IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v117y2013icp70-82.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Irrigation demand and supply, given projections of climate and land-use change, in Yolo County, California

Author

Listed:
  • Mehta, Vishal K.
  • Haden, Van R.
  • Joyce, Brian A.
  • Purkey, David R.
  • Jackson, Louise E.

Abstract

We assess the potential effects of climate change and adaptive management on irrigation water supply in the Cache Creek watershed in California. Our model, built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system, is calibrated using historical data (1971–2000) on streamflow, irrigation deliveries, and reservoir operations. We examine three adaptation scenarios to 2099: (1) changes in cropping patterns based on econometric forecasts, (2) a shift toward a more diversified and water-efficient cropping patterns, and (3) a combination of irrigation technology improvements and changes in cropping patterns. Results show irrigation demand increasing by 26% and 32% under B1 and A2 baseline climate scenarios respectively in the latter part of the century under baseline climate scenarios. Irrigation water supply from upstream reservoir releases is less vulnerable, because of increased spring precipitation upstream. However, legal limits on reservoir releases mean that increased demand can only be met by increasing groundwater extraction. Increases in demand from climate change alone exceed applied water reductions from changing cropping patterns by an order of magnitude. Maximum applied water savings occur by combining a diversified water-efficient cropping pattern with irrigation technology improvements, which decreases demand to levels 12% below the historical mean, thereby also reducing groundwater pumping.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehta, Vishal K. & Haden, Van R. & Joyce, Brian A. & Purkey, David R. & Jackson, Louise E., 2013. "Irrigation demand and supply, given projections of climate and land-use change, in Yolo County, California," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 70-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:117:y:2013:i:c:p:70-82
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2012.10.021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377412002788
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2012.10.021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Juhwan Lee & Steven Gryze & Johan Six, 2011. "Effect of climate change on field crop production in California’s Central Valley," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 335-353, December.
    2. repec:cdl:agrebk:qt8q8309qn is not listed on IDEAS
    3. L. Jackson & S. Wheeler & A. Hollander & A. O’Geen & B. Orlove & J. Six & D. Sumner & F. Santos-Martin & J. Kramer & W. Horwath & R. Howitt & T. Tomich, 2011. "Case study on potential agricultural responses to climate change in a California landscape," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 407-427, December.
    4. Negri, Donald H. & Brooks, Douglas H., 1990. "Determinants Of Irrigation Technology Choice," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 15(2), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Brian Joyce & Vishal Mehta & David Purkey & Larry Dale & Michael Hanemann, 2011. "Modifying agricultural water management to adapt to climate change in California’s central valley," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 299-316, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. M. K. Shaabani & J. Abedi-Koupai & S. S. Eslamian & S. A. R. Gohari, 2024. "Simulation of the effects of climate change, crop pattern change, and developing irrigation systems on the groundwater resources by SWAT, WEAP and MODFLOW models: a case study of Fars province, Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 10485-10511, April.
    2. T. R. Sreeshna & P. Athira & B. Soundharajan, 2024. "Impact of Climate Change on Regional Water Availability and Demand for Agricultural Production: Application of Water Footprint Concept," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(10), pages 3785-3817, August.
    3. Chul-Hee Lim & Yuyoung Choi & Moonil Kim & Soo Jeong Lee & Christian Folberth & Woo-Kyun Lee, 2018. "Spatially Explicit Assessment of Agricultural Water Equilibrium in the Korean Peninsula," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, January.
    4. Ajay Gajanan Bhave & Neha Mittal & Ashok Mishra & Narendra Singh Raghuwanshi, 2016. "Integrated Assessment of no-Regret Climate Change Adaptation Options for Reservoir Catchment and Command Areas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1001-1018, February.
    5. Nam, Won-Ho & Choi, Jin-Yong & Hong, Eun-Mi, 2015. "Irrigation vulnerability assessment on agricultural water supply risk for adaptive management of climate change in South Korea," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 173-187.
    6. U. Surendran & C. M. Sushanth & E. J. Joseph & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2019. "FAO CROPWAT Model-Based Irrigation Requirements for Coconut to Improve Crop and Water Productivity in Kerala, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-15, September.
    7. Ajay Bhave & Ashok Mishra & Narendra Raghuwanshi, 2014. "Evaluation of hydrological effect of stakeholder prioritized climate change adaptation options based on multi-model regional climate projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(2), pages 225-239, March.
    8. George, Nicholas & Thompson, Sally E. & Hollingsworth, Joy & Orloff, Steven & Kaffka, Stephen, 2018. "Measurement and simulation of water-use by canola and camelina under cool-season conditions in California," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 15-23.
    9. Amber Kerr & Jake Dialesandro & Kerri Steenwerth & Nathan Lopez-Brody & Emile Elias, 2018. "Vulnerability of California specialty crops to projected mid-century temperature changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 419-436, June.
    10. Naveed Ahmed & Haishen Lü & Shakeel Ahmed & Ghulam Nabi & Muhammad Abdul Wajid & Aamir Shakoor & Hafiz Umar Farid, 2021. "Irrigation Supply and Demand, Land Use/Cover Change and Future Projections of Climate, in Indus Basin Irrigation System, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-19, August.
    11. Hyunok Lee & Daniel Sumner, 2015. "Economics of downscaled climate-induced changes in cropland, with projections to 2050: evidence from Yolo County California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 723-737, October.
    12. Liu, Qi & Niu, Jun & Wood, Jeffrey D. & Kang, Shaozhong, 2022. "Spatial optimization of cropping pattern in the upper-middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    13. Feilong Jie & Liangjun Fei & Shan Li & Kun Hao & Lihua Liu & Youliang Peng, 2022. "Effects on Net Irrigation Water Requirement of Joint Distribution of Precipitation and Reference Evapotranspiration," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, June.
    14. Iglesias, Ana & Garrote, Luis, 2015. "Adaptation strategies for agricultural water management under climate change in Europe," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 113-124.
    15. Zach Conrad & Christian J. Peters & Kenneth Chui & Lisa Jahns & Timothy S. Griffin, 2017. "Agricultural Capacity to Increase the Production of Select Fruits and Vegetables in the US: A Geospatial Modeling Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-15, September.
    16. Xu, Qin & Fox, Glenn & McKenney, Dan & Parkin, Gary, 2019. "A theoretical economic model of the demand for irrigation water," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amber Kerr & Jake Dialesandro & Kerri Steenwerth & Nathan Lopez-Brody & Emile Elias, 2018. "Vulnerability of California specialty crops to projected mid-century temperature changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 419-436, June.
    2. Arisha Ashraf & Ariel Dinar & Érika Monteiro & Todd Gaston, 2016. "Adaptation In California Agriculture: What Have We Been Assessing For Two And A Half Decades?," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-19, May.
    3. Olen, Beau & Wu, JunJie & Langpap, Christian, 2012. "Crop-specific Irrigation Choices for Major Crops on the West Coast: Water Scarcity and Climatic Determinants," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124843, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Wu, JunJie & Mapp, Harry P. & Bernardo, Daniel J., 1994. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Water Quality Policies on Irrigation Investment and Crop Choice Decisions," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 506-525, December.
    5. Guido Franco & Daniel Cayan & Susanne Moser & Michael Hanemann & Myoung-Ae Jones, 2012. "Erratum to: Second California Assessment: integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 1099-1100, August.
    6. Dinar, Ariel & Keck, Andrew, 1997. "Private irrigation investment in Colombia: effects of violence, macroeconomic policy, and environmental conditions," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, March.
    7. Rakotoarimanana Zy Harifidy & Rakotoarimanana Zy Misa Harivelo & Ishidaira Hiroshi & Magome Jun & Souma Kazuyoshi, 2022. "A Systematic Review of Water Resources Assessment at a Large River Basin Scale: Case of the Major River Basins in Madagascar," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-15, September.
    8. Nicolas E. Quintana Ashwell & Jeffrey M. Peterson, 2016. "The Impact of Irrigation Capital Subsidies on Common-Pool Groundwater Use and Depletion: Results for Western Kansas," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(03), pages 1-22, September.
    9. Esteve, Paloma & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene & Downing, Thomas E., 2015. "A hydro-economic model for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in irrigated agriculture," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 49-58.
    10. Kampas, Athanasios & Petsakos, Athanasios & Rozakis, Stelios, 2012. "Price induced irrigation water saving: Unraveling conflicts and synergies between European agricultural and water policies for a Greek Water District," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 28-38.
    11. Pongspikul, Tayatorn & McCann, Laura M., 2020. "Farmers’ Adoption of Pressure Irrigation Systems: The Case of Cotton Producers in the Southeastern versus Southwestern U.S," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304332, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Juchems, Elizabeth M. & Schoengold, Karina & Brozovic, Nicholas, 2013. "Predicting Groundwater Trading Participation In The Upper Republican Natural Resource District," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150511, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Goldstein, Don, 2015. "Climate-adaptive technological change in a small region: A resource-based scenario approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 168-180.
    14. Graveline, Nina & Grémont, Marine, 2021. "The role of perceptions, goals and characteristics of wine growers on irrigation adoption in the context of climate change," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    15. Mendelsohn, Robert & Seo, Niggol, 2007. "Changing farm types and irrigation as an adaptation to climate change in Latin American agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4161, The World Bank.
    16. Gonzalo Villa-Cox & Paul Herrera & Ramón Villa-Cox & Elvia Merino-Gaibor, 2017. "Small and Mid-Sized Farmer Irrigation Adoption in the Context of Public Provision of Hydric Infrastructure in Latin America and Caribbean," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(14), pages 4617-4631, November.
    17. Macharia, Anthony M. & Carpio, Carlos E. & Kirimi, Lilian, "undated". "Heterogeneity In Irrigation Technology Impacts: Implications For Adoption," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274358, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Phoebe Koundouri, 2004. "Current Issues in the Economics of Groundwater Resource Management," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(5), pages 703-740, December.
    19. Kishore, Siddharth & Nemati, Mehdi & Dinar, Ariel & Struthers, Cory & MacKenzie, Scott A. & Shugart, Matthew S., 2024. "The Impact of Dust Exposure on Farmland Market: Evidence from the California’s Central Valley," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343546, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Brian J. Gareau & Xiaorui Huang & Tara Pisani Gareau & Sandra DiDonato, 2020. "The strength of green ties: Massachusetts cranberry grower social networks and effects on climate change attitudes and action," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1613-1636, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:117:y:2013:i:c:p:70-82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.