Child education in the time of pandemic: Learning loss and dropout

The disruptive effects of the COVID-19 pandemic had affected the education sector at an unprecedented scale. In order to contain the spread of the virus, a large number of countries across the globe have shut their schools to handle the pandemic. However, it has adversely affected students' learning and school attendance. In this regard, we assess the impact of COVID-19 on the learning loss, school dropout, and the economic costs in term of foregone earnings for children in Pakistan. The study finds a substantial decrease in Learning Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS) with worsening consequences for girls than boys. Likewise, the aggregate economic cost amounts to 107 billion dollars when adjusted for human capital utilisation. Besides, our simulation results suggest that about 7.2 million children dropout due to a reduction in household expenditure by 50 percent. In comparison, the dropout is more pronounced at the primary level of schooling. The results recommend that the government design robust social protection and remote education strategies to mitigate school closure’s adverse effect on children's learning. The emphasis should be rather on the long run strategies to cope with a resilient education system of futuristic orientation.