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Extreme weather and migration in the United States

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  • Beheshti, David
  • Eilam, Nir

Abstract

Extreme weather has become more frequent and intense over the past few decades. Given that the United States population has been historically highly mobile, direct and indirect effects of extreme weather could catalyze people to migrate. We test this empirically by exploiting spatial and temporal variation in temperature and precipitation at the county level over 6 decades (1950–2010). A non-parametric estimation yields an inverted U-shape relationship between temperature and net-migration, where decades in which the average temperature was more extreme are associated with lower net-migration. The effects are strongest for the most extreme average temperatures. We also find that extreme precipitation is associated with lower net-migration. These responses are driven by younger adults, and are not unique to agriculturally-dependent counties. These results are important as migration could mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change in the developed world.

Suggested Citation

  • Beheshti, David & Eilam, Nir, 2025. "Extreme weather and migration in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:253:y:2025:i:c:s0165176525001909
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112353
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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