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Macroeconomic determinants of stock market betas

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  • González, Mariano
  • Nave, Juan
  • Rubio, Gonzalo

Abstract

This paper proposes the mixed frequency conditional beta. We employ the MIDAS framework to estimate market betas as a weighted average of a high and low frequency components. Then, we analyze the macroeconomic determinants of stock market betas and the counter- or pro-cyclicality of betas across well-known portfolio sorts. The surplus consumption ratio with time-varying risk aversion and the default premium are the aggregate variables with the higher statistical impact on stock market betas across alternative portfolios. We show the implications of the mixed frequency betas for the term structure of holding-period expected excess returns, and for alternative investment strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • González, Mariano & Nave, Juan & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of stock market betas," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 26-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:45:y:2018:i:c:p:26-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2017.10.003
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    Cited by:

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    2. González-Sánchez, Mariano & Nave, Juan & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2020. "Effects of uncertainty and risk aversion on the exposure of investment-style factor returns to real activity," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    3. Pedro Antonio Martín-Cervantes & María del Carmen Valls Martínez, 2023. "Unraveling the relationship between betas and ESG scores through the Random Forests methodology," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(3), pages 1-29, September.
    4. Tolga Cenesizoglu & Denada Ibrushi, 2020. "Predicting Systematic Risk With Macroeconomic And Financial Variables," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 649-673, August.
    5. Asgharian, Hossein & Christiansen, Charlotte & Hou, Ai Jun & Wang, Weining, 2021. "Long- and short-run components of factor betas: Implications for stock pricing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Manuel Monge & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2020. "The Lithium Industry and Analysis of the Beta Term Structure of Oil Companies," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Salem Alshihab & Nayef AlShammari, 2020. "Are Kuwaiti Stock Returns Affected by Fluctuations in Oil Prices?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(6), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Rojo Suárez, Javier & Alonso Conde, Ana Belén & Ferrero Pozo, Ricardo, 2020. "European equity markets: Who is the truly representative investor?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 325-346.
    9. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Chen Tong, 2022. "Option Pricing with Time-Varying Volatility Risk Aversion," Papers 2204.06943, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    10. Mehdi Zolfaghari & Bahram Sahabi, 2021. "The impact of oil price and exchange rate on momentum strategy profits in stock market: evidence from oil-rich developing countries," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 1981-2023, October.
    11. Rafique, Amir & Iqbal, Khurram & Zakaria, Muhammad & Mujtaba, Ghulam, 2019. "Investigating ICAPM with mean-reverting dynamic conditional correlation: Evidence from an emerging stock exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 514-523.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market betas; Mixed data sampling (MIDAS); Low-frequency component; High-frequency component; Macroeconomic indicators;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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