IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finsta/v78y2025ics1572308925000403.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The paradox of macroprudential policy and sovereign risk

Author

Listed:
  • Afonso, António
  • Teixeira, André

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of macroprudential policy on sovereign risk. As long as macroprudential policy improves financial stability, it lowers sovereign risk and enables governments to increase spending without raising taxes. Consequently, countries with tighter macroprudential policies have lower primary budget balances and accumulate government debt over time. However, this effect diminishes or reverses when there is excessive regulation or high levels of debt. These findings are somewhat paradoxical: macroprudential policy may lower private debt, while increasing public debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Afonso, António & Teixeira, André, 2025. "The paradox of macroprudential policy and sovereign risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:78:y:2025:i:c:s1572308925000403
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101411
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572308925000403
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101411?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Akinci, Ozge & Olmstead-Rumsey, Jane, 2018. "How effective are macroprudential policies? An empirical investigation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 33-57.
    2. Reint Gropp & Thomas Mosk & Steven Ongena & Carlo Wix, 2019. "Banks Response to Higher Capital Requirements: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 266-299.
    3. Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pv1j341, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    4. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2017. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(3), pages 1427-1467.
    5. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    6. Emmanuel Farhi & Iván Werning, 2016. "A Theory of Macroprudential Policies in the Presence of Nominal Rigidities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1645-1704, September.
    7. Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 2013. "The Procyclical Effects of Bank Capital Regulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 452-490.
    8. Cozzi, Gabriele & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Karadi, Peter & Körner, Jenny & Kok, Christoffer & Mazelis, Falk & Nikolov, Kalin & Rancoita, Elena & Van der Ghote, Alejandro & Weber, Julien, 2020. "Macroprudential policy measures: macroeconomic impact and interaction with monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2376, European Central Bank.
    9. Frost, Jon & van Stralen, René, 2018. "Macroprudential policy and income inequality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 278-290.
    10. André Teixeira & Zoë Venter, 2023. "Macroprudential Policy and Aggregate Demand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(4), pages 1-40, October.
    11. Manthos D. Delis & Iftekhar Hasan & Pantelis Kazakis, 2014. "Bank Regulations and Income Inequality: Empirical Evidence," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(5), pages 1811-1846.
    12. Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pv1j341, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    13. Richter, Björn & Schularick, Moritz & Shim, Ilhyock, 2019. "The costs of macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 263-282.
    14. Javier Alvarez & Manuel Arellano, 2003. "The Time Series and Cross-Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1121-1159, July.
    15. Van der Ghote, Alejandro, 2020. "Benefits of macro-prudential policy in low interest rate environments," Working Paper Series 2498, European Central Bank.
    16. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Bank governance, regulation and risk taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 259-275, August.
    17. Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2018. "Systemic Banking Crises Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2018/206, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326.
    19. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
    20. Giovanni Dell’ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, March.
    21. Zohair Alam & Adrian Alter & Jesse Eiseman & Gaston Gelos & Heedon Kang & Machiko Narita & Erlend Nier & Naixi Wang, 2025. "Digging Deeper—Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(5), pages 1135-1166, August.
    22. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    23. Acharya, Viral V. & Steffen, Sascha, 2015. "The “greatest” carry trade ever? Understanding eurozone bank risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 215-236.
    24. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Laeven, Luc, 2017. "The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 203-224.
    25. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Macroprudential Policy: What Instruments and How to Use them? Lessons From Country Experiences," IMF Working Papers 2011/238, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
    27. Jérôme Vandenbussche & Ursula Vogel & Enrica Detragiache, 2015. "Macroprudential Policies and Housing Prices: A New Database and Empirical Evidence for Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 343-377, March.
    28. Teixeira, André, 2023. "Does macroprudential policy affect wealth inequality? Evidence from synthetic controls," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    29. Cokayne, Graeme & Gerba, Eddie & Kuchler, Andreas & Pank Roulund, Rasmus, 2024. "“Thank me later”: Why is (macro)prudence desirable?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    30. Paolo Angelini & Stefano Neri & Fabio Panetta, 2014. "The Interaction between Capital Requirements and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(6), pages 1073-1112, September.
    31. Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João, 2019. "Quantitative easing and sovereign yield spreads: Euro-area time-varying evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 208-224.
    32. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Central bank independence and financial instability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 321-338, December.
    33. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    34. Teixeira, André, 2022. "The real effects of macroprudential policy: Evidence from micro data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 1165-1178.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kristin J. Forbes, 2021. "The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 203-228, August.
    2. Garcia Revelo, José David & Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2020. "Macroprudential and monetary policies: The need to dance the Tango in harmony," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. António Afonso & André Teixeira, 2023. "Bank Regulation and Sovereign Risk: A Paradox," Working Papers REM 2023/0272, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Das, Mitali & Ordal, Hailey, 2022. "Macroeconomic stability or financial stability: How are capital controls used? Insights from a new database," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    6. Avril, Pauline & Levieuge, Grégory & Turcu, Camelia, 2025. "Natural disasters and financial stress: can macroprudential regulation tame green swans?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    7. Salma Gallas & Houssam Bouzgarrou & Montassar Zayati, 2024. "Balancing financial stability and economic growth: a comprehensive analysis of macroprudential regulation," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1005-1033, December.
    8. Sever, Can & Yücel, Emekcan, 2022. "The effects of elections on macroprudential policy," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 507-533.
    9. Belkhir, Mohamed & Naceur, Sami Ben & Candelon, Bertrand & Wijnandts, Jean-Charles, 2022. "Macroprudential policies, economic growth and banking crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    10. Tiago F. A. Matos & João C. A. Teixeira & Tiago M. Dutra, 2023. "The contribution of macroprudential policies to banks' resilience: Lessons from the systemic crises and the COVID‐19 pandemic shock," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 794-830, December.
    11. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    12. William Gatt, 2024. "Loan‐to‐value limits as a macroprudential policy tool: Developments in theory and practice," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 232-267, February.
    13. Teixeira, André, 2023. "Does macroprudential policy affect wealth inequality? Evidence from synthetic controls," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    15. Madeira, Carlos, 2024. "The impact of macroprudential policies on industrial growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    16. Mircea Epure & Irina Mihai & Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró, 2024. "Global Financial Cycle, Household Credit, and Macroprudential Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(11), pages 8096-8115, November.
    17. Andrea Ferrero & Richard Harrison & Benjamin Nelson, 2024. "House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(2), pages 940-971.
    18. Yang, Jin Young & Suh, Hyunduk, 2023. "Heterogeneous effects of macroprudential policies on firm leverage and value," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    19. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Leonardo Gambacorta & Enisse Kharroubi & Enisse Kharroubi, 2018. "The effects of prudential regulation, financial development and financial openness on economic growth," BIS Working Papers 752, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Marcin Czaplicki, 2022. "Measuring the restrictiveness of (macro)prudential policy: the case of bank capital regulation in Poland," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(3), pages 322-338, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:78:y:2025:i:c:s1572308925000403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.