IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecotra/v43y2025ics2212012225000322.html

Intertemporal price dispersion: The role of competition

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, H.
  • Czerny, A.I.
  • van Ommeren, J.
  • Niemeier, H.-M.

Abstract

This paper considers European airline markets to establish a causal effect of competition on pricing dynamics. It shows that intertemporal price dispersion is strongly reduced by competition because flights booked close to departure time are priced substantially lower when competition increases. This way competition mainly benefits late bookers. Low-cost carrier competition appears to have a strong and lasting negative effect on intertemporal price dispersion. The effect of competition by full-service carriers is moderate and seems to disappear in the long run. This study confirms the crucial importance of low-cost carrier competition for European aviation markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, H. & Czerny, A.I. & van Ommeren, J. & Niemeier, H.-M., 2025. "Intertemporal price dispersion: The role of competition," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecotra:v:43:y:2025:i:c:s2212012225000322
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100424
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212012225000322
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecotra.2025.100424?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Kun & Xia, Wenyi & Zhang, Anming & Zhang, Qiong, 2018. "Effects of train speed on airline demand and price: Theory and empirical evidence from a natural experiment," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 99-130.
    2. Escobari, Diego & Jindapon, Paan, 2014. "Price discrimination through refund contracts in airlines," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-8.
    3. Mian Dai & Qihong Liu & Konstantinos Serfes, 2014. "Is the Effect of Competition on Price Dispersion Nonmonotonic? Evidence from the U.S. Airline Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(1), pages 161-170, March.
    4. Zou, Li & Yu, Chunyan, 2020. "The evolving market entry strategy: A comparative study of Southwest and JetBlue," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 682-695.
    5. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    6. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769, December.
    7. Greg Kaplan & Guido Menzio & Leena Rudanko & Nicholas Trachter, 2019. "Relative Price Dispersion: Evidence and Theory," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 68-124, August.
    8. Alberto A. Gaggero & Claudio A. Piga, 2011. "Airline Market Power and Intertemporal Price Dispersion," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 552-577, December.
    9. Paul Klemperer, 1987. "Markets with Consumer Switching Costs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(2), pages 375-394.
    10. Shrago, Brad, 2022. "The spatial effects of entry on airfares in the U.S. airline industry," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    11. Bedford, James & Bilotkach, Volodymyr, 2022. "Competition on the UK-Australasia market: Evidence from transaction data," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 54-63.
    12. Varian, Hal R, 1985. "Price Discrimination and Social Welfare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 870-875, September.
    13. Wang, Kun & Tsui, Wai Hong Kan & Li, Lan-Bing & Lei, Zheng & Fu, Xiaowen, 2020. "Entry pattern of low-cost carriers in New Zealand - The impact of domestic and trans-Tasman market factors," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 36-45.
    14. Marco Cornia & Kristopher S. Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2012. "Price Dispersion Over the Business Cycle: Evidence from the Airline Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 347-373, September.
    15. Achim I. Czerny & Anming Zhang, 2015. "Third‐degree price discrimination in the presence of congestion externality," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(4), pages 1430-1455, November.
    16. Eugene Orlov, 2011. "How Does The Internet Influence Price Dispersion? Evidence From The Airline Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 21-37, March.
    17. Daraban, Bogdan & Fournier, Gary M., 2008. "Incumbent responses to low-cost airline entry and exit: A spatial autoregressive panel data analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 15-24.
    18. Siegert, Caspar & Ulbricht, Robert, 2020. "Dynamic oligopoly pricing: Evidence from the airline industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    19. Zhang, Hanxiang & Czerny, Achim I. & Grimme, Wolfgang & Niemeier, Hans-Martin, 2023. "The big three EU Low Cost Carriers before and during the Covid-19 pandemic: Network overlaps and airfare effects," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    20. Paul Klemperer, 1995. "Competition when Consumers have Switching Costs: An Overview with Applications to Industrial Organization, Macroeconomics, and International Trade," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(4), pages 515-539.
    21. Severin Borenstein, 1985. "Price Discrimination in Free-Entry Markets," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(3), pages 380-397, Autumn.
    22. Kristopher S. Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2009. "Does Competition Reduce Price Dispersion? New Evidence from the Airline Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(1), pages 1-37, February.
    23. Steven A. Morrison, 2001. "Actual, Adjacent, and Potential Competition Estimating the Full Effect of Southwest Airlines," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 35(2), pages 239-256, May.
    24. Leonardo J. Basso & Matthew T. Clements & Thomas W. Ross, 2009. "Moral Hazard and Customer Loyalty Programs," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 101-123, February.
    25. Anirban Sengupta & Steven N. Wiggins, 2014. "Airline Pricing, Price Dispersion, and Ticket Characteristics on and off the Internet," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 272-307, February.
    26. Steven Berry & Panle Jia, 2010. "Tracing the Woes: An Empirical Analysis of the Airline Industry," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-43, August.
    27. Kevin R. Williams, 2022. "The Welfare Effects of Dynamic Pricing: Evidence From Airline Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(2), pages 831-858, March.
    28. Jose M. Betancourt & Ali Hortaçsu & Aniko Oery & Kevin R. Williams, 2022. "Dynamic Price Competition: Theory and Evidence from Airline Markets," NBER Working Papers 30347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Severin Borenstein, 1992. "The Evolution of U.S. Airline Competition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 45-73, Spring.
    30. A. Yeşim Orhun & Tong Guo & Andreas Hagemann, 2022. "Reaching for Gold: Frequent-Flyer Status Incentives and Moral Hazard," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(3), pages 548-574, May.
    31. Achim I. Czerny & Anming Zhang, 2015. "Third-degree price discrimination in the presence of congestion externality," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1430-1455, November.
    32. Klemperer, Paul D, 1987. "Entry Deterrence in Markets with Consumer Switching Costs," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388a), pages 99-117, Supplemen.
    33. James D. Dana & Kevin R. Williams, 2022. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination in Sequential Quantity-Price Games," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(5), pages 966-981, September.
    34. Mara Lederman, 2007. "Do enhancements to loyalty programs affect demand? The impact of international frequent flyer partnerships on domestic airline demand," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(4), pages 1134-1158, December.
    35. Bilotkach, Volodymyr & Kawata, Keisuke & Kim, Tae Seung & Park, Jaehong & Purwandono, Putut & Yoshida, Yuichiro, 2019. "Quantifying the impact of low-cost carriers on international air passenger movements to and from major airports in Asia," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 28-57.
    36. Diego Escobari & Nicholas G. Rupp & Joseph Meskey, 2019. "An Analysis of Dynamic Price Discrimination in Airlines," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(3), pages 639-662, January.
    37. C de Chaisemartin & X D’HaultfŒuille, 2018. "Fuzzy Differences-in-Differences," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 999-1028.
    38. Els Breugelmans & Tammo Bijmolt & Jie Zhang & Leonardo Basso & Matilda Dorotic & Praveen Kopalle & Alec Minnema & Willem Mijnlieff & Nancy Wünderlich, 2015. "Advancing research on loyalty programs: a future research agenda," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 127-139, June.
    39. Mantin, Benny & Koo, Bonwoo, 2009. "Dynamic price dispersion in airline markets," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1020-1029, November.
    40. Aniko …ry & Ali Horta su & Kevin Williams, 2022. "Dynamic Price Competition: Theory and Evidence from Airline Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2341, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    41. Schmalensee, Richard, 1981. "Output and Welfare Implications of Monopolistic Third-Degree Price Discrimination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 242-247, March.
    42. Guillaume Burghouwt & Pablo Mendes De Leon & Jaap De Wit, 2015. "EU Air Transport Liberalisation Process, Impacts and Future Considerations," International Transport Forum Discussion Papers 2015/4, OECD Publishing.
    43. Dana, James D, Jr, 2001. "Monopoly Price Dispersion under Demand Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(3), pages 649-670, August.
    44. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    45. Borenstein, Severin & Rose, Nancy L, 1994. "Competition and Price Dispersion in the U.S. Airline Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(4), pages 653-683, August.
    46. Austan Goolsbee & Chad Syverson, 2008. "How Do Incumbents Respond to the Threat of Entry? Evidence from the Major Airlines," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(4), pages 1611-1633.
    47. Mara Lederman, 2008. "Are Frequent‐Flyer Programs a Cause of the “Hub Premium”?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 35-66, March.
    48. Diego Escobari, 2012. "Dynamic Pricing, Advance Sales and Aggregate Demand Learning in Airlines," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 697-724, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gaggero, Alberto A. & Luttmann, Alexander, 2025. "How does COVID-19 affect intertemporal price discrimination and price dispersion? Evidence from the airline industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    2. Luttmann, Alexander & Gaggero, Alberto A, 2022. "How does COVID-19 affect intertemporal price dispersion? Evidence from the airline industry," MPRA Paper 111797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Luttmann, Alexander & Ladd, Daniel, 2023. "Loyalty rewards and redemption behavior: Stylized facts for the U.S. airline industry," MPRA Paper 119214, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Diego Escobari & Nicholas G. Rupp & Joseph Meskey, 2019. "An Analysis of Dynamic Price Discrimination in Airlines," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(3), pages 639-662, January.
    5. Borsati, Mattia & Fageda, Xavier, 2024. "Airline price responses in the face of demand shocks: European lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    6. Luttmann, Alexander & Gaggero, Alberto A, 2020. "Purchase discounts and travel premiums during holiday periods: Evidence from the airline industry," MPRA Paper 104863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Escobari, Diego & Rupp, Nicholas & Meskey, Joseph, 2018. "Dynamic Price Discrimination in Airlines," MPRA Paper 88078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ma, Wenliang & Wang, Qiang & Yang, Hangjun & Zhang, Guoquan & Zhang, Yahua, 2020. "Understanding airline price dispersion in the presence of high-speed rail," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 93-102.
    9. Siegert, Caspar & Ulbricht, Robert, 2020. "Dynamic oligopoly pricing: Evidence from the airline industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Behrens, Christiaan & de Jong, Gerben & van Ommeren, Jos, 2024. "From silver to platinum: The impact of frequent flier tier levels on air travellers’ behaviour," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    11. Gaggero, Alberto A. & Luttmann, Alexander, 2023. "The determinants of hidden-city ticketing: Competition, hub-and-spoke networks, and advance-purchase requirements," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    12. Brad Shrago, 2024. "The Spirit Effect: Ultra-Low Cost Carriers and Fare Dispersion in the U.S. Airline Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 64(4), pages 549-579, June.
    13. Ivaldi, Marc & Petrova, Milena & Urdanoz, Miguel, 2022. "Airline cooperation effects on airfare distribution: An auction-model-based approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 239-250.
    14. Myongjin Kim & Leilei Shen & Qi Ge, 2023. "Does Competition Increase or Decrease Price Dispersion? Insights from One‐Way vs. Round‐Trip Airfares," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 435-455, April.
    15. A. Yeşim Orhun & Tong Guo & Andreas Hagemann, 2022. "Reaching for Gold: Frequent-Flyer Status Incentives and Moral Hazard," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(3), pages 548-574, May.
    16. Genakos, C. & Grey, F. & Ritz, R., 2020. "Generalized linear competition: From pass-through to policy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2078, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Gil, Ricard & Kim, Myongjin, 2021. "Does competition increase quality? Evidence from the US airline industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    18. Fan, Haobin & Lewis, Matthew S., 2024. "Multimarket contact and price discrimination," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    19. Henri Bussink & Bas ter Weel, 2022. "Costs and benefits of an Individual Learning Account (ILA): A simulation analysis for the Netherlands," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-077/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Kerry M. Tan, 2016. "Incumbent Response to Entry by Low‐Cost Carriers in the U.S. Airline Industry," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(3), pages 874-892, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecotra:v:43:y:2025:i:c:s2212012225000322. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecotra .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.