How demand-side incentive policies drive the diffusion of forest wellness tourism products: An agent-based modeling analysis

The market share of forest wellness tourism is relatively low, and there is an urgent need to formulate effective promotion strategies. However, there is a lack of research on the effectiveness of diffusion incentive policies tailored to the characteristics of forest wellness tourism products. Moreover, the interdependent decision-making process among consumers adds complexity to policy evaluation. To this end, the study develops a micro-level diffusion model for forest wellness tourism products based on the infectious disease model. Using agent-based modeling (ABM), it simulates the diffusion processes of different tiers of forest wellness tourism products under various demand-side incentive policies and examines the relative effectiveness of different policy measures and their combinations. The simulation results show that: ① When the subsidy intensity exceeds 0.5, the diminishing effect on the promotion of the diffusion of comfort-oriented forest wellness tourism products becomes more apparent. ② Implementing wellness base certification policies in comfort-oriented forest wellness tourism products has a stronger effect on the final diffusion outcome. ③ Relying solely on information promotion policies to diffuse comfort-oriented forest wellness tourism products is a long-term process. ④ The priority of policy implementation varies depending on the different levels of products. ⑤ To enhance cost-effectiveness and sustainability, economic and non-economic incentive policies should be combined to promote forest wellness tourism products. The research results provide a scientific basis for relevant government departments to deeply understand the micro-logic of changes in the forest wellness tourism market and optimize relevant incentive policies.