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How does Russia's economy affect the region? Transmission channels and policy options

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  • Arzoumanian, Shant

Abstract

This paper studies how output fluctuations in Russia are transmitted internationally. Using dynamic panel models, the paper finds that Russia's output fluctuations are an important driver of output fluctuations of countries in the region, especially for oil importers, and are transmitted increasingly via trade and market confidence channels. The magnitude of cross-border spillovers is larger for countries with relatively high bilateral trade concentration, low export diversification, and weak external buffers. The paper also finds evidence that stronger public institutional quality- especially in the fiscal area- may help insulate countries from volatility in the Russian sovereign debt market.

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  • Arzoumanian, Shant, 2024. "How does Russia's economy affect the region? Transmission channels and policy options," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:63:y:2024:i:c:s1566014124001006
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spillovers; International business cycles; Trade; Remittances; FDI; Market confidence; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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