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Evolving Narratives of Low-Carbon Futures in Transportation

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  • Felix Creutzig

Abstract

Scenarios of low-carbon transport demonstrate that a vast range of different outcomes is possible and contingent on policy, technology and cultural developments. But a closer look indicates that different schools of thought suggest possible pathways diverging in their fine structure. This perspective reveals how three different scientific communities — integrated assessment modelers, transport-sector modelers, and place-based modelers — emphasize distinct solution domains. While integrated assessment models focus on fuel composition, transport-sector models put slightly higher emphasis on efficiency measures; in turn place-based research specifies idiosyncratic behavioral and infrastructural mitigation options that are likely to be beneficial in realizing local co-benefits. These specific local approaches could mitigate urban transport emissions by 20--50%, higher than that revealed in aggregate global models. We discuss differences in approach, possibilities for reconciliation, and the implications of normative assumptions. Targeted three-directional interactions would foster comprehensive understanding of possible low-carbon transportation futures.

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  • Felix Creutzig, 2016. "Evolving Narratives of Low-Carbon Futures in Transportation," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 341-360, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transr:v:36:y:2016:i:3:p:341-360
    DOI: 10.1080/01441647.2015.1079277
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hill, Graeme & Heidrich, Oliver & Creutzig, Felix & Blythe, Phil, 2019. "The role of electric vehicles in near-term mitigation pathways and achieving the UK’s carbon budget," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Alshehry, Atef Saad & Belloumi, Mounir, 2017. "Study of the environmental Kuznets curve for transport carbon dioxide emissions in Saudi Arabia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1339-1347.
    3. Greg Marsden & Jillian Anable, 2021. "Behind the Targets? The Case for Coherence in a Multi-Scalar Approach to Carbon Action Plans in the Transport Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Gunnar Luderer & Zoi Vrontisi & Christoph Bertram & Oreane Y. Edelenbosch & Robert C. Pietzcker & Joeri Rogelj & Harmen Sytze Boer & Laurent Drouet & Johannes Emmerling & Oliver Fricko & Shinichiro Fu, 2018. "Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(7), pages 626-633, July.
    5. Navarro-Ligero, Miguel L. & Valenzuela-Montes, Luis Miguel, 2022. "Scenario archetypes in urban transport planning: Insights from the implementation of LRT systems," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 152-164.
    6. Edelenbosch, O.Y. & van Vuuren, D.P. & Blok, K. & Calvin, K. & Fujimori, S., 2020. "Mitigating energy demand sector emissions: The integrated modelling perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    7. Zakia Soomauroo & Philipp Blechinger & Felix Creutzig, 2020. "Unique Opportunities of Island States to Transition to a Low-Carbon Mobility System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, February.

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