Is there a future for smallholder farmers in bioeconomy? The case of ‘improved’ seeds in South Punjab, Pakistan

Smallholder farmers are key players in agrarian value chains, particularly in the Global South. In the planning of technology-oriented agricultural interventions featured prominently in bioeconomy policies they are however often neglected. As global demand for food and biomass is expected to rise, production increase through (bio)technological means is framed as a necessity. Yet its ecological and social sustainability has been debated. We add to this debate by investigating the possibilities and challenges for smallholder farmers to participate in the intensification of production in an emerging bioeconomy. We scrutinize the case of Pakistan, an agricultural country where 65% of farms operate less than 2 ha of land and where bioeconomy approaches such as biotechnology and advanced plant breeding have gained momentum in policy debates. We specifically analyze a cornerstone of the bioeconomy value chain—namely ‘improved’ seed varieties by looking at the experiences of smallholder farmers with genetically modified cotton and hybrid maize. We build on qualitative data from South Punjab collected between 2019 and 2022. Smallholders value improved seeds. However, the poorest strata are hindered from adopting improved seed varieties due to lack of resources, established crop rotation patterns, and frequent oscillations of the cropping trends. Market and climatic factors also limit the profitability of improved seed varieties as higher input costs disproportionately affect smallholder farmers. Furthermore, highly productive crops and frequent crop cycles result in surging tenancy rates for smallholders and can lead to their expulsion from agriculture. Our results contribute to the understanding of the complex role of smallholder farmers in the Global South under a bioeconomy scenario.