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Multiple Site Intraday Solar Irradiance Forecasting by Machine Learning Algorithms: MGGP and MLP Neural Networks

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  • Gabriel Mendonça de Paiva

    (School of Electrical, Mechanical, and Computer Engineering, Federal University of Goias (UFG), Goiania 74605-010, Brazil)

  • Sergio Pires Pimentel

    (School of Electrical, Mechanical, and Computer Engineering, Federal University of Goias (UFG), Goiania 74605-010, Brazil)

  • Bernardo Pinheiro Alvarenga

    (School of Electrical, Mechanical, and Computer Engineering, Federal University of Goias (UFG), Goiania 74605-010, Brazil)

  • Enes Gonçalves Marra

    (School of Electrical, Mechanical, and Computer Engineering, Federal University of Goias (UFG), Goiania 74605-010, Brazil)

  • Marco Mussetta

    (Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, 20156 Milano, Italy)

  • Sonia Leva

    (Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, 20156 Milano, Italy)

Abstract

The forecasting of solar irradiance in photovoltaic power generation is an important tool for the integration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RES) in electrical utility grids. This study evaluates two machine learning (ML) algorithms for intraday solar irradiance forecasting: multigene genetic programming (MGGP) and the multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network (ANN). MGGP is an evolutionary algorithm white-box method and is a novel approach in the field. Persistence, MGGP and MLP were compared to forecast irradiance at six locations, within horizons from 15 to 120 min, in order to compare these methods based on a wide range of reliable results. The assessment of exogenous inputs indicates that the use of additional weather variables improves irradiance forecastability, resulting in improvements of 5.68% for mean absolute error (MAE) and 3.41% for root mean square error (RMSE). It was also verified that iterative predictions improve MGGP accuracy. The obtained results show that location, forecast horizon and error metric definition affect model accuracy dominance. Both Haurwitz and Ineichen clear sky models have been implemented, and the results denoted a low influence of these models in the prediction accuracy of multivariate ML forecasting. In a broad perspective, MGGP presented more accurate and robust results in single prediction cases, providing faster solutions, while ANN presented more accurate results for ensemble forecasting, although it presented higher complexity and requires additional computational effort.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Mendonça de Paiva & Sergio Pires Pimentel & Bernardo Pinheiro Alvarenga & Enes Gonçalves Marra & Marco Mussetta & Sonia Leva, 2020. "Multiple Site Intraday Solar Irradiance Forecasting by Machine Learning Algorithms: MGGP and MLP Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-28, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:11:p:3005-:d:370022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Sunil Kumar Mohapatra & Sushruta Mishra & Hrudaya Kumar Tripathy & Akash Kumar Bhoi & Paolo Barsocchi, 2021. "A Pragmatic Investigation of Energy Consumption and Utilization Models in the Urban Sector Using Predictive Intelligence Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-28, June.
    5. Chan Roh, 2022. "Deep-Learning-Based Pitch Controller for Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Systems with Compensation for Delay of Hydraulic Actuators," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-18, April.
    6. Prince Waqas Khan & Yung-Cheol Byun & Sang-Joon Lee & Dong-Ho Kang & Jin-Young Kang & Hae-Su Park, 2020. "Machine Learning-Based Approach to Predict Energy Consumption of Renewable and Nonrenewable Power Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-16, September.
    7. Jebli, Imane & Belouadha, Fatima-Zahra & Kabbaj, Mohammed Issam & Tilioua, Amine, 2021. "Prediction of solar energy guided by pearson correlation using machine learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    8. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou, 2023. "Machine Learning in Renewable Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-3, February.
    9. Javier López Gómez & Ana Ogando Martínez & Francisco Troncoso Pastoriza & Lara Febrero Garrido & Enrique Granada Álvarez & José Antonio Orosa García, 2020. "Photovoltaic Power Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks and Numerical Weather Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Varaha Satra Bharath Kurukuru & Ahteshamul Haque & Mohammed Ali Khan & Subham Sahoo & Azra Malik & Frede Blaabjerg, 2021. "A Review on Artificial Intelligence Applications for Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-35, August.

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