IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v11y2018i4p819-d139251.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Green Energy Application in Energy Management Systems by an Artificial Intelligence-Based Solar Radiation Forecasting Model

Author

Listed:
  • Ping-Huan Kuo

    (Computer and Intelligent Robot Program for Bachelor Degree, National Pingtung University, No.4-18, Minsheng Rd., Pingtung City, Pingtung County 90003, Taiwan)

  • Chiou-Jye Huang

    (School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, No.86, Hongqi Rd., Zhanggong District, Ganzhou 341000, China)

Abstract

The photovoltaic (PV) systems generate green energy from the sunlight without any pollution or noise. The PV systems are simple, convenient to install, and seldom malfunction. Unfortunately, the energy generated by PV systems depends on climatic conditions, location, and system design. The solar radiation forecasting is important to the smooth operation of PV systems. However, solar radiation detected by a pyranometer sensor is strongly nonlinear and highly unstable. The PV energy generation makes a considerable contribution to the smart grids via a large number of relatively small PV systems. In this paper, a high-precision deep convolutional neural network model (SolarNet) is proposed to facilitate the solar radiation forecasting. The proposed model is verified by experiments. The experimental results demonstrate that SolarNet outperforms other benchmark models in forecasting accuracy as well as in predicting complex time series with a high degree of volatility and irregularity.

Suggested Citation

  • Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "A Green Energy Application in Energy Management Systems by an Artificial Intelligence-Based Solar Radiation Forecasting Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:4:p:819-:d:139251
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/4/819/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/4/819/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Kalogirou, Soteris & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Paoli, Christophe & Motte, Fabrice & Fouilloy, Alexis, 2017. "Machine learning methods for solar radiation forecasting: A review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 569-582.
    2. Li, Jiaming & Ward, John K. & Tong, Jingnan & Collins, Lyle & Platt, Glenn, 2016. "Machine learning for solar irradiance forecasting of photovoltaic system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 542-553.
    3. Voyant, Cyril & Paoli, Christophe & Muselli, Marc & Nivet, Marie-Laure, 2013. "Multi-horizon solar radiation forecasting for Mediterranean locations using time series models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 44-52.
    4. Hong, Tao & Pinson, Pierre & Fan, Shu & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Troccoli, Alberto & Hyndman, Rob J., 2016. "Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 896-913.
    5. Chen, S.X. & Gooi, H.B. & Wang, M.Q., 2013. "Solar radiation forecast based on fuzzy logic and neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 195-201.
    6. Gharavi, H. & Ardehali, M.M. & Ghanbari-Tichi, S., 2015. "Imperial competitive algorithm optimization of fuzzy multi-objective design of a hybrid green power system with considerations for economics, reliability, and environmental emissions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 427-437.
    7. Luis Hernández & Carlos Baladrón & Javier M. Aguiar & Lorena Calavia & Belén Carro & Antonio Sánchez-Esguevillas & Javier Sanjuán & Álvaro González & Jaime Lloret, 2013. "Improved Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Two-Stage Predictions with Artificial Neural Networks in a Microgrid Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(9), pages 1-19, August.
    8. Mellit, A. & Benghanem, M. & Kalogirou, S.A., 2006. "An adaptive wavelet-network model for forecasting daily total solar-radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(7), pages 705-722, July.
    9. Dongxiao Niu & Shuyu Dai, 2017. "A Short-Term Load Forecasting Model with a Modified Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Based on the Denoising Method of Empirical Mode Decomposition and Gre," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-20, March.
    10. Deo, Ravinesh C. & Wen, Xiaohu & Qi, Feng, 2016. "A wavelet-coupled support vector machine model for forecasting global incident solar radiation using limited meteorological dataset," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 568-593.
    11. Chih-Chiang Wei, 2017. "Predictions of Surface Solar Radiation on Tilted Solar Panels using Machine Learning Models: A Case Study of Tainan City, Taiwan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-26, October.
    12. Cheng, Hsu-Yung, 2016. "Hybrid solar irradiance now-casting by fusing Kalman filter and regressor," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 434-441.
    13. Trapero, Juan R. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Martin, A., 2015. "Short-term solar irradiation forecasting based on Dynamic Harmonic Regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 289-295.
    14. Cao, J.C. & Cao, S.H., 2006. "Study of forecasting solar irradiance using neural networks with preprocessing sample data by wavelet analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(15), pages 3435-3445.
    15. Diagne, Maimouna & David, Mathieu & Lauret, Philippe & Boland, John & Schmutz, Nicolas, 2013. "Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 65-76.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guoming Wang & Woo-Hyun Kim & Gyung-Suk Kil & Dae-Won Park & Sung-Wook Kim, 2019. "An Intelligent Lightning Warning System Based on Electromagnetic Field and Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-11, April.
    2. Cheng, Hsu-Yung & Yu, Chih-Chang & Lin, Chih-Lung, 2021. "Day-ahead to week-ahead solar irradiance prediction using convolutional long short-term memory networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 2300-2308.
    3. Faisal Khalil & Gordon Pipa, 2022. "Is Deep-Learning and Natural Language Processing Transcending the Financial Forecasting? Investigation Through Lens of News Analytic Process," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 147-171, June.
    4. Guangyi Wu & Xiangxin Shao & Hong Jiang & Shaoxin Chen & Yibing Zhou & Hongyang Xu, 2020. "Control Strategy of the Pumped Storage Unit to Deal with the Fluctuation of Wind and Photovoltaic Power in Microgrid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-23, January.
    5. Jayesh Thaker & Robert Höller, 2022. "A Comparative Study of Time Series Forecasting of Solar Energy Based on Irradiance Classification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-26, April.
    6. Aslam, Sheraz & Herodotou, Herodotos & Mohsin, Syed Muhammad & Javaid, Nadeem & Ashraf, Nouman & Aslam, Shahzad, 2021. "A survey on deep learning methods for power load and renewable energy forecasting in smart microgrids," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Si-Ya Wang & Jun Qiu & Fang-Fang Li, 2018. "Hybrid Decomposition-Reconfiguration Models for Long-Term Solar Radiation Prediction Only Using Historical Radiation Records," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, May.
    2. Xing Zhang & Zhuoqun Wei, 2019. "A Hybrid Model Based on Principal Component Analysis, Wavelet Transform, and Extreme Learning Machine Optimized by Bat Algorithm for Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-20, July.
    3. Ahmed, Adil & Khalid, Muhammad, 2019. "A review on the selected applications of forecasting models in renewable power systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 9-21.
    4. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Kalogirou, Soteris & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Paoli, Christophe & Motte, Fabrice & Fouilloy, Alexis, 2017. "Machine learning methods for solar radiation forecasting: A review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 569-582.
    5. Michel Fliess & Cédric Join & Cyril Voyant, 2018. "Prediction bands for solar energy: New short-term time series forecasting techniques," Post-Print hal-01736518, HAL.
    6. Voyant, Cyril & Motte, Fabrice & Notton, Gilles & Fouilloy, Alexis & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Duchaud, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Prediction intervals for global solar irradiation forecasting using regression trees methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 332-340.
    7. Boland, John, 2015. "Spatial-temporal forecasting of solar radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 607-616.
    8. Marzouq, Manal & El Fadili, Hakim & Zenkouar, Khalid & Lakhliai, Zakia & Amouzg, Mohammed, 2020. "Short term solar irradiance forecasting via a novel evolutionary multi-model framework and performance assessment for sites with no solar irradiance data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 214-231.
    9. Jessica Wojtkiewicz & Matin Hosseini & Raju Gottumukkala & Terrence Lynn Chambers, 2019. "Hour-Ahead Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Multivariate Gated Recurrent Units," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-13, October.
    10. John Boland, 2020. "Characterising Seasonality of Solar Radiation and Solar Farm Output," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-15, January.
    11. Pedregal, Diego J. & Trapero, Juan R., 2021. "Adjusted combination of moving averages: A forecasting system for medium-term solar irradiance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    12. Gabriel Mendonça de Paiva & Sergio Pires Pimentel & Bernardo Pinheiro Alvarenga & Enes Gonçalves Marra & Marco Mussetta & Sonia Leva, 2020. "Multiple Site Intraday Solar Irradiance Forecasting by Machine Learning Algorithms: MGGP and MLP Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-28, June.
    13. Alonso-Suárez, R. & David, M. & Branco, V. & Lauret, P., 2020. "Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 554-573.
    14. Elham Alzain & Shaha Al-Otaibi & Theyazn H. H. Aldhyani & Ali Saleh Alshebami & Mohammed Amin Almaiah & Mukti E. Jadhav, 2023. "Revolutionizing Solar Power Production with Artificial Intelligence: A Sustainable Predictive Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-21, May.
    15. Anh Ngoc-Lan Huynh & Ravinesh C. Deo & Duc-Anh An-Vo & Mumtaz Ali & Nawin Raj & Shahab Abdulla, 2020. "Near Real-Time Global Solar Radiation Forecasting at Multiple Time-Step Horizons Using the Long Short-Term Memory Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-30, July.
    16. Gairaa, Kacem & Khellaf, Abdallah & Messlem, Youcef & Chellali, Farouk, 2016. "Estimation of the daily global solar radiation based on Box–Jenkins and ANN models: A combined approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 238-249.
    17. Hanany Tolba & Nouha Dkhili & Julien Nou & Julien Eynard & Stéphane Thil & Stéphane Grieu, 2020. "Multi-Horizon Forecasting of Global Horizontal Irradiance Using Online Gaussian Process Regression: A Kernel Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-23, August.
    18. Samu, Remember & Calais, Martina & Shafiullah, G.M. & Moghbel, Moayed & Shoeb, Md Asaduzzaman & Nouri, Bijan & Blum, Niklas, 2021. "Applications for solar irradiance nowcasting in the control of microgrids: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    19. Theo, Wai Lip & Lim, Jeng Shiun & Ho, Wai Shin & Hashim, Haslenda & Lee, Chew Tin, 2017. "Review of distributed generation (DG) system planning and optimisation techniques: Comparison of numerical and mathematical modelling methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 531-573.
    20. Lan, Hai & Yin, He & Hong, Ying-Yi & Wen, Shuli & Yu, David C. & Cheng, Peng, 2018. "Day-ahead spatio-temporal forecasting of solar irradiation along a navigation route," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 15-27.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:4:p:819-:d:139251. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.