IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v161y2024ics0014292123002465.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Were jobs saved at the cost of productivity in the COVID-19 crisis?

Author

Listed:
  • Meriküll, Jaanika
  • Paulus, Alari

Abstract

Economic recessions can boost the productivity-enhancing reallocation of jobs, yet the COVID-19 crisis has provided limited and mixed evidence of that. The paper studies the link between productivity and reallocation and investigates the role of job retention schemes in it, using a rich administrative dataset for Estonia that covers the whole population of firms from 2004 to 2020. We find persistent evidence for the reallocation of jobs towards more productive sectors and firms. However, the within-sector reallocation was surprisingly unresponsive to productivity in the COVID-19 crisis, in sharp contrast to the experience in the previous major crisis, the Great Recession. We show that a generous job retention scheme supressed the acceleration of within-industry reallocation towards more productive firms, which had negative consequences for aggregate productivity during COVID-19. The negative effects on productivity were offset by the positive employment effect, but the net gains from the job retention support appear limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Meriküll, Jaanika & Paulus, Alari, 2024. "Were jobs saved at the cost of productivity in the COVID-19 crisis?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:161:y:2024:i:c:s0014292123002465
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104618
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292123002465
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104618?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aghion, Philippe & Angeletos, George-Marios & Banerjee, Abhijit & Manova, Kalina, 2010. "Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and the composition of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 246-265, April.
    2. Jan De Loecker & Frederic Warzynski, 2012. "Markups and Firm-Level Export Status," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2437-2471, October.
    3. Bartelsman, Eric & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma & Presidente, Giorgio, 2019. "Labour Reallocation in Recession and Recovery: Evidence for Europe," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 247, pages 32-39, February.
    4. Ryan A. Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2020. "Changing Business Dynamism and Productivity: Shocks versus Responsiveness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(12), pages 3952-3990, December.
    5. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites, 2020. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity," NBER Working Papers 28233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bighelli, Tommaso & Lalinsky, Tibor & Vanhala, Juuso, 2023. "Cross-country evidence on the allocation of COVID-19 government subsidies and consequences for productivity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Jose Garcia-Louzao & Linas Tarasonis, 2023. "Productivity-enhancing reallocation during the Great Recession: evidence from Lithuania," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 729-749.
    8. Tito Boeri & Herbert Bruecker, 2011. "Short-time work benefits revisited: some lessons from the Great Recession [‘Reversed roles? Wage and employment effects of the current crisis’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(68), pages 697-765.
    9. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Giulia Giupponi & Camille Landais, 2023. "Subsidizing Labour Hoarding in Recessions: The Employment and Welfare Effects of Short-time Work," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(4), pages 1963-2005.
    11. Daniel A. Dias & Carlos Robalo Marques, 2021. "Every Cloud Has a Silver Lining: Cleansing Effects of the Portuguese Financial Crisis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 352-376, April.
    12. Mina, Andrea & Santoleri, Pietro, 2021. "The effect of the Great Recession on the employment growth of young vs. small firms in the Eurozone," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 184-194.
    13. Meriküll, Jaanika & Paulus, Alari, 2024. "Were jobs saved at the cost of productivity in the COVID-19 crisis?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    14. Kozeniauskas, Nicholas & Moreira, Pedro & Santos, Cezar, 2022. "On the cleansing effect of recessions and government policy: Evidence from Covid-19," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    15. Vanda Almeida & Salvador Barrios & Michael Christl & Silvia Poli & Alberto Tumino & Wouter Wielen, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on households´ income in the EU," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 413-431, September.
    16. Harasztosi, Péter & Maurin, Laurent & Pál, Rozália & Revoltella, Debora & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2022. "Firm-level policy support during the crisis: So far, so good?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 30-48.
    17. Barlevy, Gadi, 2003. "Credit market frictions and the allocation of resources over the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1795-1818, November.
    18. Ouyang, Min, 2009. "The scarring effect of recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 184-199, March.
    19. Mary Hallward-Driemeier & Bob Rijkers, 2013. "Do Crises Catalyze Creative Destruction? Firm-level Evidence from Indonesia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1788-1810, December.
    20. Lucia Foster & Cheryl Grim & John Haltiwanger, 2016. "Reallocation in the Great Recession: Cleansing or Not?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 293-331.
    21. Giacomo Domini & Daniele Moschella, 2022. "Reallocation and productivity during the Great Recession: evidence from French manufacturing firms [Turbulence, firm decentralization, and growth in bad times]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(3), pages 783-810.
    22. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-1368, December.
    23. Amil Petrin & Brian P. Poi & James Levinsohn, 2004. "Production function estimation in Stata using inputs to control for unobservables," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(2), pages 113-123, June.
    24. Gadi Barlevy, 2002. "The Sullying Effect of Recessions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(1), pages 65-96.
    25. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2021. "Productivity of firms using relief policies during the COVID-19 crisis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    26. Meriküll, Jaanika & Paulus, Alari, 2023. "The impact of the Covid-19 job retention support on employment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    27. Haltiwanger, John & Scarpetta, Stefano & Schweiger, Helena, 2014. "Cross country differences in job reallocation: The role of industry, firm size and regulations," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 11-25.
    28. Daniel Kopp & Michael Siegenthaler, 2021. "Short-Time Work and Unemployment in and after the Great Recession [Does Employment Protection Inhibit Labor Market Flexibility? Lessons from Germany, France, and Belgium]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 2283-2321.
    29. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:26:y:2011:i:68:p:697-765 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Dan Andrews & David Hansell, 2021. "Productivity‐Enhancing Labour Reallocation in Australia†," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(317), pages 157-169, June.
    31. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guerini, Mattia & Nesta, Lionel & Ragot, Xavier & Schiavo, Stefano, 2024. "Zombification of the economy? Assessing the effectiveness of French government support during COVID-19 lockdown," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 263-280.
    2. Meriküll, Jaanika & Paulus, Alari, 2024. "Were jobs saved at the cost of productivity in the COVID-19 crisis?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Lalinsky, Tibor & Meriküll, Jaanika & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2024. "Productivity-enhancing reallocation during the Covid-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2947, European Central Bank.
    4. Meriküll, Jaanika & Paulus, Alari, 2023. "The impact of the Covid-19 job retention support on employment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lalinsky, Tibor & Meriküll, Jaanika & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2024. "Productivity-enhancing reallocation during the Covid-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2947, European Central Bank.
    2. Saini, Seema & Ahmad, Wasim & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "Do recessions induce Schumpeterian creative destruction? Micro Evidence from India," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Daniel A. Dias & Carlos Robalo Marques, 2021. "Every Cloud Has a Silver Lining: Cleansing Effects of the Portuguese Financial Crisis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 352-376, April.
    4. Meriküll, Jaanika & Paulus, Alari, 2023. "The impact of the Covid-19 job retention support on employment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    5. Garnadt, Niklas & von Rueden, Christina & Thiel, Esther, 2021. "Labour reallocation dynamics in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic and past recessions," Working Papers 08/2021, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    6. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Fabio Pieri & Diego Rodriguez, 2024. "Coping with high decline: firms’ resilience to adversity," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 193-219, June.
    7. Jose Garcia-Louzao & Linas Tarasonis, 2023. "Productivity-enhancing reallocation during the Great Recession: evidence from Lithuania," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 729-749.
    8. Saini, Seema & Ahmad, Wasim, 2024. "Credit creation, credit destruction and credit reallocation: Firm-level evidence from India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    9. Kozeniauskas, Nicholas & Moreira, Pedro & Santos, Cezar, 2022. "On the cleansing effect of recessions and government policy: Evidence from Covid-19," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    10. Elias Albagli & Alberto Naudon & Benjamin Garcia & Matias Tapia & Sebastian Guarda, 2019. "Job Ladders and Labor Productivity Dynamics," 2019 Meeting Papers 880, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Giacomo Domini & Daniele Moschella, 2018. "Reallocation and productivity during the Great Recession:evidence from French manufacturing firms," LEM Papers Series 2018/11, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    12. Guerini, Mattia & Nesta, Lionel & Ragot, Xavier & Schiavo, Stefano, 2024. "Zombification of the economy? Assessing the effectiveness of French government support during COVID-19 lockdown," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 263-280.
    13. Chiara Criscuolo & Peter N. Gal & Carlo Menon, 2014. "The Dynamics of Employment Growth: New Evidence from 18 Countries," CEP Discussion Papers dp1274, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Cooper, Russell & Horn, Carl-Wolfram & Indraccolo, Leonardo, 2024. "Covid and productivity in Europe: A responsiveness perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    15. Christian Abele & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2020. "One Size Does Not Fit All: TFP in the Aftermath of Financial Crises in Three European Countries," PSE Working Papers halshs-02883685, HAL.
    16. UESUGI Iichiro & HOSONO Kaoru & MIYAKAWA Daisuke & ONO Arito & UCHIDA Hirofumi, 2018. "Reallocation of Tangible Assets and Productivity," Discussion papers 18048, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    17. Carlos Carreira & Paulino Teixeira, 2016. "Entry and exit in severe recessions: lessons from the 2008–2013 Portuguese economic crisis," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 591-617, April.
    18. Ana Margarida Fernandes & Joana Silva, 2023. "Adjusting to Transitory Shocks: Worker Impact, Firm Channels, and (Lack of) Income Support," CESifo Working Paper Series 10479, CESifo.
    19. Carlos Carreira & Paulino Teixeira, 2016. "Entry and exit in severe recessions: lessons from the 2008–2013 Portuguese economic crisis," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 591-617, April.
    20. Sophie Osotimehin & Francesco Pappadà, 2017. "Credit Frictions and The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(602), pages 1153-1187, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Job reallocation; Productivity; COVID-19; Cleansing effect; Job retention scheme;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:161:y:2024:i:c:s0014292123002465. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.