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Impact of mega trade deals on China: A computational general equilibrium analysis

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  • Li, Chunding
  • Wang, Jing
  • Whalley, John

Abstract

This paper explores the potential impacts on both China and other major countries of possible mega trade deals. We use a 13-country computational general equilibrium model with trade costs to investigate both tariff and non-tariff reduction effects. Simulation results reveal that China-Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will yield the highest welfare outcomes for China. For the US, China-TPP FTA will generate the highest welfare outcome. For the European Union, all China involved mega deals have negative impacts except China–US FTA. For Japan, RCEP will generate the highest welfare outcome. For both Korea and India, RCEP will generate the highest welfare outcome.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Chunding & Wang, Jing & Whalley, John, 2016. "Impact of mega trade deals on China: A computational general equilibrium analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 13-25.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:57:y:2016:i:c:p:13-25
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.03.027
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    Cited by:

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    2. Engler, Philipp & Tervala, Juha, 2018. "Welfare effects of TTIP in a DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 230-238.
    3. Farajzadeh, Zakariya & Zhu, Xueqin & Bakhshoodeh, Mohammad, 2017. "Trade reform in Iran for accession to the World Trade Organization: Analysis of welfare and environmental impacts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 75-85.
    4. Zhou, Sheng & Xu, Zhiwei, 2022. "Energy efficiency assessment of RCEP member states: A three-stage slack based measurement DEA with undesirable outputs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    5. Jackson, Karen & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2018. "Post-Brexit trade survival: Looking beyond the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 317-328.
    6. Chunding Li & Xin Lin & John Whalley, 2020. "Comparing Alternative China and US Arrangements with CPTPP," NBER Working Papers 26877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Chuantian He & Chunding Li & John Whalley, 2018. "General equilibrium trade modelling with Canada–US transportation costs," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(7), pages 806-829, October.
    8. Huang, Qingbo & Zhang, Xiaohan & Li, Yan, 2023. "Study on the economic effects of China and ASEAN countries from the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 123-135.
    9. Russel Kingshott & Piyush Sharma & Peter Hosie & Nebojsa Davcik, 2019. "Interactive impact of ethnic distance and cultural familiarity on the perceived effects of free trade agreements," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 135-160, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mega trade deal; China; General equilibrium; Impacts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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