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Estimating the local effect of weather on field crop production with unobserved producer behavior: a bioeconomic modeling framework

Listed author(s):
  • Yong Jiang

    ()

  • Won Koo
Registered author(s):

    The role of weather in crop production at field is central to understanding the impact of climate change on agriculture and its implications for food security. In this study, we developed a bioeconomic modeling framework for estimating the field effect of weather on crop production at the regional scale with unobserved producer behavior. We took a systematic perspective for model development, explicitly considering crop production as a coupled human–nature system dominated by management adapted to local environmental and economic conditions. We drew on economics to characterize producer management behavior and crop yield consistent with the process of field production. We integrated scientific findings on plant growth and production economics to parameterize the yield function of crop that can be statistically estimated with observed data. An empirical application of our approach to spring wheat production found spatially heterogeneous effect of weather and climate change impact. Our modeling approach can be applied to different crops or regions to develop locally specific understandings of the management adjusted, production effect of weather and climate change impact, with implications on cropping system resilience and for adaptation. Copyright Springer Japan 2014

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10018-014-0079-9
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    Article provided by Springer & Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS in its journal Environmental Economics and Policy Studies.

    Volume (Year): 16 (2014)
    Issue (Month): 3 (July)
    Pages: 279-302

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:envpol:v:16:y:2014:i:3:p:279-302
    DOI: 10.1007/s10018-014-0079-9
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    1. Vera-Diaz, Maria del Carmen & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Nepstad, Daniel C. & Schlesinger, Peter, 2008. "An interdisciplinary model of soybean yield in the Amazon Basin: The climatic, edaphic, and economic determinants," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 420-431, April.
    2. Ding, Ya & Schoengold, Karina & Tadesse, Tsegaye, 2009. "The Impact of Weather Extremes on Agricultural Production Methods: Does Drought Increase Adoption of Conservation Tillage Practices?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(3), December.
    3. Reidsma, Pytrik & Ewert, Frank & Boogaard, Hendrik & Diepen, Kees van, 2009. "Regional crop modelling in Europe: The impact of climatic conditions and farm characteristics on maize yields," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 100(1-3), pages 51-60, April.
    4. Debertin, David L., 2012. "Agricultural Production Economics, Second Edition," Monographs, Applied Economics, number 158319, March.
    5. Trostle, Ronald, 2008. "Factors Contributing to Recent Increases in Food Commodity Prices (PowerPoint)," Seminars 43902, USDA Economists Group.
    6. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    7. Hansen, LeRoy T., 1991. "Farmer Response to Changes in Climate: The Case of Corn Production," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 4.
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