IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finsta/v80y2025ics1572308925000841.html

Monetary policy transmission via nonbank lending: Evidence from peer-to-peer loans

Author

Listed:
  • Argudo, Esteban

Abstract

I use data on unsecured consumer loans from Lending Club to study how peer-to-peer lending markets respond to monetary policy shocks. I find that both loan supply and demand decrease following unexpected increases in the federal funds rate. The contraction in supply is smallest for risky borrowers, while the decline in demand is largest for these borrowers. In contrast, both demand and supply increase following surprise LSAP contractions, with the increases being largest for risky borrowers. These findings suggest that peer-to-peer lending dampens the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in unsecured consumer credit markets while increasing risk-taking.

Suggested Citation

  • Argudo, Esteban, 2025. "Monetary policy transmission via nonbank lending: Evidence from peer-to-peer loans," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:80:y:2025:i:c:s1572308925000841
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101455
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572308925000841
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101455?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas C. Petruzzi & Maqbool Dada, 1999. "Pricing and the Newsvendor Problem: A Review with Extensions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 183-194, April.
    2. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    4. Christoph Bertsch & Isaiah Hull & Xin Zhang, 2021. "Monetary Normalizations and Consumer Credit: Evidence from Fed Liftoff and Online Lending," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(71), pages 1-47, December.
    5. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2014. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3154-3185, October.
    6. Cornelli, Giulio & De Fiore, Fiorella & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Manea, Cristina, 2024. "Fintech vs bank credit: How do they react to monetary policy?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    7. Kishan, Ruby P & Opiela, Timothy P, 2000. "Bank Size, Bank Capital, and the Bank Lending Channel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 121-141, February.
    8. Tertilt, Michèle & Exler, Florian, 2020. "Consumer Debt and Default: A Macroeconomic Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 14425, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. De Fiore, Fiorella & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Manea, Cristina, 2023. "Big Techs and the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 18217, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Exler, Florian & Tertilt, Michèle, 2020. "Consumer Debt and Default: A Macro Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 12966, IZA Network @ LISER.
    11. Greg Buchak & Gregor Matvos & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2024. "Beyond the Balance Sheet Model of Banking: Implications for Bank Regulation and Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(2), pages 616-693.
    12. Igor Livshits & James MacGee & Michèle Tertilt, 2007. "Consumer Bankruptcy: A Fresh Start," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 402-418, March.
    13. Hasan, Iftekhar & Kwak, Boreum & Li, Xiang, 2024. "Financial technologies and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    14. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    15. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    16. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    17. Anh Nguyet Vu, 2025. "The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policies on loan default risk—Evidence from UK peer‐to‐peer lending platforms," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 242-260, January.
    18. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326.
    19. Franklin Allen & Xian Gu & Julapa Jagtiani, 2021. "A Survey of Fintech Research and Policy Discussion," Review of Corporate Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(3-4), pages 259-339, July.
    20. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    21. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae & Makoto Nakajima & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2007. "A Quantitative Theory of Unsecured Consumer Credit with Risk of Default," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1525-1589, November.
    22. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 221-261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Kaiji Chen & Jue Ren & Tao Zha, 2018. "The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3891-3936, December.
    24. Dominic Cucic & Denis Gorea, 2024. "Non-bank lending and the transmission of monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 1211, Bank for International Settlements.
    25. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2017. "The Deposits Channel of Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1819-1876.
    26. Jeffrey I. McGill & Garrett J. van Ryzin, 1999. "Revenue Management: Research Overview and Prospects," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 233-256, May.
    27. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis, 2015. "Trusting the bankers: A new look at the credit channel of monetary policy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 18(4), pages 979-1002.
    28. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Neale Mahoney & Johannes Stroebel, 2018. "Do Banks Pass through Credit Expansions to Consumers Who want to Borrow?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 129-190.
    29. Huang, Yiping & Li, Xiang & Qiu, Han & Su, Dan & Yu, Changhua, 2024. "Bigtech credit, small business, and monetary policy transmission: Theory and evidence," IWH Discussion Papers 18/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2024.
    30. Drechsler, Itamar & Savov, Alexi & Schnabl, Philipp, 2022. "How monetary policy shaped the housing boom," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 992-1021.
    31. Exler, Florian & Tertilt, Michèle, 2020. "Consumer Debt and Default: A Macro Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 12966, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    32. Marco Di Maggio & Vincent Yao, 2021. "Fintech Borrowers: Lax Screening or Cream-Skimming?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(10), pages 4565-4618.
    33. Balyuk, Tetyana & Davydenko, Sergei, 2024. "Reintermediation in FinTech: Evidence from Online Lending," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 59(5), pages 1997-2037, August.
    34. Exler, Florian & Tertilt, Michèle, 2020. "Consumer Debt and Default: A Macro Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 12966, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    35. Wedad Elmaghraby & P{i}nar Keskinocak, 2003. "Dynamic Pricing in the Presence of Inventory Considerations: Research Overview, Current Practices, and Future Directions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(10), pages 1287-1309, October.
    36. Kairong Xiao & Francesca Cornelli, 2020. "Monetary Transmission through Shadow Banks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2379-2420.
    37. Huang, Yiping & Li, Xiang & Wang, Chu, 2021. "What does peer-to-peer lending evidence say about the Risk-Taking Channel of monetary policy?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hasan, Iftekhar & Kwak, Boreum & Li, Xiang, 2024. "Financial technologies and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    2. Lim, Hyunjoon, 2025. "Do firm and lender characteristics matter in monetary policy transmission? Evidence from Korean loan-level data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 256-268.
    3. Damast, Dominik & Kubitza, Christian & Sørensen, Jakob Ahm, 2025. "Homeowners insurance and the transmission of monetary policy," ICIR Working Paper Series 55/25, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    4. Delis, Manthos & Hong, Sizhe & Paltalidis, Nikos & Philip, Dennis, 2020. "Forward Guidance and Corporate Lending," MPRA Paper 98159, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, May.
    6. Peydró, José-Luis & Jasova, Martina & Mendicino, Caterina & Panetti, Ettore & Supera, Dominik, 2021. "Monetary Policy, Labor Income Redistribution and the Credit Channel: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee and Credit Registe," CEPR Discussion Papers 16549, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Acharya, Viral V. & Imbierowicz, Björn & Steffen, Sascha & Teichmann, Daniel, 2020. "Does the lack of financial stability impair the transmission of monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 342-365.
    8. Dominic Cucic & Denis Gorea, 2024. "Non-bank lending and the transmission of monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 1211, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Huang, Yiping & Li, Xiang & Qiu, Han & Su, Dan & Yu, Changhua, 2024. "Bigtech credit, small business, and monetary policy transmission: Theory and evidence," IWH Discussion Papers 18/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2024.
    10. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Max Breitenlechner & Johann Scharler, 2018. "How does monetary policy influence bank lending? Evidence from the market for banks' wholesale funding," Working Papers 2018-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    12. Altavilla, Carlo & Laeven, Luc & Peydró, José-Luis, 2020. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Complementarities: evidence from European credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15539, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Grandi, Pietro & Guille, Marianne, 2023. "Banks, deposit rigidity and negative rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Ippolito, Filippo & Ozdagli, Ali K. & Perez-Orive, Ander, 2018. "The transmission of monetary policy through bank lending: The floating rate channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-71.
    15. Ali Choudhary & Amjad Ali & Shah Hussain & Vasco J. Gabriel, 2012. "Bank Lending and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from a Developing Economy," SBP Working Paper Series 45, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    16. Eunkyung Lee, 2023. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy to Corporate Investment: The Role of Loan Renegotiation," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2310, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    17. Coussin, Maximilien, 2025. "The multifaceted effect of monetary policy on U.S. credit aggregates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Ozan Güler & Mike Mariathasan & Klaas Mulier & Nejat G. Okatan, 2021. "The real effects of banks' corporate credit supply: A literature review," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1252-1285, July.
    19. Lu, Jiajun & Lv, Linying & Wang, Yizhong & Zhu, Yueteng, 2025. "The real effect of monetary policy under uncertainty: Evidence from the change in corporate financing purposes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    20. Amjad Ali & M. Ali Choudhary & Shah Hussain & Vasco J. Gabriel, 2012. "Bank Lending and Monetary Shocks: an Empirical Investigation," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0212, School of Economics, University of Surrey.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:80:y:2025:i:c:s1572308925000841. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.