IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v251y2019ic10.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of electric vehicles in near-term mitigation pathways and achieving the UK’s carbon budget

Author

Listed:
  • Hill, Graeme
  • Heidrich, Oliver
  • Creutzig, Felix
  • Blythe, Phil

Abstract

The decarbonisation of the road transport sector is increasingly seen as a necessary component to meet global and national targets as specified in the Paris Agreement. It may be achieved best by shifting from Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) cars to Electric Vehicles (EVs). However, the transition to a low carbon mode of transport will not be instantaneous and any policy or technological change implemented now will take years to have the desired effect. Within this paper we show how on-road emission factors of EVs and models of embedded CO2 in the vehicle production may be combined with statistics for vehicle uptake/replacement to forecast future transport emissions. We demonstrate that EVs, when compared to an efficient ICE, provide few benefits in terms of CO2 mitigation until 2030. However, between 2030 and 2050, predicted CO2 savings under the different EV uptake and decarbonisation scenarios begin to diverge with larger CO2 savings seen for the accelerated EV uptake. This work shows that simply focusing on on-road emissions is insufficient to model the future CO2 impact of transport. Instead a more complete production calculation must be combined with an EV uptake model. Using this extended model, our scenarios show how the lack of difference between a Business as Usual and accelerated EV uptake scenario can be explained by the time-lag in cause and effect between policy changes and the desired change in the vehicle fleet. Our work reveals that current UK policy is unlikely to achieve the desired reduction in transport-based CO2 by 2030. If embedded CO2 is included as part of the transport emissions sector, then all possible UK EV scenarios will miss the reduction target for 2050 unless this is combined with intense decarbonisation (80% of 1990 levels) of the UK electricity grid. This result highlights that whilst EVs offer an important contribution to decarbonisation in the transport sector it will be necessary to look at other transport mitigation strategies, such as modal shift to public transit, car sharing and demand management, to achieve both near-term and long-term mitigation targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Hill, Graeme & Heidrich, Oliver & Creutzig, Felix & Blythe, Phil, 2019. "The role of electric vehicles in near-term mitigation pathways and achieving the UK’s carbon budget," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:251:y:2019:i:c:10
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.04.107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261919307834
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.04.107?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robinson, A.P. & Blythe, P.T. & Bell, M.C. & Hübner, Y. & Hill, G.A., 2013. "Analysis of electric vehicle driver recharging demand profiles and subsequent impacts on the carbon content of electric vehicle trips," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 337-348.
    2. Penna, Caetano C.R. & Geels, Frank W., 2015. "Climate change and the slow reorientation of the American car industry (1979–2012): An application and extension of the Dialectic Issue LifeCycle (DILC) model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 1029-1048.
    3. Vikström, Hanna & Davidsson, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2013. "Lithium availability and future production outlooks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 252-266.
    4. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521182935.
    5. Schipper, Lee, 2011. "Automobile use, fuel economy and CO2 emissions in industrialized countries: Encouraging trends through 2008?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 358-372, March.
    6. Sharma, Ashish & Strezov, Vladimir, 2017. "Life cycle environmental and economic impact assessment of alternative transport fuels and power-train technologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 1132-1141.
    7. Hofmann, Jana & Guan, Dabo & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos & Huo, Hong, 2016. "Assessment of electrical vehicles as a successful driver for reducing CO2 emissions in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 995-1003.
    8. Hardman, Scott, 2019. "Understanding the impact of reoccurring and non-financial incentives on plug-in electric vehicle adoption – A review," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1-14.
    9. Orsi, Francesco & Muratori, Matteo & Rocco, Matteo & Colombo, Emanuela & Rizzoni, Giorgio, 2016. "A multi-dimensional well-to-wheels analysis of passenger vehicles in different regions: Primary energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic cost," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 197-209.
    10. Troy R. Hawkins & Bhawna Singh & Guillaume Majeau‐Bettez & Anders Hammer Strømman, 2013. "Comparative Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Conventional and Electric Vehicles," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 17(1), pages 53-64, February.
    11. Heidrich, Oliver & Hill, Graeme A. & Neaimeh, Myriam & Huebner, Yvonne & Blythe, Philip T. & Dawson, Richard J., 2017. "How do cities support electric vehicles and what difference does it make?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 17-23.
    12. Giardullo, Paolo & Sergi, Vittorio & Carton, Wim & Kenis, Anneleen & Kesteloot, Chris & Kazepov, Yuri & Kobus, Dominik & Maione, Michela & Skotak, Krzysztof & Fuzzi, Sandro & Pollini, Francesca, 2016. "Air quality from a social perspective in four European metropolitan areas: Research hypothesis and evidence from the SEFIRA project," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 58-64.
    13. Serradilla, Javier & Wardle, Josey & Blythe, Phil & Gibbon, Jane, 2017. "An evidence-based approach for investment in rapid-charging infrastructure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 514-524.
    14. Felix Creutzig, 2016. "Evolving Narratives of Low-Carbon Futures in Transportation," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 341-360, May.
    15. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107005198.
    16. Hardman, Scott, 2019. "Understanding the Impact of Reoccurring and Non-Financial Incentives on Plug-in Electric Vehicle Adoption – A Review," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt7v13w987, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    17. Nanaki, Evanthia A. & Koroneos, Christopher J., 2016. "Climate change mitigation and deployment of electric vehicles in urban areas," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1153-1160.
    18. Alam, Md. Saniul & Hyde, Bernard & Duffy, Paul & McNabola, Aonghus, 2017. "Assessment of pathways to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger car fleets: Case study in Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 283-300.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kondev, Bozhil & Dixon, James & Zhou, Zhaoqi & Sabyrbekov, Rahat & Sultanaliev, Kanat & Hirmer, Stephanie A., 2023. "Putting the foot down: Accelerating EV uptake in Kyrgyzstan," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 87-96.
    2. Peng, Yuan & Bai, Xuemei, 2023. "What EV users say about policy efficacy: Evidence from Shanghai," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 16-26.
    3. Zhou, Xi-Yin & Xu, Zhicheng & Zheng, Jialin & Zhou, Ya & Lei, Kun & Fu, Jiafeng & Khu, Soon-Thiam & Yang, Junfeng, 2023. "Internal spillover effect of carbon emission between transportation sectors and electricity generation sectors," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 356-366.
    4. Tokimatsu, Koji & Höök, Mikael & McLellan, Benjamin & Wachtmeister, Henrik & Murakami, Shinsuke & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2018. "Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: Exploring metal requirements and the well-below 2 °C target with 100 percent renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 1158-1175.
    5. Zhang, Junjie & Jia, Rongwen & Yang, Hangjun & Dong, Kangyin, 2022. "Does electric vehicle promotion in the public sector contribute to urban transport carbon emissions reduction?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 151-163.
    6. Ecer, Fatih, 2021. "A consolidated MCDM framework for performance assessment of battery electric vehicles based on ranking strategies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    7. Khan, Muhammad Imran & Shahrestani, Mehdi & Hayat, Tasawar & Shakoor, Abdul & Vahdati, Maria, 2019. "Life cycle (well-to-wheel) energy and environmental assessment of natural gas as transportation fuel in Pakistan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1738-1752.
    8. Alali, Layla & Niesten, Eva & Gagliardi, Dimitri, 2022. "The impact of UK financial incentives on the adoption of electric fleets: The moderation effect of GDP change," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 200-220.
    9. Münzel, Christiane & Plötz, Patrick & Sprei, Frances & Gnann, Till, 2019. "How large is the effect of financial incentives on electric vehicle sales? – A global review and European analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Mark Sommer & Ina Meyer & Silvia Scherhaufer & Florian Part & Peter Beigl, 2021. "ROSE-Trans – The Role of Secondary Resources in the Austrian Energy Transition," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 69194.
    11. Edelenbosch, O.Y. & van Vuuren, D.P. & Blok, K. & Calvin, K. & Fujimori, S., 2020. "Mitigating energy demand sector emissions: The integrated modelling perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    12. Ke, Wenwei & Zhang, Shaojun & He, Xiaoyi & Wu, Ye & Hao, Jiming, 2017. "Well-to-wheels energy consumption and emissions of electric vehicles: Mid-term implications from real-world features and air pollution control progress," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 367-377.
    13. Zhou, Min & Long, Piao & Kong, Nan & Zhao, Lindu & Jia, Fu & Campy, Kathryn S., 2021. "Characterizing the motivational mechanism behind taxi driver’s adoption of electric vehicles for living: Insights from China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 134-152.
    14. Austmann, Leonhard M., 2021. "Drivers of the electric vehicle market: A systematic literature review of empirical studies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    15. Graham Palmer, 2018. "A Biophysical Perspective of IPCC Integrated Energy Modelling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, April.
    16. Anne-Maree Dowd & Michelle Rodriguez & Talia Jeanneret, 2015. "Social Science Insights for the BioCCS Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-19, May.
    17. Fankhauser, Samuel & Jotzo, Frank, 2017. "Economic growth and development with low-carbon energy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86850, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Tilmann Rave, 2013. "Innovationsindikatoren zum globalen Klimaschutz – FuE-Ausgaben und Patente," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(15), pages 34-41, August.
    19. Daniel Moran & Richard Wood, 2014. "Convergence Between The Eora, Wiod, Exiobase, And Openeu'S Consumption-Based Carbon Accounts," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 245-261, September.
    20. Lykke E. Andersen & Luis Carlos Jemio, 2016. "Decentralization and poverty reduction in Bolivia: Challenges and opportunities," Development Research Working Paper Series 01/2016, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:251:y:2019:i:c:10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.