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An interdisciplinary model of soybean yield in the Amazon Basin: The climatic, edaphic, and economic determinants

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  • Vera-Diaz, Maria del Carmen
  • Kaufmann, Robert K.
  • Nepstad, Daniel C.
  • Schlesinger, Peter

Abstract

Soybean production is one of the main economic forces driving the expansion of the agricultural frontier in the Brazilian Amazon. To assess the potential for expansion we estimate a model of soybean yield that integrates the major climatic, edaphic, and economic determinants in the Amazon Basin. Yield is modeled as a function of yield as simulated by a crop physiology model that captures the effects of climate and physical attributes on the development of soybean plant; fertilizer applications; and economic/spatial parameters such as credit, transports costs and latitude. Current values of these determinants indicate that roughly 20% of Amazon Region or ~Â 1,000,000Â km2 (excluding protected areas) can generate yields greater than 2000Â kg/ha. Soybean production may be possible over a wider area of Amazon, but realizing this potential requires improvements in economic determinants such as the transportation infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Vera-Diaz, Maria del Carmen & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Nepstad, Daniel C. & Schlesinger, Peter, 2008. "An interdisciplinary model of soybean yield in the Amazon Basin: The climatic, edaphic, and economic determinants," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 420-431, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:65:y:2008:i:2:p:420-431
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    1. Milazzo, M.F. & Spina, F. & Cavallaro, S. & Bart, J.C.J., 2013. "Sustainable soy biodiesel," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 806-852.
    2. Mann, Michael L. & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Bauer, Dana & Gopal, Sucharita & Vera-Diaz, Maria Del Carmen & Nepstad, Daniel & Merry, Frank & Kallay, Jennifer & Amacher, Gregory S., 2010. "The economics of cropland conversion in Amazonia: The importance of agricultural rent," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(7), pages 1503-1509, May.
    3. Pacheco, Pablo, 2009. "Agrarian Reform in the Brazilian Amazon: Its Implications for Land Distribution and Deforestation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1337-1347, August.
    4. Vera-Diaz, Maria del Carmen & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Nepstad, Daniel C., 2009. "The Environmental Impacts of Soybean Expansion and Infrastructure Development in Brazil’s Amazon Basin," Working Papers 179072, Tufts University, Global Development and Environment Institute.
    5. Hampf, Anna C. & Carauta, Marcelo & Latynskiy, Evgeny & Libera, Affonso A.D. & Monteiro, Leonardo & Sentelhas, Paulo & Troost, Christian & Berger, Thomas & Nendel, Claas, 2018. "The biophysical and socio-economic dimension of yield gaps in the southern Amazon – A bio-economic modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-13.
    6. Kevin Gallagher & Roberto Porzecanski, 2009. "China and the Latin America Commodities Boom: A Critical Assessment," Working Papers wp192, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    7. Avery S. Cohn & Juliana Gil & Thomas Berger & Heitor Pellegrina & Chantal Toledo, "undated". "Patterns and Processes of Pasture to Crop Conversion in Brazil: Evidence from Mato Grosso State," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 8ce99775615f42b98ff43f530, Mathematica Policy Research.
    8. Paudel, Krishna P. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2010. "Would There Be Surplus Grains for Biofuels? An Assessment of Agro-economic Factors and Biofuel Production Potential at the Global Level," Staff Papers 113125, Louisiana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness.
    9. Weinhold, Diana & Killick, Evan & Reis, Eustáquio J., 2013. "Soybeans, Poverty and Inequality in the Brazilian Amazon," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 132-143.
    10. Morello, Thiago Fonseca & Piketty, Marie-Gabrielle & Gardner, Toby & Parry, Luke & Barlow, Jos & Ferreira, Joice & Tancredi, Nicola S., 2018. "Fertilizer Adoption by Smallholders in the Brazilian Amazon: Farm-level Evidence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 278-291.
    11. Michael Mann & Robert Kaufmann & Dana Bauer & Sucharita Gopal & James Baldwin & Maria Del Carmen Vera-Diaz, 2012. "Ecosystem Service Value and Agricultural Conversion in the Amazon: Implications for Policy Intervention," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 53(2), pages 279-295, October.
    12. Peter Richards, 2018. "It’s not just where you farm; it’s whether your neighbor does too. How agglomeration economies are shaping new agricultural landscapes," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 87-110.
    13. Maria del Carmen Vera-Diaz & Robert K. Kaufmann & Daniel C. Nepstad, "undated". "The Environmental Impacts of Soybean Expansion and Infrastructure Development in Brazil’s Amazon Basin," GDAE Working Papers 09-05, GDAE, Tufts University.
    14. Yong Jiang & Won Koo, 2014. "Estimating the local effect of weather on field crop production with unobserved producer behavior: a bioeconomic modeling framework," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 16(3), pages 279-302, July.
    15. Mann, Michael L. & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Bauer, Dana Marie & Gopal, Sucharita & Nomack, Mallory & Womack, Jesse Y. & Sullivan, Kerry & Soares-Filho, Britaldo S., 2014. "Pasture conversion and competitive cattle rents in the Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 182-190.
    16. May, Peter H. & Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira & Strand, Jon, 2013. "How much is the Amazon worth ? the state of knowledge concerning the value of preserving amazon rainforests," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6668, The World Bank.
    17. Lisa L. Rausch & Holly K. Gibbs, 2016. "Property Arrangements and Soy Governance in the Brazilian State of Mato Grosso: Implications for Deforestation-Free Production," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-16, March.

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