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Power without manpower: Forecasting labour demand for Estonian energy sector

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  • Meriküll, Jaanika
  • Eamets, Raul
  • Humal, Katrin
  • Espenberg, Kerly

Abstract

As energy demand and prices continue to grow, oil shale might help mitigate the energy crisis—it can widely be found all over the world but so far has not been widely used. Estonia is unique in the world for producing a large majority of energy out of oil shale and has been set as an example in numerous papers covering oil shale deposits, technology etc. This paper is the first to analyse oil shale energy related workforce and provides scenario forecasts of the labour demand for the Estonian energy sector in 2010–2020. The contribution of the paper is twofold. First, the paper provides a valuable insight into oil shale energy related workforce, enabling to take into consideration the educational needs in countries where oil shale industry might be set up. Second, methodology-wise, the paper relates labour demand and supply to different scenarios of energy production capacities. The results illustrate problems related to aging of the workforce in energy production. If the existing trends continue in educational attainment in Estonia, there will be a serious shortage of high-skilled engineering and manufacturing specialists. Our method provides a simple yet reliable enough way to check for such problems early enough.

Suggested Citation

  • Meriküll, Jaanika & Eamets, Raul & Humal, Katrin & Espenberg, Kerly, 2012. "Power without manpower: Forecasting labour demand for Estonian energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 740-750.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:49:y:2012:i:c:p:740-750
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.07.018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Campos, Nauro F. & Dabusinskas, Aurelijus, 2009. "So many rocket scientists, so few marketing clerks: Estimating the effects of economic reform on occupational mobility in Estonia," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 261-275, June.
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    3. Haltiwanger, John C. & Vodopivec, Milan, 2002. "Gross worker and job flows in a transition economy: an analysis of Estonia," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 601-630, November.
    4. Willems, E. J. T. A. & de Grip, A., 1993. "Forecasting replacement demand by occupation and education," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 173-185, August.
    5. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F. (ed.), 2011. "The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195398649.
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    7. Roger Fox & Barry Comerford, 2008. "Estimating replacement demand: lessons from Ireland," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(4), pages 348-361, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Panagiotis, 2015. "Assessing greenhouse gas emissions in Estonia's energy system," MPRA Paper 66105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Alsaleh, Mohd & Abdul-Rahim, A.S. & Mohd-Shahwahid, H.O., 2017. "Determinants of technical efficiency in the bioenergy industry in the EU28 region," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1331-1349.

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