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Large-scale mortality shocks and the Great Irish Famine 1845-1852

  • Curran, Declan
  • Fröling, Maria
Registered author(s):

    This paper considers the consequences of a large scale mortality shock arising from a famine or epidemic for long run economic and demographic development. The Great Irish Famine of 1845-1852 is taken as a case-study and is incorporated as an exogenous mortality shock into the type of long-run unified growth theory pioneered by Galor and Weil (1999, 2000), and modelled by Lagerlöf (2003a,b) among others. Through calibration, the impact of such a mortality shock occurring on the cusp of a country's transition from a Malthusian to a Modern Growth regime is then depicted.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VB1-4YJ149W-1/2/b0dab0495da22597bb7a4e87563b18bd
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

    Volume (Year): 27 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 5 (September)
    Pages: 1302-1314

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:5:p:1302-1314
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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    2. Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2003. "What Fundamentals Drive World Migration?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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    4. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293 Elsevier.
    5. Almquist, Eric L., 1979. "Pre-Famine Ireland and the Theory of European Proto-industrialization: Evidence from the 1841 Census," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(03), pages 699-718, September.
    6. Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia & Kögel, Tomas, 2000. "Agricultural Productivity Growth and Escape from the Malthusian Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 2485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. O'Gráda, Cormac & O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 1996. "Migration as Disaster Relief: Lessons from the Great Irish Famine," CEPR Discussion Papers 1462, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Charles I. Jones, . "Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run," Working Papers 99008, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    9. Raouf, BOUCEKKINE & Bity, DIENE & Theophile, AZOMAHOU, 2006. "The Growth economics of epidemics," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006021, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
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    11. Carrington, William J & Detragiache, Enrica & Vishwanath, Tara, 1996. "Migration with Endogenous Moving Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 909-30, September.
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    13. Nils-Petter Lagerlöf, 2003. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 755-777, 05.
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    15. Joel Mokyr & Cormac Ó Gráda, 1988. "Poor and getting poorer? Living standards in Ireland before the Famine," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 41(2), pages 209-235, 05.
    16. Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1993. "After the Famine: Emigration from Ireland, 1850–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(03), pages 575-600, September.
    17. Guinnane, Timothy W, 1994. "The Great Irish Famine and Population: The Long View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 303-08, May.
    18. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    19. Phelim Boyle & Cormac Grádo, 1986. "Fertility trends, excess mortality, and the Great Irish Famine," Demography, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 543-562, November.
    20. Karl Whelan, 1999. "Economic Geography and the Long-run Effects of the Great Irish Famine," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 1-20.
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