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Unveiling how financial markets could intensify climate change risks

Author

Listed:
  • Laborda, Juan
  • Suárez, Cristina
  • Fernández, Alejandro
  • Wang, Haoran
  • Cerdá, Emilio
  • Ricci, Liana
  • Quiroga, Sonia

Abstract

This paper proposes a sustainable finance-based methodology to assess climate change vulnerability in Spain's key economic sectors. It pioneers a panel database merging biophysical, economic, and financial data, analysing private sales responses to climate change. Employing the RCP4.5 scenario, aligned with the EU's 2030 climate policy, it forecasts 10-year financial and economic variables via autoregressive neural networks, emphasizing confidence intervals across scenarios. The obtained results highlight the complexity of climate impacts on business revenues, the importance of considering both climate and financial variables, and the need for business adaptation and resilience in the face of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Laborda, Juan & Suárez, Cristina & Fernández, Alejandro & Wang, Haoran & Cerdá, Emilio & Ricci, Liana & Quiroga, Sonia, 2026. "Unveiling how financial markets could intensify climate change risks," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:239:y:2026:i:c:s0921800925002563
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108773
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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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