IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v116y2020ics0165188920300683.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What is the minimal systemic risk in financial exposure networks?

Author

Listed:
  • Diem, Christian
  • Pichler, Anton
  • Thurner, Stefan

Abstract

We quantify how much systemic risk can be eliminated in financial contract networks by rearranging their network topology. By using mixed integer linear programming, financial linkages are optimally organized, whereas the overall economic conditions of banks, such as capital buffers, total interbank assets and liabilities, and average risk-weighted exposure remain unchanged. We apply the new optimization procedure to 10 snapshots of the Austrian interbank market where we focus on the largest 70 banks covering 71% of the market volume. The optimization reduces systemic risk (measured in DebtRank) by about 70%, showing the huge potential that changing the network structure has on the mitigation of financial contagion. Existing capital levels would need to be scaled up by a factor of 3.3 to obtain similar levels of DebtRank. These findings underline the importance of macro-prudential rules that focus on the structure of financial networks. The new optimization procedure allows us to benchmark actual networks to networks with minimal systemic risk. We find that simple topological measures, like link density, degree assortativity, or clustering coefficient, fail to explain the large differences in systemic risk between actual and optimal networks. We find that if the most systemically relevant banks are tightly connected, overall systemic risk is higher than if they are unconnected.

Suggested Citation

  • Diem, Christian & Pichler, Anton & Thurner, Stefan, 2020. "What is the minimal systemic risk in financial exposure networks?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:116:y:2020:i:c:s0165188920300683
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2020.103900
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188920300683
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco Bardoscia & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Guido Caldarelli, 2015. "DebtRank: A Microscopic Foundation for Shock Propagation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-13, June.
    2. Poledna, Sebastian & Molina-Borboa, José Luis & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & van der Leij, Marco & Thurner, Stefan, 2015. "The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 70-81.
    3. Edson Bastos e Santos & Rama Cont, 2010. "The Brazilian Interbank Network Structure and Systemic Risk," Working Papers Series 219, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    5. Carlos León & Ron J. Berndsen & Luc Renneboog, 2014. "Financial Stability and Interacting Networks of Financial Institutions and Market Infrastructures," Borradores de Economia 848, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Matt V. Leduc & Stefan Thurner, 2016. "Incentivizing Resilience in Financial Networks," Papers 1606.03595, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    7. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    8. Sheri M. Markose, 2012. "Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives; A Network Analysis of Contagion and Its Mitigation with Super-Spreader Tax," IMF Working Papers 2012/282, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Adrian Alter & Ben R. Craig & Peter Raupach, 2015. "Centrality-Based Capital Allocations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 329-377, June.
    10. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    11. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-638, August.
    12. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
    13. Sebastian Poledna & Seraf'in Mart'inez-Jaramillo & Fabio Caccioli & Stefan Thurner, 2018. "Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system," Papers 1802.00311, arXiv.org.
    14. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
    15. Leon Rincon, C.E. & Berndsen, R.J. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2014. "Financial Stability and Interacting Networks of Financial Institutions and Market Infrastructures," Discussion Paper 2014-057, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    16. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2007. "Network models and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2033-2060, June.
    17. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
    18. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Faia, Ester, 2017. "Bank networks: Contagion, systemic risk and prudential policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 164-188.
    19. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2016. "Contagion in financial networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68681, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Claus Puhr & Reinhardt Seliger & Michael Sigmund, 2012. "Contagiousness and Vulnerability in the Austrian Interbank Market," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 24, pages 62-78.
    21. Sylvain Benoit & Jean-Edouard Colliard & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2017. "Where the Risks Lie: A Survey on Systemic Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 109-152.
    22. Michael Boss & Martin Summer & Stefan Thurner, 2004. "Contagion Flow Through Banking Networks," Papers cond-mat/0403167, arXiv.org.
    23. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    24. Leduc, Matt V. & Thurner, Stefan, 2017. "Incentivizing resilience in financial networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 44-66.
    25. Caccioli, Fabio & Farmer, J. Doyne & Foti, Nick & Rockmore, Daniel, 2015. "Overlapping portfolios, contagion, and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 50-63.
    26. Gauthier, Céline & Lehar, Alfred & Souissi, Moez, 2012. "Macroprudential capital requirements and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 594-618.
    27. Preis, Tobias & Bardoscia, Marco & Caccioli, Fabio & Perotti, Juan Ignacio & Vivaldo, Gianna & Caldarelli, Guido, 2016. "Distress propagation in complex networks: the case of non-linear DebtRank," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68598, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    28. Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2016. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(3), pages 779-831, September.
    29. Poledna, Sebastian & Bochmann, Olaf & Thurner, Stefan, 2017. "Basel III capital surcharges for G-SIBs are far less effective in managing systemic risk in comparison to network-based, systemic risk-dependent financial transaction taxes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 230-246.
    30. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2015. "How likely is contagion in financial networks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 383-399.
    31. Sebastian Poledna & Stefan Thurner, 2014. "Elimination of systemic risk in financial networks by means of a systemic risk transaction tax," Papers 1401.8026, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
    32. Sebastian Poledna & Stefan Thurner, 2016. "Elimination of systemic risk in financial networks by means of a systemic risk transaction tax," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 1599-1613, October.
    33. Battiston, Stefano & Gatti, Domenico Delli & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Default cascades: When does risk diversification increase stability?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 138-149.
    34. Matt V. Leduc & Sebastian Poledna & Stefan Thurner, 2016. "Systemic Risk Management in Financial Networks with Credit Default Swaps," Papers 1601.02156, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2017.
    35. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Using Market Information for Banking System Risk Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    36. Carlos León & Ron J. Berndsen & Luc Renneboog, 2014. "Financial Stability and Interacting Networks of Financial Institutions and Market Infrastructures," Borradores de Economia 848, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    37. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
    38. Michael Boss & Helmut Elsinger & Martin Summer & Stefan Thurner, 2004. "Network topology of the interbank market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 677-684.
    39. Marco Bardoscia & Fabio Caccioli & Juan Ignacio Perotti & Gianna Vivaldo & Guido Caldarelli, 2016. "Distress Propagation in Complex Networks: The Case of Non-Linear DebtRank," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, October.
    40. Marco Bardoscia & Fabio Caccioli & Juan Ignacio Perotti & Gianna Vivaldo & Guido Caldarelli, 2015. "Distress propagation in complex networks: the case of non-linear DebtRank," Papers 1512.04460, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2016.
    41. Stefan Thurner & Sebastian Poledna, 2013. "DebtRank-transparency: Controlling systemic risk in financial networks," Papers 1301.6115, arXiv.org.
    42. Lehar, Alfred, 2005. "Measuring systemic risk: A risk management approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2577-2603, October.
    43. Hans Föllmer & Alexander Schied, 2002. "Convex measures of risk and trading constraints," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 429-447.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hamed Amini & Zachary Feinstein, 2020. "Optimal Network Compression," Papers 2008.08733, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    2. Schmitt, Noemi & Schwartz, Ivonne & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2020. "Heterogeneous speculators and stock market dynamics: A simple agent-based computational model," BERG Working Paper Series 160, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    3. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.
    4. Tinic, Murat & Sensoy, Ahmet & Demir, Muge & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2020. "Broker Network Connectivity and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 104719, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.
    2. Bardoscia, Marco & Barucca, Paolo & Codd, Adam Brinley & Hill, John, 2019. "Forward-looking solvency contagion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. Fabio Caccioli & Paolo Barucca & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2018. "Network models of financial systemic risk: a review," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 81-114, January.
    4. Bardoscia, Marco & Barucca, Paolo & Brinley Codd, Adam & Hill, John, 2017. "The decline of solvency contagion risk," Bank of England working papers 662, Bank of England.
    5. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    6. Yun, Tae-Sub & Jeong, Deokjong & Park, Sunyoung, 2019. "“Too central to fail” systemic risk measure using PageRank algorithm," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 251-272.
    7. Paolo Barucca & Marco Bardoscia & Fabio Caccioli & Marco D'Errico & Gabriele Visentin & Guido Caldarelli & Stefano Battiston, 2020. "Network valuation in financial systems," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1181-1204, October.
    8. Sebastian Poledna & Abraham Hinteregger & Stefan Thurner, 2018. "Identifying systemically important companies in the entire liability network of a small open economy," Papers 1801.10487, arXiv.org.
    9. Christoph Siebenbrunner, 2017. "Clearing algorithms and network centrality," Papers 1706.00284, arXiv.org.
    10. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    11. Ramadiah, Amanah & Fricke, Daniel & Caccioli, Fabio, 2020. "Backtesting macroprudential stress tests," Discussion Papers 45/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Sebastian Poledna & Seraf'in Mart'inez-Jaramillo & Fabio Caccioli & Stefan Thurner, 2018. "Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system," Papers 1802.00311, arXiv.org.
    14. Brandi, Giuseppe & Di Clemente, Riccardo & Cimini, Giulio, 2018. "Epidemics of liquidity shortages in interbank markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 507(C), pages 255-267.
    15. Paolo Bartesaghi & Michele Benzi & Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi & Ernesto Estrada, 2019. "Risk-dependent centrality in economic and financial networks," Papers 1907.07908, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2020.
    16. Deng, Yang & Zhang, Ziqing & Zhu, Li, 2021. "A model-based index for systemic risk contribution measurement in financial networks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 35-48.
    17. Hitoshi Hayakawa, 2020. "Liquidity in Financial Networks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(1), pages 253-301, January.
    18. Poledna, Sebastian & Molina-Borboa, José Luis & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & van der Leij, Marco & Thurner, Stefan, 2015. "The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 70-81.
    19. Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Kang, Sang Hoon & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2020. "Spillovers and diversification potential of bank equity returns from developed and emerging America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    20. Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Fiche, Marcelo Estrela & Braz, Tércio, 2021. "Citation likelihood analysis of the interbank financial networks literature: A machine learning and bibliometric approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 562(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:116:y:2020:i:c:s0165188920300683. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nithya Sathishkumar). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.