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The Dynamic Response of Municipal Budgets to Revenue Shocks

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  • Stuhler, Jan
  • Helm, Ines

Abstract

We study the fiscal and tax response to intergovernmental grants, exploiting quasi-experimental variation within Germany’s fiscal equalization scheme triggered by Census revisions of official population counts. Municipal budgets do not adjust instantly. Instead, spending and investments adapt within five years to revenue gains, while adjustment to revenue losses is more rapid. Yet, the long-run response is symmetric. The tax response is particularly slow, stretching over more than a decade. Well-known empirical “anomalies†in public finance such as the flypaper effect are thus primarily a short-run phenomenon, while long-run fiscal behavior appears more consistent with standard theories of fiscal federalism.

Suggested Citation

  • Stuhler, Jan & Helm, Ines, 2021. "The Dynamic Response of Municipal Budgets to Revenue Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 16137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16137
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    2. Lyytikäinen, Teemu & Ramboer, Sander & Toikka, Max, 2024. "Fiscal transfers to local governments and the distribution of economic activity," Working Papers 171, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Jeffrey Clemens & Stan Veuger, 2024. "Intergovernmental Grants and Policy Competition: Concepts, Institutions, and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Policy Responses to Tax Competition, pages 273-325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mauri, Nicola, 2024. "How fiscally autonomous are local governments? An empirical test," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    5. Nora Gordon & Sarah Reber, 2020. "Federal Aid to School Districts during the COVID-19 Recession," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(3), pages 781-804, September.
    6. Manuel E. Lago & Santiago Lago-Peñas & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez, 2024. "On the effects of intergovernmental grants: a survey," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(3), pages 856-908, June.
    7. Ali Enami & Kile Byington & James Alm, 2025. "Funding Stabilization and the Performance of Public Agencies: Evidence from Ohio Libraries," Working Papers 2509, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    8. Mauri, Nicola & Peter, Linus, 2025. "The influence of intergovernmental transfers on local taxes: Evidence from Switzerland," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    9. Cassidy, Traviss, 2017. "Revenue Persistence and Public Service Delivery," MPRA Paper 114464, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Sep 2022.
    10. Dal Borgo, Mariela, 2024. "Effect of a transfer shock on subnational debt: Micro evidence from Mexico," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    11. Shani, Ron & Reingewertz, Yaniv & Vigoda-Gadot, Eran, 2023. "Intergovernmental grants and local public finance: An empirical examination in Israel," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Simon Berset & Martin Huber & Mark Schelker, 2023. "The fiscal response to revenue shocks," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 814-848, June.
    13. Flynn, Patrick & Smith, Tucker, 2022. "Rivers, lakes and revenue streams: The heterogeneous effects of Clean Water Act grants on local spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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