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Fiscal consolidation by intergovernmental transfers cuts? The unpleasant effect on expenditure arrears

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  • Chiades, Paolo
  • Greco, Luciano
  • Mengotto, Vanni
  • Moretti, Luigi
  • Valbonesi, Paola

Abstract

For the period 2003–2014, we investigate unexplored effects of fiscal consolidation in decentralized public finance on a large dataset of Italian municipalities. Based on a simple, realistic theoretical model, we show that municipalities increase arrears on committed investment expenditure as a response to intergovernmental transfer cuts. Then, we test our predictions controlling for potential sources of endogeneity, and find that a reduction in intergovernmental transfers causes a significant increase in arrears, in addition to other common adjustments to local fiscal policies (e.g., tax revenues). Our results highlight a perverse effect of fiscal consolidation packages implemented by centrally imposed fiscal restraints.

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  • Chiades, Paolo & Greco, Luciano & Mengotto, Vanni & Moretti, Luigi & Valbonesi, Paola, 2019. "Fiscal consolidation by intergovernmental transfers cuts? The unpleasant effect on expenditure arrears," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 266-275.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:77:y:2019:i:c:p:266-275
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.09.008
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    2. Liu, Yan & Wu, Guowei & Xiong, Chen, 2024. "Countercyclical central government transfers incentivize local government overborrowing: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expenditure commitments; Fiscal federalism; Fiscal rules; Instrumental variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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