A Laux, 2001. "Operational Hedges and the Foreign Exchange Exposure of U.S. Multinational Corporations," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 32(4), pages 793-812, December.
    15. Francisco Pérez-González & Hayong Yun, 2013. "Risk Management and Firm Value: Evidence from Weather Derivatives," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 2143-2176, October.
    16. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy T. Simin, 2003. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1393-1414, August.
    17. Prasad, Anita Mehra & Rajan, Murli, 1995. "The role of exchange and interest risk in equity valuation: A comparative study of international stock markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 457-472, December.
    18. Brandt, Michael W. & Wang, Kevin Q., 2003. "Time-varying risk aversion and unexpected inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1457-1498, October.
    19. Muller, A. & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2008. "The Latin American exchange exposure of U.S. multinationals," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 112-130, April.
    20. Chkili, Walid & Aloui, Chaker & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Asymmetric effects and long memory in dynamic volatility relationships between stock returns and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 738-757.
    21. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    22. Bartov, Eli & Bodnar, Gordon M, 1994. " Firm Valuation, Earnings Expectations, and the Exchange-Rate Exposure Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1755-1785, December.
    23. Angelos Kanas, 2000. "Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Changes: International Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3&4), pages 447-467.
    24. Jongmoo Jay Choi & Anita Mehra Prasad, 1995. "Exchange Risk Sensitivity and Its Determinants: A Firm and Industry Analysis of U.S. Multinationals," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 24(3), Fall.
    25. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1998. "Information and volatility linkages in the stock, bond, and money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 111-137, July.
    26. Jia He & Lilian K. Ng, 1998. "The Foreign Exchange Exposure of Japanese Multinational Corporations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 733-753, April.
    27. Ralitsa Petkova, 2006. "Do the Fama-French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 581-612, April.
    28. Elaine Hutson & Simon Stevenson, 2010. "Openness, hedging incentives and foreign exchange exposure: A firm-level multi-country study," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 41(1), pages 105-122, January.
    29. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    30. Gordon M. Bodnar & Gregory S. Hayt & Richard C. Marston, 1998. "1998 Wharton Survey of Financial Risk Management by US Non-Financial Firms," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(4), Winter.
    31. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
    32. Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-345, July.
    33. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    34. Jayasinghe, Prabhath & Tsui, Albert K., 2008. "Exchange rate exposure of sectoral returns and volatilities: Evidence from Japanese industrial sectors," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 639-660, December.
    35. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Tesar, Linda L., 2006. "Exchange rate exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 188-218, January.
    36. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    37. Ross, Stephen A, 1989. " Information and Volatility: The No-Arbitrage Martingale Approach to Timing and Resolution Irrelevancy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-17, March.
    38. Simpson, Marc W. & Ramchander, Sanjay, 2008. "An inquiry into the economic fundamentals of the Fama and French equity factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 801-815, December.
    39. Gordon M. Bodnar & Gregory S. Hayt & Richard C. Marston, 1996. "1995 Wharton Survey of Derivatives Usage by US Non-Financial Firms," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 25(4), Winter.
    40. Muller, Aline & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2006. "Asymmetric foreign exchange risk exposure: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 495-518, October.
    41. Chow, Edward H & Lee, Wayne Y & Solt, Michael E, 1997. "The Economic Exposure of U.S. Multinational Firms," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 191-210, Summer.
    42. Gordon M. Bodnar & M.H. Franco Wong, 2003. "Estimating Exchange Rate Exposures: Issues in Model Structure," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 32(1), Spring.
    43. Chen, Yong, 2011. "Derivatives Use and Risk Taking: Evidence from the Hedge Fund Industry," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(04), pages 1073-1106, September.
    44. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    45. Aline Muller & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2006. "European Foreign Exchange Risk Exposure," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(2), pages 195-220.
    46. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou, 2012. "Foreign exchange volatility and stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1202-1216.
    47. Marston, Richard C., 2001. "The effects of industry structure on economic exposure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 149-164, April.
    48. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    49. Cornaggia, Jess, 2013. "Does risk management matter? Evidence from the U.S. agricultural industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 419-440.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:ecolet:v:159:y:2017:i:c:p:204-207 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate and interest rate effects; Smooth transition function; Bivariate GJR-GARCH-M; Time-varying conditional correlations; Fama–French–Carhart (FFC) factors;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:37:y:2015:i:c:p:54-76. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.