IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v151y2023ics0165188923000581.html

House price expectations and household consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Qian, Wei

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between individuals’ house price expectations and their spending intentions using microdata from the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations and the Michigan Survey of Consumers. The results suggest that people who anticipate rising house prices express greater readiness to increase their household spending. A one percentage point increase in nationwide house price expectations over the next 12 months is associated with an approximate 0.09 percentage point increase in expected total household spending growth over the same period. Moreover, the relationship between house price expectations and intended household spending is more pronounced for those who are likely to experience borrowing constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Qian, Wei, 2023. "House price expectations and household consumption," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:151:y:2023:i:c:s0165188923000581
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104652
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188923000581
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104652?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luis Armona & Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1371-1410.
    2. Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2016. "Expectations and Investment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 379-431.
    3. Olympia Bover, 2016. "Erratum to: Measuring expectations from household surveys: new results on subjective probabilities of future house prices," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 279-279, June.
    4. Duca-Radu, Ioana & Kenny, Geoff & Reuter, Andreas, 2021. "Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound: Micro evidence from a large multi-country survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 120-134.
    5. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2013. "Expectation-driven cycles in the housing market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 518-529.
    6. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    7. Atif Mian & Kamalesh Rao & Amir Sufi, 2013. "Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1687-1726.
    8. Rüdiger Bachmann & Tim O. Berg & Eric R. Sims, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, February.
    9. Michael Bailey & Eduardo Dávila & Theresa Kuchler & Johannes Stroebel, 2019. "House Price Beliefs And Mortgage Leverage Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(6), pages 2403-2452.
    10. Greg Kaplan & Kurt Mitman & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3285-3345.
    11. Daniel Cooper, 2013. "House Price Fluctuations: The Role of Housing Wealth as Borrowing Collateral," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1183-1197, October.
    12. Aditya Aladangady, 2017. "Housing Wealth and Consumption: Evidence from Geographically-Linked Microdata," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3415-3446, November.
    13. Theresa Kuchler & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2491-2542, October.
    14. Brueckner, Jan K. & Calem, Paul S. & Nakamura, Leonard I., 2012. "Subprime mortgages and the housing bubble," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 230-243.
    15. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Francesco Trebbi, 2015. "Foreclosures, House Prices, and the Real Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2587-2634, December.
    16. Kaplan, Greg & Mitman, Kurt & Violante, Giovanni L., 2020. "Non-durable consumption and housing net worth in the Great Recession: Evidence from easily accessible data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    17. Buiter, Willem H., 2010. "Housing wealth isn't wealth," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-29.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qian, Wei, 2025. "House price expectations and household spending— A survey-based experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    2. Yunhao Yao & Zishan Li & Xiaoxing Zhou & Merle Parmak, 2023. "Yachting Tourism Consumption Potential and Its Influencing Factors: Considering 12 Coastal Cities in China as Examples," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-16, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qian, Wei, 2025. "House price expectations and household spending— A survey-based experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    2. Felix Chopra & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2025. "Home Price Expectations and Spending: Evidence from a Field Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(7), pages 2267-2305, July.
    3. Boyd, Laura & McIndoe-Calder, Tara & Zekaite, Zivile, 2025. "Great expectations: the role of experiences in Irish house price expectations formation," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/25, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Kessel, Dany & Tyrefors, Björn & Vestman, Roine, 2018. "The Housing Wealth Effect: Quasi-Experimental Evidence," Working Paper Series 361, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    5. William D. Larson & Christos Makridis & Chad Redmer, 2021. "Borrower Expectations and Mortgage Performance: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," FHFA Staff Working Papers 21-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    6. Christos A. Makridis & Michael Ohlrogge, 2022. "Foreclosure spillovers and individual well‐being: Evidence from the Great Recession," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 122-146, March.
    7. Alessia De Stefani, 2021. "House price history, biased expectations, and credit cycles: The role of housing investors," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1238-1266, December.
    8. Xiaoqin Sun & Yuhai Su & Honglei Liu & Chengyou Li, 2022. "The Impact of House Price on Urban Household Consumption: Micro Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-20, October.
    9. Khorunzhina, Natalia, 2021. "Intratemporal nonseparability between housing and nondurable consumption: Evidence from reinvestment in housing stock," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 658-670.
    10. Christopher Roth & Sonja Settele & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Risk Exposure and Acquisition of Macroeconomic Information," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 34-53, March.
    11. Cheol Eun & Lingling Wang & Tim Zhang, 2022. "House Price Growth Synchronization and Business Cycle Alignment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 675-710, November.
    12. Makridis, Christos A., 2022. "The social transmission of economic sentiment on consumption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    13. Mairead Roiste & Apostolos Fasianos & Robert Kirkby & Fang Yao, 2021. "Are Housing Wealth Effects Asymmetric in Booms and Busts?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 578-628, May.
    14. Matteo Benetton & Giovanni Compiani, 2024. "Investors’ Beliefs and Cryptocurrency Prices," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 197-236.
    15. Ludwig, Alexander & Mankart, Jochen & Quintana, Jorge & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2024. "Heterogeneity in expectations and house price dynamics," SAFE Working Paper Series 432, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    16. Chen, Xin & Qin, Yaohua & Xiao, He & Zhang, Yifei, 2019. "Microfinancing and Home-purchase Restrictions: Evidence from the Online “Peer-to-Peer” Lending in China," MPRA Paper 95375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Carlos Caceres, 2019. "Analyzing the Effects of Financial and Housing Wealth on Consumption using Micro Data," IMF Working Papers 2019/115, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Adam M Guren & Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2021. "Housing Wealth Effects: The Long View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(2), pages 669-707.
    19. Theresa Kuchler & Monika Piazzesi & Johannes Stroebel, 2022. "Housing Market Expectations," NBER Working Papers 29909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. José Mustre-del-Río & Juan M Sánchez & Ryan Mather & Kartik Athreya, 2025. "The Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks: Household Financial Distress Matters," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 38(2), pages 564-604.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:151:y:2023:i:c:s0165188923000581. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.