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Preventive wars

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  • Abbink, Klaus
  • Dong, Lu
  • Huang, Lingbo

Abstract

The rise of a new power may lead the dominant power to seek a preventive war. We study this scenario in an experimental two-stage bargaining game. In each stage, the rising power makes a bargaining offer and the declining power must choose whether to accept it or fight. Between the two stages, the winning probability shifts towards the rising power. We find fewer preventive wars when the power shift is smaller and when the rising state has the commitment power. Communication and repeated interaction decrease the likelihood of preventive wars. High fighting costs almost eliminate such wars when the rising power's first-stage offer is sufficiently large.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbink, Klaus & Dong, Lu & Huang, Lingbo, 2023. "Preventive wars," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 552-569.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:142:y:2023:i:c:p:552-569
    DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2023.08.018
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Klaus Abbink & Lu Dong & Lingbo Huang, 2022. "Preventive Wars," Discussion Papers 2022-01, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.

    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fearon, James D., 1995. "Rationalist explanations for war," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 379-414, July.
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    3. Kimbrough, Erik O. & Sheremeta, Roman M., 2013. "Side-payments and the costs of conflict," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 278-286.
    4. Krainin, Colin, 2017. "Preventive War as a Result of Long-Term Shifts in Power," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 103-121, January.
    5. Kimbrough, Erik O. & Sheremeta, Roman M. & Shields, Timothy W., 2014. "When parity promotes peace: Resolving conflict between asymmetric agents," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 96-108.
    6. Emmanuel Dechenaux & Dan Kovenock & Roman Sheremeta, 2015. "A survey of experimental research on contests, all-pay auctions and tournaments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(4), pages 609-669, December.
    7. Sandeep Baliga & Tomas Sjostrom, 2013. "Bargaining and War: A Review of Some Formal Models," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 29, pages 235-266.
    8. Coursey, Don L. & Stanley, Linda R., 1988. "Pretrial bargaining behavior within the shadow of the law: Theory and experimental evidence," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 161-179, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    3. Juhyun Lee & Byunghoon Kim & Suneung Ahn, 2019. "Maintenance Optimization for Repairable Deteriorating Systems under Imperfect Preventive Maintenance," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-17, August.
    4. Monika Górska & Marta Daroń, 2021. "Importance of Machine Modernization in Energy Efficiency Management of Manufacturing Companies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-19, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Power shift; Commitment; Bargaining; Conflict; Communication;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative

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