Estimating replacement demand: lessons from Ireland
Purpose - This paper seeks to examine the use of the cohort component method as a method of deriving replacement demand for manpower forecasting. Design/methodology/approach - The paper explains the principal concepts of replacement demand and how replacement demand has been estimated in two alternative ways: the cohort component method and using longitudinal data on individuals. The paper focuses on one of these ways, the cohort component method, and illustrates how this method can fail to capture all the relevant flows driving replacement demand. It also compares the method to the alternative approach based on individual data and discusses US and Irish results using both methods. Findings - The cohort component method is found to underestimate replacement demand significantly in many occupations. Research limitations/implications - Research estimates of replacement demand should be based on individual longitudinal data rather than the cohort component method. Originality/value - Many countries undertake some form of occupational employment forecasting including, in many cases, making estimates of replacement demand. This paper should help to clarify the appropriate choice of methodology for estimating replacement demand.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 29 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK|
Web: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/ijm.htm Email:
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:ijmpps:v:29:y:2008:i:4:p:348-361. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Virginia Chapman)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.