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Vulnerability of California specialty crops to projected mid-century temperature changes

Author

Listed:
  • Amber Kerr

    (USDA California Climate Hub
    University of California, Davis)

  • Jake Dialesandro

    (University of California
    USDA Southwest Climate Hub)

  • Kerri Steenwerth

    (USDA California Climate Hub
    USDA-ARS Crops Pathology and Genetics Research Unit)

  • Nathan Lopez-Brody

    (USDA Southwest Climate Hub
    New Mexico State University)

  • Emile Elias

    (USDA Southwest Climate Hub
    USDA-ARS Range Management Research Unit)

Abstract

Increasing global temperatures are likely to have major impacts on agriculture, but the effects will vary by crop and location. This paper describes the temperature sensitivity and exposure of selected specialty crops in California. We used literature synthesis to create several sensitivity indices (from 1 to 4) to changes in winter minimum and summer maximum temperature for the top 14 specialty crops. To estimate exposure, we used seasonal period change analysis of mid-century minimum and maximum temperature changes downscaled to county level from CMIP5 models. We described crop vulnerability on a county basis as (crop sensitivity index × county climate exposure × area of crop in county); individual crop vulnerabilities were combined to create an aggregate index of specialty crop vulnerability by county. We also conducted analyses scaled by crop value rather than area, and normalized to total specialty crop area in each county. Our analyses yielded a spatial assessment highlighting seasons and counties of highest vulnerability. Winter and summer vulnerability are correlated, but not highly so. High-producing counties (e.g., Fresno County in the San Joaquin Valley) are the most vulnerable in absolute terms, while northern Sacramento Valley counties are the most vulnerable in relative terms, due to their reliance on heat-sensitive perennial crops. Our results illustrate the importance of examining crop vulnerability from different angles. More physiological and economic research is needed to build a comprehensive picture of specialty crop vulnerability to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Amber Kerr & Jake Dialesandro & Kerri Steenwerth & Nathan Lopez-Brody & Emile Elias, 2018. "Vulnerability of California specialty crops to projected mid-century temperature changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 419-436, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:148:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2011-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2011-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Quandt, Amy, 2023. "“You have to be resilient”: Producer perspectives to navigating a changing agricultural system in California, USA," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    3. Heng Chen & Jennifer K. Ryan, 2023. "Optimal specialty crop planning policies with yield learning and forward contract," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(2), pages 359-378, February.
    4. Eduardo Fernandez & Cory Whitney & Italo F. Cuneo & Eike Luedeling, 2020. "Prospects of decreasing winter chill for deciduous fruit production in Chile throughout the 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 423-439, April.
    5. Cai, Qingyin & Çakır, Metin & Beatty, Timothy & Park, Timothy A., 2022. "Drought and the Specialty Crops Production in California," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322530, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Gabriel Granco & Haoji He & Brandon Lentz & Jully Voong & Alan Reeve & Exal Vega, 2023. "Mid- and End-of-the-Century Estimation of Agricultural Suitability of California’s Specialty Crops," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-18, October.

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