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Bank Regulation and Sovereign Risk: A Paradox

Author

Listed:
  • António Afonso
  • André Teixeira

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of banking prudential regulation on sovereign risk. We show that prudential regulation reduces sovereign risk and induces governments to spend more. As a result, countries with tight prudential regulation have lower primary budget balances and accumulate more government debt over time. This means that prudential regulation reduces private debt, while paradoxically increasing government debt. We explore several explanations for this paradox. Our results suggest that prudential regulation enables governments to accumulate debt because they improve the nation’s credit rating and its borrowing conditions in sovereign bond markets.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & André Teixeira, 2023. "Bank Regulation and Sovereign Risk: A Paradox," Working Papers REM 2023/0272, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp02722023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Javier Alvarez & Manuel Arellano, 2003. "The Time Series and Cross-Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1121-1159, July.
    2. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
    3. Giovanni Dell’ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, March.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Macroprudential Policy: What Instruments and How to Use them? Lessons From Country Experiences," IMF Working Papers 2011/238, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Stephan Dieckmann & Thomas Plank, 2012. "Default Risk of Advanced Economies: An Empirical Analysis of Credit Default Swaps during the Financial Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(4), pages 903-934.
    6. Teixeira, André, 2023. "Does macroprudential policy affect wealth inequality? Evidence from synthetic controls," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Paolo Angelini & Stefano Neri & Fabio Panetta, 2014. "The Interaction between Capital Requirements and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(6), pages 1073-1112, September.
    8. Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João, 2019. "Quantitative easing and sovereign yield spreads: Euro-area time-varying evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 208-224.
    9. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Central bank independence and financial instability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 321-338, December.
    10. Doumpos, Michael & Gaganis, Chrysovalantis & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2015. "Central bank independence, financial supervision structure and bank soundness: An empirical analysis around the crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S1), pages 69-83.
    11. Teixeira, André, 2022. "The real effects of macroprudential policy: Evidence from micro data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 1165-1178.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank regulation; fiscal policy; macroprudential policy; sovereign debt; sovereign risk.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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