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CO2 emissions and financial development in an emerging economy: An augmented VAR approach


  • Abbasi, Faiza
  • Riaz, Khalid


This paper explores the influence of economic and financial development on carbon emissions in a small emerging economy. The study employs ARDL approach to investigate the long run relationship between carbon emissions and a set of economic and financial variables, an Error Correction Model (ECM) to capture the short run dynamics, Granger causality in an augmented VAR framework to check the causality direction, and variance decomposition based on an estimated Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to determine the relative contributions of economic and financial variables to the evolution of per capita carbon emissions. The periods considered were the full sample (1971–2011), and a reduced sample sub-period (1988–2011) that corresponded to greater liberalization and financial sector development. The financial variables played a role in emission mitigation only in the latter period where greater degree of liberalization and financial sector development occurred. Even then the relative magnitude of emissions mitigation attributable to financial variables was much smaller compared to the emissions raising impact of rising per capita incomes. This underscores the need for adopting other mitigation policies for reducing carbon footprints in those emerging economies where a sufficient degree of financial deepening and financial sector development has not yet taken place.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbasi, Faiza & Riaz, Khalid, 2016. "CO2 emissions and financial development in an emerging economy: An augmented VAR approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 102-114.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:90:y:2016:i:c:p:102-114 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.12.017

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    1. repec:eee:eneeco:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:199-212 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Ahmad, Nawaz & Alam, Shaista, 2016. "Financial development and environmental quality: The way forward," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 353-364.
    3. repec:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:3:p:271:d:65786 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    5. Ndiaye, Ndeye Djiba & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is inflation targeting the proper monetary policy regime in a dual banking system? new evidence from ARDL bounds test," MPRA Paper 79420, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Xiongfeng Pan & Yaobo Yan & Xiaoxue Peng & Qing Liu, 2016. "Analysis of the Threshold Effect of Financial Development on China’s Carbon Intensity," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(3), pages 1-14, March.
    7. Diallo, Abdoulaye Kindy & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "CO2 emissions and financial development: evidence from the United Arab Emirates based on an ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 82054, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    CO2 emissions; Financial development; Pakistan; ARDL; Augmented VAR; VECM;

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