IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v82y2015icp298-309.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The progressive inefficiency of replacing renewable obligation certificates with contracts-for-differences in the UK electricity market

Author

Listed:
  • Bunn, Derek
  • Yusupov, Tim

Abstract

This paper looks at the emerging risk/return profile for new renewable assets as a conventional wholesale electricity market progressively decarbonises. Using a detailed fundamental model of price formation risks, under increasing replacement of fossil fuel facilities with onshore and offshore wind, we show that the risk return profile becomes less attractive over time, and may therefore need sustained and possibly increasing policy support. Furthermore, we show that green certificate trading may become progressively more attractive as a supplementary support to wholesale prices, compared to fixed feed-in-tariffs. This is because the increasingly negative correlation between renewable output and wholesale prices reduces its revenue risk compared to fixed feed-in tariffs, if other factors remain constant, and thereby improves conventional financial performance risk metrics. In particular, this suggests that the recent energy policy change in Britain to move away from green certificates and into contracts-for-differences may have been ill-founded.

Suggested Citation

  • Bunn, Derek & Yusupov, Tim, 2015. "The progressive inefficiency of replacing renewable obligation certificates with contracts-for-differences in the UK electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 298-309.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:82:y:2015:i:c:p:298-309
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421515000038
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Natalia Fabra & Nils‐Henrik Fehr & David Harbord, 2006. "Designing electricity auctions," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(1), pages 23-46, March.
    2. Natalia Fabra & Nils-Henrik M. von der Fehr & David Harbord, 2006. "Designing Electricity Auctions," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 37(1), pages 23-46, Spring.
    3. Oliver Browne & Stephen Poletti & David Young, 2012. "Simulating market power in the New Zealand electricity market," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 35-50, December.
    4. Blyth, William & Bunn, Derek & Kettunen, Janne & Wilson, Tom, 2009. "Policy interactions, risk and price formation in carbon markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5192-5207, December.
    5. Butler, Lucy & Neuhoff, Karsten, 2008. "Comparison of feed-in tariff, quota and auction mechanisms to support wind power development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1854-1867.
    6. Verbruggen, Aviel & Lauber, Volkmar, 2012. "Assessing the performance of renewable electricity support instruments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 635-644.
    7. James Nicolaisen & Valentin Petrov & Leigh Tesfatsion, 2000. "Market Power and Efficiency in a Computational Electricity Market with Discriminatory Double-Auction Pricing," Computational Economics 0004005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Micola, Augusto Rupérez & Banal-Estañol, Albert & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Incentives and coordination in vertically related energy markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 381-393, August.
    9. Mitchell, C. & Bauknecht, D. & Connor, P.M., 2006. "Effectiveness through risk reduction: a comparison of the renewable obligation in England and Wales and the feed-in system in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-305, February.
    10. Dhananjay Bapat, 2012. "Customer Relationship for Electronic Payment Products," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 13(1), pages 137-151, February.
    11. ., 2012. "Electric Power," Chapters, in: Regulatory Reform of Public Utilities, chapter 3, pages 49-64, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Hirth, Lion, 2013. "The market value of variable renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 218-236.
    13. Gautam Gowrisankaran & Stanley S. Reynolds & Mario Samano, 2016. "Intermittency and the Value of Renewable Energy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1187-1234.
    14. Woodman, B. & Mitchell, C., 2011. "Learning from experience? The development of the Renewables Obligation in England and Wales 2002-2010," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3914-3921, July.
    15. Roth, Alvin E. & Erev, Ido, 1995. "Learning in extensive-form games: Experimental data and simple dynamic models in the intermediate term," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 164-212.
    16. Bunn, Derek W. & Martoccia, Maria & Ochoa, Patricia & Kim, Haein & Ahn, Nam-Sung & Yoon, Yong-Beom, 2010. "Vertical integration and market power: A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3710-3716, July.
    17. Haas, Reinhard & Resch, Gustav & Panzer, Christian & Busch, Sebastian & Ragwitz, Mario & Held, Anne, 2011. "Efficiency and effectiveness of promotion systems for electricity generation from renewable energy sources – Lessons from EU countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 2186-2193.
    18. Guigang Zhang & Chao Li & Sixin Xue & Yuenan Liu & Yong Zhang & Chunxiao Xing, 2012. "A New Electronic Commerce Architecture in the Cloud," Journal of Electronic Commerce in Organizations (JECO), IGI Global, vol. 10(4), pages 42-56, October.
    19. Sensfuß, Frank & Ragwitz, Mario & Genoese, Massimo, 2008. "The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3076-3084, August.
    20. Sensfuß, Frank & Ragwitz, Mario & Genoese, Massimo & Möst, Dominik, 2007. "Agent-based simulation of electricity markets: a literature review," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S5/2007, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    21. Twomey, Paul & Neuhoff, Karsten, 2010. "Wind power and market power in competitive markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3198-3210, July.
    22. Jos� I. Mu�oz & Derek W. Bunn, 2013. "Investment risk and return under renewable decarbonization of a power market," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(sup01), pages 87-105, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Albert Banal-Estañol & Augusto Rupérez-Micola, 2010. "Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case," Economics Working Papers 1214, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Albert Banal-Estañol & Augusto Rupérez Micola, 2009. "Composition of Electricity Generation Portfolios, Pivotal Dynamics, and Market Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1813-1831, November.
    3. Connor, Peter M. & Xie, Lei & Lowes, Richard & Britton, Jessica & Richardson, Thomas, 2015. "The development of renewable heating policy in the United Kingdom," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 733-744.
    4. Browne, Oliver & Poletti, Stephen & Young, David, 2015. "How does market power affect the impact of large scale wind investment in 'energy only' wholesale electricity markets?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 17-27.
    5. Gaivoronskaia, E. & Tsyplakov, A., 2018. "Using a Modified Erev-Roth Algorithm in an Agent-Based Electricity Market Model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 55-83.
    6. Brown, T. & Reichenberg, L., 2021. "Decreasing market value of variable renewables can be avoided by policy action," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    7. del Río, Pablo & Bleda, Mercedes, 2012. "Comparing the innovation effects of support schemes for renewable electricity technologies: A function of innovation approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 272-282.
    8. Marc Baudry & Clément Bonnet, 2016. "Demand pull isntruments and the development of wind power in Europe: A counter-factual analysis," Working Papers 1607, Chaire Economie du climat.
    9. Darudi, Ali & Weigt, Hannes, 2019. "Renewable Support, Intermittency and Market Power: An Equilibrium Investment Approach," Working papers 2019/06, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    10. Polzin, Friedemann & Egli, Florian & Steffen, Bjarne & Schmidt, Tobias S., 2019. "How do policies mobilize private finance for renewable energy?—A systematic review with an investor perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 1249-1268.
    11. Marc Baudry & Clément Bonnet, 2019. "Demand-Pull Instruments and the Development of Wind Power in Europe: A Counterfactual Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 385-429, June.
    12. Bersalli, Germán & Menanteau, Philippe & El-Methni, Jonathan, 2020. "Renewable energy policy effectiveness: A panel data analysis across Europe and Latin America," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. Wang, Yunfei & Li, Jinke & O'Leary, Nigel & Shao, Jing, 2024. "Excess demand or excess supply? A comparison of renewable energy certificate markets in the United Kingdom and Australia," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    14. Fabra, Natalia, 2021. "The energy transition: An industrial economics perspective," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. Guillaume Bourgeois & Sandrine Mathy & Philippe Menanteau, 2017. "The effect of climate policies on renewable energies : a review of econometric studies [L’effet des politiques climatiques sur les énergies renouvelables : une revue des études économétriques]," Post-Print hal-01585906, HAL.
    16. Hirth, Lion, 2013. "The market value of variable renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 218-236.
    17. Narita, Daiju & Requate, Till, 2021. "Price vs. quantity regulation of volatile energy supply and market entry of RES-E operators," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    18. Pérez de Arce, Miguel & Sauma, Enzo & Contreras, Javier, 2016. "Renewable energy policy performance in reducing CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 272-280.
    19. Paul Lehmann & Felix Creutzig & Melf-Hinrich Ehlers & Nele Friedrichsen & Clemens Heuson & Lion Hirth & Robert Pietzcker, 2012. "Carbon Lock-Out: Advancing Renewable Energy Policy in Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-32, February.
    20. Dillig, Marius & Jung, Manuel & Karl, Jürgen, 2016. "The impact of renewables on electricity prices in Germany – An estimation based on historic spot prices in the years 2011–2013," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 7-15.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:82:y:2015:i:c:p:298-309. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.