IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v221y2012i1p222-230.html

Nonparametric predictive utility inference

Author

Listed:
  • Houlding, B.
  • Coolen, F.P.A.

Abstract

We consider the natural combination of two strands of recent statistical research, i.e., that of decision making with uncertain utility and that of Nonparametric Predictive Inference (NPI). In doing so we present the idea of Nonparametric Predictive Utility Inference (NPUI), which is suggested as a possible strategy for the problem of utility induction in cases of extremely vague prior information. An example of the use of NPUI within a motivating sequential decision problem is also considered for two extreme selection criteria, i.e., a rule that is based on an attitude of extreme pessimism and a rule that is based on an attitude of extreme optimism.

Suggested Citation

  • Houlding, B. & Coolen, F.P.A., 2012. "Nonparametric predictive utility inference," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 222-230.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:221:y:2012:i:1:p:222-230
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2012.03.024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221712002330
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2012.03.024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yoram Halevy, 2007. "Ellsberg Revisited: An Experimental Study," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 503-536, March.
    2. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-587, May.
    3. Coolen, F. P. A., 1996. "Comparing two populations based on low stochastic structure assumptions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 297-305, September.
    4. Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2005. "A Smooth Model of Decision Making under Ambiguity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1849-1892, November.
    5. Coolen, F. P. A. & Coolen-Schrijner, P., 2003. "A nonparametric predictive method for queues," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 425-442, March.
    6. P Coolen-Schrijner & F P A Coolen & S C Shaw, 2006. "Nonparametric adaptive opportunity-based age replacement strategies," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(1), pages 63-81, January.
    7. Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2004. "Differentiating ambiguity and ambiguity attitude," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 133-173, October.
    8. Abellán, Joaquín & Baker, Rebecca M. & Coolen, Frank P.A., 2011. "Maximising entropy on the nonparametric predictive inference model for multinomial data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 112-122, July.
    9. Larry G. Epstein, 1999. "A Definition of Uncertainty Aversion," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(3), pages 579-608.
    10. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frank PA Coolen & Tahani Coolen-Maturi & Abdullah H Al-nefaiee, 2014. "Nonparametric predictive inference for system reliability using the survival signature," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 228(5), pages 437-448, October.
    2. Frank PA Coolen, 2013. "Maximum group sizes for simultaneous testing in high potential risk scenarios," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 227(6), pages 569-575, December.
    3. Aboalkhair, Ahmad M. & Coolen, Frank P.A. & MacPhee, Iain M., 2013. "Nonparametric predictive reliability of series of voting systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 77-84.
    4. Liu, Hui-hui & Song, Yao-yao & Yang, Guo-liang, 2019. "Cross-efficiency evaluation in data envelopment analysis based on prospect theory," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(1), pages 364-375.
    5. Brett Houlding & Frank P. A. Coolen & Donnacha Bolger, 2015. "A Conjugate Class of Utility Functions for Sequential Decision Problems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(9), pages 1611-1622, September.
    6. Donnacha Bolger & Brett Houlding, 2016. "Reliability updating in linear opinion pooling for multiple decision makers," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 230(3), pages 309-322, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karni, Edi & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2015. "Ambiguity and Nonexpected Utility," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications,, Elsevier.
    2. Junyi Chai & Zhiquan Weng & Wenbin Liu, 2021. "Behavioral Decision Making in Normative and Descriptive Views: A Critical Review of Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-14, October.
    3. Carvalho, M., 2012. "Static vs Dynamic Auctions with Ambiguity Averse Bidders," Other publications TiSEM 1f078e67-88ec-46e3-ae18-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Loïc Berger & Louis Eeckhoudt, 2021. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Value of Diversification," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 1639-1647, March.
    5. Brian Hill, 2009. "Confidence and ambiguity," Working Papers hal-00489870, HAL.
    6. Adam Dominiak & Wendelin Schnedler, 2011. "Attitudes toward uncertainty and randomization: an experimental study," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 48(2), pages 289-312, October.
    7. Aydogan, Ilke & Berger, Loϊc & Bosetti, Valentina & Liu, Ning, "undated". "Three Layers of Uncertainty: an Experiment," ETA: Economic Theory and Applications 274852, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    8. Izhakian, Yehuda, 2020. "A theoretical foundation of ambiguity measurement," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    9. Aurélien Baillon & Harris Schlesinger & Gijs van de Kuilen, 2018. "Measuring higher order ambiguity preferences," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 21(2), pages 233-256, June.
    10. Evren, Özgür, 2019. "Recursive non-expected utility: Connecting ambiguity attitudes to risk preferences and the level of ambiguity," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 285-307.
    11. Carvalho, M., 2012. "Static vs Dynamic Auctions with Ambiguity Averse Bidders," Discussion Paper 2012-022, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. Li, Wenhui & Wilde, Christian, 2021. "Separating the effects of beliefs and attitudes on pricing under ambiguity," SAFE Working Paper Series 311, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    13. Treich, Nicolas, 2010. "The value of a statistical life under ambiguity aversion," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 15-26, January.
    14. Dillenberger, David & Segal, Uzi, 2017. "Skewed noise," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 344-364.
    15. Georgalos, Konstantinos, 2021. "Dynamic decision making under ambiguity: An experimental investigation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 28-46.
    16. Berger, Loic & Bosetti, Valentina, "undated". "Ellsberg Re-revisited: An Experiment Disentangling Model Uncertainty and Risk Aversion," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 236239, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    17. Robin Cubitt & Gijs Kuilen & Sujoy Mukerji, 2018. "The strength of sensitivity to ambiguity," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 85(3), pages 275-302, October.
    18. Ghirardato, Paolo & Siniscalchi, Marciano, 2018. "Risk sharing in the small and in the large," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 730-765.
    19. Izhakian, Yehuda, 2017. "Expected utility with uncertain probabilities theory," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 91-103.
    20. Stefan Felder & Dilek Sevim, 2024. "Value and demand for genetic information and ambiguity aversion revisited," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 161-181, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:221:y:2012:i:1:p:222-230. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.