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Elimination of systemic risk in financial networks by means of a systemic risk transaction tax

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  • Sebastian Poledna
  • Stefan Thurner

Abstract

Financial markets are exposed to systemic risk (SR), the risk that a major fraction of the system ceases to function, and collapses. It has recently become possible to quantify SR in terms of underlying financial networks where nodes represent financial institutions, and links capture the size and maturity of assets (loans), liabilities, and other obligations, such as derivatives. We demonstrate that it is possible to quantify the share of SR that individual liabilities within a financial network contribute to the overall SR. We use empirical data of nationwide interbank liabilities to show that the marginal contribution to overall SR of liabilities for a given size varies by a factor of a thousand. We propose a tax on individual transactions that is proportional to their marginal contribution to overall SR. If a transaction does not increase SR it is tax-free. With an agent-based model (CRISIS macro-financial model) we demonstrate that the proposed "Systemic Risk Tax" (SRT) leads to a self-organised restructuring of financial networks that are practically free of SR. The SRT can be seen as an insurance for the public against costs arising from cascading failure. ABM predictions are shown to be in remarkable agreement with the empirical data and can be used to understand the relation of credit risk and SR.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Poledna & Stefan Thurner, 2014. "Elimination of systemic risk in financial networks by means of a systemic risk transaction tax," Papers 1401.8026, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1401.8026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Bjerksund, Petter & Stensland, Gunnar, 2006. "Closed form spread option valuation," Discussion Papers 2006/20, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    7. Stein, Elias M & Stein, Jeremy C, 1991. "Stock Price Distributions with Stochastic Volatility: An Analytic Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 727-752.
    8. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    9. Bakshi, Gurdip & Madan, Dilip, 2000. "Spanning and derivative-security valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 205-238, February.
    10. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Poledna, Sebastian & Molina-Borboa, José Luis & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & van der Leij, Marco & Thurner, Stefan, 2015. "The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 70-81.
    2. Fabio Caccioli & Paolo Barucca & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2017. "Network models of financial systemic risk: A review," Papers 1710.11512, arXiv.org.
    3. Klimek, Peter & Poledna, Sebastian & Doyne Farmer, J. & Thurner, Stefan, 2015. "To bail-out or to bail-in? Answers from an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 144-154.
    4. Basak, Deepal & Murray, Alexander & Zhao, Yunhui, 2017. "Does Financial Tranquility Call for More Stringent Regulation?," MPRA Paper 81373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sebastian Poledna & Seraf'in Mart'inez-Jaramillo & Fabio Caccioli & Stefan Thurner, 2018. "Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system," Papers 1802.00311, arXiv.org.
    6. Opeoluwa Banwo & Fabio Caccioli & Paul Harrald & Francesca Medda, 2016. "The Effect Of Heterogeneity On Financial Contagion Due To Overlapping Portfolios," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(08), pages 1-20, December.
    7. Iori, Giulia & Mantegna, Rosario N. & Marotta, Luca & Miccichè, Salvatore & Porter, James & Tumminello, Michele, 2015. "Networked relationships in the e-MID interbank market: A trading model with memory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 98-116.
    8. repec:eee:dyncon:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:44-66 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Stefano Battiston & Marco D'Errico & Stefano Gurciullo & Guido Caldarelli, 2015. "Leveraging the network: a stress-test framework based on DebtRank," Papers 1503.00621, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
    10. Poledna, Sebastian & Bochmann, Olaf & Thurner, Stefan, 2017. "Basel III capital surcharges for G-SIBs are far less effective in managing systemic risk in comparison to network-based, systemic risk-dependent financial transaction taxes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 230-246.
    11. Sebastian Poledna & Abraham Hinteregger & Stefan Thurner, 2018. "Identifying systemically important companies in the entire liability network of a small open economy," Papers 1801.10487, arXiv.org.
    12. repec:eee:jeborg:v:144:y:2017:i:c:p:97-120 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Matt V. Leduc & Sebastian Poledna & Stefan Thurner, 2016. "Systemic Risk Management in Financial Networks with Credit Default Swaps," Papers 1601.02156, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2017.
    14. Silva, Thiago Christiano & da Silva, Michel Alexandre & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2017. "Systemic risk in financial systems: A feedback approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 97-120.

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