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The paradox of macroprudential policy and sovereign risk

Author

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  • Afonso, António
  • Teixeira, André

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of macroprudential policy on sovereign risk. As long as macroprudential policy improves financial stability, it lowers sovereign risk and enables governments to increase spending without raising taxes. Consequently, countries with tighter macroprudential policies have lower primary budget balances and accumulate government debt over time. However, this effect diminishes or reverses when there is excessive regulation or high levels of debt. These findings are somewhat paradoxical: macroprudential policy may lower private debt, while increasing public debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Afonso, António & Teixeira, André, 2025. "The paradox of macroprudential policy and sovereign risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:78:y:2025:i:c:s1572308925000403
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101411
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank regulation; Fiscal policy; Government spending; Macroprudential policy; Sovereign risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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