Financially optimized management planning under risk aversion results in even-flow sustained timber yield
The effect of explicit integration of uncertainty – determined through financial, non-linear optimization – on the distribution of timber harvests and net revenues over time was examined. A management plan for a 30year period was developed for (1) a Bavarian municipal forest rich in standing timber, and (2) a hypothetical forest enterprise with even-aged stands which were based on actual growth data from the municipal forest. Maximization of net present value (NPV) – which implicitly accounts for uncertainty by discounting future returns – was contrasted with two alternative objective functions which explicitly account for uncertainty: maximization of the certainty equivalent (CE) and of the value-at-risk (VAR). The sources of risk considered were hazard probabilities of trees, and price volatility. Periodic harvest volumes and resulting net revenues were smoothest and increasingly more consistent when VAR was maximized, while NPV maximization encouraged sudden, unbalanced outputs. The enterprise value – measured by NPV – was reduced by 16%. The impact of risk aversion was slightly less pronounced when initial age-class structure more closely resembled a fully regulated forest. Yet, the coefficients of variation for harvests and net revenues were reduced to 14% and 21%. However, risk aversion offered a more effective hedge than age-class structure.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gregory S. Amacher & Markku Ollikainen & Erkki A. Koskela, 2009. "Economics of Forest Resources," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012480, July.
- Ackerman, Frank & Stanton, Elizabeth A. & Hope, Chris & Alberth, Stephane, 2009. "Did the Stern Review underestimate US and global climate damages?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2717-2721, July.
- Rammel, Christian & Stagl, Sigrid & Wilfing, Harald, 2007. "Managing complex adaptive systems -- A co-evolutionary perspective on natural resource management," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 9-21, June.
- J. Brian Hardaker & Louise H. Patten & David J. Pannell, 1988.
"Utility‐Efficient Programming For Whole‐Farm Planning,"
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 32(2-3), pages 88-97, 08-12.
- Hardaker, J. Brian & Patten, Louise H. & Pannell, David J., 1988. "Utility-Efficient Programming For Whole-Farm Planning," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 32(02-03).
- Frank Krysiak, 2009. "Sustainability and its relation to efficiency under uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 41(2), pages 297-315, November.
- Hildebrandt, Patrick & Knoke, Thomas, 2011. "Investment decisions under uncertainty--A methodological review on forest science studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
- Pannell, David J. & Malcolm, Bill & Kingwell, Ross S., 2000. "Are we risking too much? Perspectives on risk in farm modelling," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 69-78, June.
- Pannell, David J. & Malcolm, Bill & Kingwell, Ross S., 2000. "Are we risking too much? Perspectives on risk in farm modelling," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 23(1), June.
- William D. Nordhaus, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 686-702, September.
- Stefan Bayer, 2004. "Nachhaltigkeitskonforme Diskontierung: das Konzept des "Generation Adjusted Discounting"," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 73(1), pages 142-157.
- Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl & Helles, Finn, 2006. "Adaptive and nonadaptive harvesting in uneven-aged beech forest with stochastic prices," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 223-238, April.
- Frank Krysiak, 2009. "Risk Management as a Tool for Sustainability," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 85(3), pages 483-492, April.
- Richard B. Howarth, 2009. "Discounting, Uncertainty, and Revealed Time Preference," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(1), pages 24-40.
- Hildebrandt, Patrick & Knoke, Thomas, 2009. "Optimizing the shares of native tree species in forest plantations with biased financial parameters," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(11), pages 2825-2833, September.
- Eeckhoudt, Louis & Hansen, P, 1989. "Minimum Prices and Optimal Production under Multiple," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 16(3), pages 411-418.
- Clasen, Christian & Griess, Verena C. & Knoke, Thomas, 2011. "Financial consequences of losing admixed tree species: A new approach to value increased financial risks by ungulate browsing," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 503-511, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:30-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.