IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v87y2025icp2279-2297.html

Global geopolitical risk and stock price informativeness

Author

Listed:
  • Lai, Fujun
  • Wang, Fuxiang
  • Li, Yunzhong
  • Shum, Wai Yan

Abstract

This study uses a sample of Chinese listed companies from 2007 to 2021 to investigate the impact of global geopolitical risk (GPR) on stock price informativeness. Our paper finds that GPR significantly reduces stock price informativeness. We propose herding behavior as a potential mechanism. When GPR is elevated, investors may become more sensitive to the actions of others, resulting in a reduction in stock price informativeness. We also find that the impact of GPR on stock price informativeness is more pronounced for companies with poorer information environments, overseas operations, unfavorable market conditions, and lower institutional investor ownership. Further analysis reveals that unexpected GPR can reduce stock price informativeness, whereas expected GPR may actually increase stock price informativeness. Our study is of significant value to policymakers and investors in addressing GPR, as it helps optimize investment decisions and enhance market efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Lai, Fujun & Wang, Fuxiang & Li, Yunzhong & Shum, Wai Yan, 2025. "Global geopolitical risk and stock price informativeness," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 2279-2297.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:87:y:2025:i:c:p:2279-2297
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592625003303
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2025.08.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheong, Chee Seng & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2016. "Analyst forecasts and stock price informativeness: Some international evidence on the role of audit quality," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 257-273.
    2. Gaowen Kong & Dongmin Kong, 2015. "Institutional Investors' Trading in Speculation: Evidence from China," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 617-631, December.
    3. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    4. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2024. "Geopolitical risks and energy uncertainty: Implications for global and domestic energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Abdel-Latif, Hany & El-Gamal, Mahmoud, 2020. "Financial liquidity, geopolitics, and oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 295-306.
    7. Guo, Peng & Shi, Jing, 2024. "Geopolitical risks, investor sentiment and industry stock market volatility in China: Evidence from a quantile regression approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Lai, Fujun & Xiong, Deping & Zhu, Sha & Li, Yunzhong & Tan, Yanzhi, 2023. "Will geopolitical risks only inhibit corporate investment? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2019. "Does geopolitical risk strengthen or depress oil prices and financial liquidity? Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    10. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Boachie, Micheal Kofi & Suleman, Muhammed Tahir & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Structure dependence between oil and agricultural commodities returns: The role of geopolitical risks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    11. Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Lasisi, Lukman & Olaniran, Abeeb, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility in emerging markets: A GARCH – MIDAS approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    12. Yuan, Tiezhen & Wu, Ji (George) & Qin, Ni & Xu, Jian, 2022. "Being nice to stakeholders: The effect of economic policy uncertainty on corporate social responsibility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    13. Chang, Eric C. & Cheng, Joseph W. & Khorana, Ajay, 2000. "An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1651-1679, October.
    14. Hon Chung Hui, 2021. "The long-run effects of geopolitical risk on foreign exchange markets: evidence from some ASEAN countries," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 17(6), pages 1543-1564, January.
    15. Omid Asadollah & Linda Schwartz Carmy & Md. Rezwanul Hoque & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Geopolitical risk, supply chains, and global inflation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(8), pages 3450-3486, August.
    16. Matthew W. Clance & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Geopolitical risks and recessions in a panel of advanced economies: evidence from over a century of data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(16), pages 1317-1321, September.
    17. Liu, Xi & Zhang, Xueyong, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and currency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    18. Tang, Liang & Wan, Xiangyu, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price informativeness," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    19. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and stock prices," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    20. Marco Pagano & Paolo F. Volpin, 2005. "The Political Economy of Corporate Governance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1005-1030, September.
    21. Li Jiang & Jeong-Bon Kim & Lei Pang & Anne Wyatt, 2014. "The influence of ownership structure, analyst following and institutional infrastructure on stock price informativeness: international evidence," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 54(3), pages 885-919, September.
    22. Orleans Silva Martins & Lucas Ayres Barreira de Campos Barros, 2021. "Firm Informativeness, Information Environment, and Accounting Quality in Emerging Countries," The International Journal of Accounting (TIJA), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 56(01), pages 1-50, March.
    23. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on major currencies: Russia-Ukraine tensions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    24. Fiorillo, Paolo & Meles, Antonio & Pellegrino, Luigi Raffaele & Verdoliva, Vincenzo, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and stock price crash risk: The mitigating role of ESG performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    25. Chak Hung Jack Cheng & Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu, 2018. "How important are global geopolitical risks to emerging countries?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 305-325.
    26. Xinjie Wang & Yangru Wu & Weike Xu, 2024. "Geopolitical Risk and Investment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(8), pages 2023-2059, December.
    27. Yonghong Jiang & Gengyu Tian & Yiqi Wu & Bin Mo, 2022. "Impacts of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on Chinese tourism‐listed company stock," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 320-333, January.
    28. Tang, Yumei & Chen, Xihui Haviour & Sarker, Provash Kumer & Baroudi, Sarra, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks and uncertainties on green bond markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    29. Asai, Manabu & Gupta, Rangan & McAleer, Michael, 2020. "Forecasting volatility and co-volatility of crude oil and gold futures: Effects of leverage, jumps, spillovers, and geopolitical risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 933-948.
    30. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    31. Jawadi, Fredj & Bourghelle, David & Rozin, Philippe & Cheffou, Abdoulkarim Idi & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "Sentiment and energy price volatility: A nonlinear high frequency analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    32. Artyom Durnev & Randall Morck & Bernard Yeung & Paul Zarowin, 2003. "Does Greater Firm‐Specific Return Variation Mean More or Less Informed Stock Pricing?," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 797-836, December.
    33. Yang, Cai & Niu, Zibo & Gao, Wang, 2022. "The time-varying effects of trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks shocks on the commodity market prices: Evidence from the TVP-VAR-SV approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    34. Fernandes, Nuno & Ferreira, Miguel A., 2008. "Does international cross-listing improve the information environment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 216-244, May.
    35. Jin, Li & Myers, Stewart C., 2006. "R2 around the world: New theory and new tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 257-292, February.
    36. Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Xin Sheng, 2020. "Time-Varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 692-706, August.
    37. Kannadhasan, M. & Das, Debojyoti, 2020. "Do Asian emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk alike? A quantile regression approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    38. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    39. Xu, Liang, 2021. "Stock price informativeness and managerial inefficiency," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 348-364.
    40. Peter Sorensen & Marco Ottaviani, 2000. "Herd Behavior and Investment: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 695-704, June.
    41. David Easley & Marcos M. López de Prado & Maureen O'Hara, 2012. "Flow Toxicity and Liquidity in a High-frequency World," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1457-1493.
    42. Zhu, Sha & Xia, Yuqin & Li, Qiuxuan & Chen, Yunjia, 2025. "Global geopolitical risk and financial stability: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    43. Huang, Zhuo & Ye, Chengfang & Lai, Fujun & Li, Yunzhong & Li, Xiaofan, 2024. "Dancing between threats and conflicts: How Chinese energy companies invest amidst global geopolitical risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    44. Miguel A. Ferreira & Paul A. Laux, 2007. "Corporate Governance, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Information Flow," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 951-989, April.
    45. Hasan, Iftekhar & Song, Liang & Wachtel, Paul, 2014. "Institutional development and stock price synchronicity: Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 92-108.
    46. Ping Zhang & Yezhou Sha & Yifan Xu, 2021. "Stock Market Volatility Spillovers in G7 and BRIC," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(7), pages 2107-2119, May.
    47. Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2014. "Estimating a Structural Model of Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 224-251, January.
    48. Boying Li & Chun-Ping Chang & Yin Chu & Bo Sui, 2020. "Oil prices and geopolitical risks: What implications are offered via multi-domain investigations?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(3), pages 492-516, May.
    49. Fulgence, Samuel & Kwabi, Frank & Boateng, Agyenim & Hu, Wansu & Paudyal, Krishna, 2023. "Cross-country analysis of the effects of political uncertainty on stock price informativeness," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    50. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter for global asset returns? Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    51. Kumar, Ashish & Badhani, K.N. & Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq, 2021. "Herding behavior in the commodity markets of the Asia-Pacific region," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    52. Balakrishnan, Karthik & Shivakumar, Lakshmanan & Taori, Peeyush, 2021. "Analysts’ estimates of the cost of equity capital," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tang, Liang & Wan, Xiangyu, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price informativeness," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Cao, Ngan Duong & Trinh, Vu Quang & Nguyen, Tam Duc, 2025. "Geopolitical uncertainty and firm tail risk: Evidence from energy-focused economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    3. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2024. "Sectoral responses to economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk in the US stock market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Doan, Anh-Tuan & Phan, Thu & Lin, Kun-Li, 2020. "Governance quality, bank price synchronicity and political uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 231-262.
    5. Tamilselvan, M. & Halder, Abhishek & Kannadhasan, M., 2024. "Exploring the ingredients, mixtures, and inclinations of geopolitical risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 187-206.
    6. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    7. Yang, Tianle & Dong, Qingyuan & Du, Min & Du, Qunyang, 2023. "Geopolitical risks, oil price shocks and inflation: Evidence from a TVP–SV–VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    8. Mo, Bin & Nie, He & Zhao, Rongjie, 2024. "Dynamic nonlinear effects of geopolitical risks on commodities: Fresh evidence from quantile methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    9. Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Ali Yavuz Polat & Hasan Tekin & Ahmet Semih Tunalı, 2023. "The Ascent of Geopolitics: Scientometric Analysis and Ramifications of Geopolitical Risk," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 791-809, August.
    10. Li, Sufang & Tu, Dalun & Zeng, Yan & Gong, Chenggang & Yuan, Di, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter in crude oil and stock markets? Evidence from disaggregated data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    11. Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Safe Havens, Machine Learning, and the Sources of Geopolitical Risk: A Forecasting Analysis Using Over a Century of Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(1), pages 487-513, July.
    12. Huang, Zhuo & Ye, Chengfang & Lai, Fujun & Li, Yunzhong & Li, Xiaofan, 2024. "Dancing between threats and conflicts: How Chinese energy companies invest amidst global geopolitical risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    13. Long, Shaobo & Guo, Jiaqi, 2022. "Infectious disease equity market volatility, geopolitical risk, speculation, and commodity returns: Comparative analysis of five epidemic outbreaks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua & He, Zhifang, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risks on investor attention and speculation in the oil market: Evidence from nonlinear and time-varying analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    15. Faroque Ahmed & Kazi Sohag, 2025. "Spillover effects of separated oil price shocks on regional financial stress amidst Russia–Ukraine and global geopolitical tensions: a novel GVAR approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 15(3), pages 593-639, September.
    16. Gong, Xu & Xu, Jun, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and dynamic connectedness between commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    17. Yi Fang & Qirui Tang & Yanru Wang, 2024. "Geopolitical Risk and Cryptocurrency Market Volatility," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(14), pages 3254-3270, November.
    18. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Li, Yong-Yi, 2021. "Oil price shocks, geopolitical risks, and green bond market dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    19. Ahmed, Faroque & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Sohag, Kazi & Islam, Md. Monirul & Zeqiraj, Veton, 2024. "Global, local, or glocal? Unravelling the interplay of geopolitical risks and financial stress," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    20. Zhang, Yulian & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2022. "A connectedness analysis among BRICS’s geopolitical risks and the US macroeconomy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 182-203.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:87:y:2025:i:c:p:2279-2297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.