IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v11y2018i3p620-d135705.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Neural Network Model for the Prediction of the Daily Direct Solar Radiation

Author

Listed:
  • Zina Boussaada

    (Ecole Nationale d’Ingénieurs de Tunis, Université de Tunis El Manar, Tunis 1002, Tunisia
    Faculty of Engineering, Gipuzkoa, University of the Basque Country, 20018 San Sebastián, Spain)

  • Octavian Curea

    (ESTIA Recherche, 64210 Bidart, France)

  • Ahmed Remaci

    (ESTIA Recherche, 64210 Bidart, France)

  • Haritza Camblong

    (Faculty of Engineering, Gipuzkoa, University of the Basque Country, 20018 San Sebastián, Spain
    ESTIA Recherche, 64210 Bidart, France)

  • Najiba Mrabet Bellaaj

    (Ecole Nationale d’Ingénieurs de Tunis, Université de Tunis El Manar, Tunis 1002, Tunisia
    Institut Supérieur d’Informatique, Université de Tunis El Manar, Ariana 2080, Tunisia)

Abstract

The solar photovoltaic (PV) energy has an important place among the renewable energy sources. Therefore, several researchers have been interested by its modelling and its prediction, in order to improve the management of the electrical systems which include PV arrays. Among the existing techniques, artificial neural networks have proved their performance in the prediction of the solar radiation. However, the existing neural network models don’t satisfy the requirements of certain specific situations such as the one analyzed in this paper. The aim of this research work is to supply, with electricity, a race sailboat using exclusively renewable sources. The developed solution predicts the direct solar radiation on a horizontal surface. For that, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) neural network is used. All the specific conditions of the sailboat operation are taken into account. The results show that the best prediction performance is obtained when the training phase of the neural network is performed periodically.

Suggested Citation

  • Zina Boussaada & Octavian Curea & Ahmed Remaci & Haritza Camblong & Najiba Mrabet Bellaaj, 2018. "A Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Neural Network Model for the Prediction of the Daily Direct Solar Radiation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-21, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:3:p:620-:d:135705
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/3/620/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/3/620/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaime Buitrago & Shihab Asfour, 2017. "Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Loads Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Artificial Neural Networks with Exogenous Vector Inputs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-24, January.
    2. Zhenyu Wang & Cuixia Tian & Qibing Zhu & Min Huang, 2018. "Hourly Solar Radiation Forecasting Using a Volterra-Least Squares Support Vector Machine Model Combined with Signal Decomposition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-21, January.
    3. Chih-Chiang Wei, 2017. "Predictions of Surface Solar Radiation on Tilted Solar Panels using Machine Learning Models: A Case Study of Tainan City, Taiwan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-26, October.
    4. Luis Gonzaga Baca Ruiz & Manuel Pegalajar Cuéllar & Miguel Delgado Calvo-Flores & María Del Carmen Pegalajar Jiménez, 2016. "An Application of Non-Linear Autoregressive Neural Networks to Predict Energy Consumption in Public Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-21, August.
    5. Munawar Iqbal & David T. Llewellyn, 2002. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Munawar Iqbal & David T. Llewellyn (ed.), Islamic Banking and Finance, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Voyant, Cyril & Muselli, Marc & Paoli, Christophe & Nivet, Marie-Laure, 2011. "Optimization of an artificial neural network dedicated to the multivariate forecasting of daily global radiation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 348-359.
    7. Erasmo Cadenas & Wilfrido Rivera & Rafael Campos-Amezcua & Christopher Heard, 2016. "Wind Speed Prediction Using a Univariate ARIMA Model and a Multivariate NARX Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, February.
    8. Mellit, A. & Kalogirou, S.A. & Shaari, S. & Salhi, H. & Hadj Arab, A., 2008. "Methodology for predicting sequences of mean monthly clearness index and daily solar radiation data in remote areas: Application for sizing a stand-alone PV system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1570-1590.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexandru Pîrjan & Simona-Vasilica Oprea & George Căruțașu & Dana-Mihaela Petroșanu & Adela Bâra & Cristina Coculescu, 2017. "Devising Hourly Forecasting Solutions Regarding Electricity Consumption in the Case of Commercial Center Type Consumers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-36, October.
    2. Jee-Heon Kim & Nam-Chul Seong & Wonchang Choi, 2019. "Cooling Load Forecasting via Predictive Optimization of a Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Neural Network Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-13, November.
    3. Federico Divina & Aude Gilson & Francisco Goméz-Vela & Miguel García Torres & José F. Torres, 2018. "Stacking Ensemble Learning for Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-31, April.
    4. SeyedAli Ghahari & Cesar Queiroz & Samuel Labi & Sue McNeil, 2021. "Cluster Forecasting of Corruption Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Models with Exogenous Variables (NARX)—An Artificial Neural Network Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-20, October.
    5. Karabacak, Kerim & Cetin, Numan, 2014. "Artificial neural networks for controlling wind–PV power systems: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 804-827.
    6. Baruque, Bruno & Porras, Santiago & Jove, Esteban & Calvo-Rolle, José Luis, 2019. "Geothermal heat exchanger energy prediction based on time series and monitoring sensors optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 49-60.
    7. Singh Doorga, Jay Rovisham & Dhurmea, Kumar Ram & Rughooputh, Soonil & Boojhawon, Ravindra, 2019. "Forecasting mesoscale distribution of surface solar irradiation using a proposed hybrid approach combining satellite remote sensing and time series models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 69-85.
    8. Dahmani, Kahina & Dizene, Rabah & Notton, Gilles & Paoli, Christophe & Voyant, Cyril & Nivet, Marie Laure, 2014. "Estimation of 5-min time-step data of tilted solar global irradiation using ANN (Artificial Neural Network) model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 374-381.
    9. Voyant, Cyril & Muselli, Marc & Paoli, Christophe & Nivet, Marie-Laure, 2013. "Hybrid methodology for hourly global radiation forecasting in Mediterranean area," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-11.
    10. Bikhtiyar Ameen & Heiko Balzter & Claire Jarvis & James Wheeler, 2019. "Modelling Hourly Global Horizontal Irradiance from Satellite-Derived Datasets and Climate Variables as New Inputs with Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-28, January.
    11. Voyant, Cyril & Motte, Fabrice & Notton, Gilles & Fouilloy, Alexis & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Duchaud, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Prediction intervals for global solar irradiation forecasting using regression trees methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 332-340.
    12. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    13. Timothy Praditia & Thilo Walser & Sergey Oladyshkin & Wolfgang Nowak, 2020. "Improving Thermochemical Energy Storage Dynamics Forecast with Physics-Inspired Neural Network Architecture," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-26, July.
    14. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "A Green Energy Application in Energy Management Systems by an Artificial Intelligence-Based Solar Radiation Forecasting Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, April.
    15. Yiqi Chu & Chengcai Li & Yefang Wang & Jing Li & Jian Li, 2016. "A Long-Term Wind Speed Ensemble Forecasting System with Weather Adapted Correction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-20, October.
    16. Zoltan Varga & Ervin Racz, 2022. "Machine Learning Analysis on the Performance of Dye-Sensitized Solar Cell—Thermoelectric Generator Hybrid System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-18, October.
    17. Elsinga, Boudewijn & van Sark, Wilfried G.J.H.M., 2017. "Short-term peer-to-peer solar forecasting in a network of photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1464-1483.
    18. Saumya Verma & Raja Chowdhury & Sarat K. Das & Matthew J. Franchetti & Gang Liu, 2021. "Sunlight Intensity, Photosynthetically Active Radiation Modelling and Its Application in Algae-Based Wastewater Treatment and Its Cost Estimation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-28, October.
    19. Anjorin O.F. & Utah E.U & Likita M.S, 2014. "Estimation of Hourly Photo synthetically- Active Radiation (PAR) From Hourly Global Solar Radiation (GSR) In Jos, Nigeria," Asian Review of Environmental and Earth Sciences, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 1(2), pages 43-50.
    20. Cheng-Yu Ho & Ke-Sheng Cheng & Chi-Hang Ang, 2023. "Utilizing the Random Forest Method for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting in the Coastal Area of Central Taiwan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-18, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:3:p:620-:d:135705. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.