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Preventive War as a Result of Long-Term Shifts in Power

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  • Krainin, Colin

Abstract

This paper analyzes a complete information model of preventive war where shifts in the distribution of power play out over an arbitrary number of time periods. This analysis leads to a sufficient condition that implies war under a broader set of conditions than previously shown in the literature. This sufficient condition leads to two substantive implications: (1) preventive war can be caused by relatively slow, but persistent shifts in the distribution of power; and (2) a power shift that causes war may do so only after some delay. These insights serve to connect the long-term shifts emphasized in Power Transition Theory with the commitment problem explanation for preventive war analyzed in bargaining models of war.

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  • Krainin, Colin, 2017. "Preventive War as a Result of Long-Term Shifts in Power," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 103-121, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:pscirm:v:5:y:2017:i:01:p:103-121_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Abbink, Klaus & Dong, Lu & Huang, Lingbo, 2023. "Preventive wars," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 552-569.
      • Klaus Abbink & Lu Dong & Lingbo Huang, 2022. "Preventive Wars," Discussion Papers 2022-01, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.

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