IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i16p8695-d608163.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Irrigation Supply and Demand, Land Use/Cover Change and Future Projections of Climate, in Indus Basin Irrigation System, Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Naveed Ahmed

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    Key Laboratory of Mountain Surface Process and Ecological Regulations, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    These authors equally contributed to this study.)

  • Haishen Lü

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Shakeel Ahmed

    (Project Management Office (PMO) for Punjab Barrages, Rehabilitation & Modernization Projects, Punjab Irrigation Department, Lahore 39571, Pakistan)

  • Ghulam Nabi

    (Center of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Abdul Wajid

    (Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan)

  • Aamir Shakoor

    (Department of Agricultural Engineering, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan 66000, Pakistan
    These authors equally contributed to this study.)

  • Hafiz Umar Farid

    (Department of Agricultural Engineering, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan 66000, Pakistan)

Abstract

Sustainable management of canal water through optimum water allocation is the need of the modern world due to the rapid rise in water demand and climatic variations. The present research was conducted at the Chaj Doab, Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) of Pakistan, using the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) model. Six different scenarios were developed, and the results showed that the current available surface water is not sufficient to meet crop water demands. The Lower Jhelum Canal (LJC) command area is more sensitive to water scarcity than the Upper Jhelum Canal (UJC). The future (up to 2070) climate change scenarios for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 showed a decrease in catchment reliability up to 26.80 and 26.28% for UJC as well as 27.56 and 27.31% for LJC catchment, respectively. We concluded that scenario 3 (irrigation efficiency improvement through implementation of a high efficiency irrigation system, canal lining, reduction and replacement of high delta crops with low delta crops) was sufficient to reduce the canal water deficit in order to optimize canal water allocation. Improvement in the irrigation system and cropping area should be optimized for efficient canal water management.

Suggested Citation

  • Naveed Ahmed & Haishen Lü & Shakeel Ahmed & Ghulam Nabi & Muhammad Abdul Wajid & Aamir Shakoor & Hafiz Umar Farid, 2021. "Irrigation Supply and Demand, Land Use/Cover Change and Future Projections of Climate, in Indus Basin Irrigation System, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-19, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:16:p:8695-:d:608163
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/16/8695/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/16/8695/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fahim, Muhammad Amir, 2011. "Impact of water scarcity on food security at meso level in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 35759, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Dec 2011.
    2. Mehta, Vishal K. & Haden, Van R. & Joyce, Brian A. & Purkey, David R. & Jackson, Louise E., 2013. "Irrigation demand and supply, given projections of climate and land-use change, in Yolo County, California," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 70-82.
    3. Hussain, Intizar, 2005. "Pro-poor intervention strategies in irrigated agriculture in Asia: poverty in irrigated agriculture: issues, lessons, options and guidelines: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Vietnam.," IWMI Research Reports H037150, International Water Management Institute.
    4. Esteve, Paloma & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene & Downing, Thomas E., 2015. "A hydro-economic model for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in irrigated agriculture," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 49-58.
    5. Fahim, Muhammad Amir, 2011. "Impact of water scarcity on food security at macro level in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 35758, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Nov 2011.
    6. Aein, Reza & Alizadeh, Hosein, 2021. "Integrated hydro-economic modeling for optimal design of development scheme of salinity affected irrigated agriculture in Helleh River Basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    7. Dehghanipour, Amir Hossein & Zahabiyoun, Bagher & Schoups, Gerrit & Babazadeh, Hossein, 2019. "A WEAP-MODFLOW surface water-groundwater model for the irrigated Miyandoab plain, Urmia lake basin, Iran: Multi-objective calibration and quantification of historical drought impacts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Flichman, Guillermo, 2011. "Cost-effectiveness of groundwater conservation measures: A multi-level analysis with policy implications," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(4), pages 639-652, February.
    9. Tingju Zhu & Claudia Ringler & M. Mohsin Iqbal & Timothy B. Sulser & M. Arif Goheer, 2013. "Climate change impacts and adaptation options for water and food in Pakistan: scenario analysis using an integrated global water and food projections model," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 651-669, September.
    10. Schneider, Pia & Sander, Bjoern Ole & Wassmann, Reiner & Asch, Folkard, 2019. "Potential and versatility of WEAP model (Water Evaluation and Planning System) for hydrological assessments of AWD (Alternate Wetting and Drying) in irrigated rice," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Brian Joyce & Vishal Mehta & David Purkey & Larry Dale & Michael Hanemann, 2011. "Modifying agricultural water management to adapt to climate change in California’s central valley," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 299-316, December.
    12. Gohar Gulshan Mahmood & Haroon Rashid & Shafiq Anwar & Abdul Nasir, 2019. "Evaluation Of Climate Change Impacts On Rainfall Patterns In Pothohar Region Of Pakistan," Water Conservation & Management (WCM), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 1-6, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amber Kerr & Jake Dialesandro & Kerri Steenwerth & Nathan Lopez-Brody & Emile Elias, 2018. "Vulnerability of California specialty crops to projected mid-century temperature changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 419-436, June.
    2. Reidsma, Pytrik & Janssen, Sander & Jansen, Jacques & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2018. "On the development and use of farm models for policy impact assessment in the European Union – A review," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 111-125.
    3. Iglesias, Ana & Garrote, Luis, 2015. "Adaptation strategies for agricultural water management under climate change in Europe," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 113-124.
    4. Zach Conrad & Christian J. Peters & Kenneth Chui & Lisa Jahns & Timothy S. Griffin, 2017. "Agricultural Capacity to Increase the Production of Select Fruits and Vegetables in the US: A Geospatial Modeling Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-15, September.
    5. Hrozencik, Robert Aaron & Manning, Dale T., 2016. "Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial-Dynamic Hydro-Economic Modelling Framework," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236116, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Ali Sardar Shahraki & Javad Shahraki & Seyed Arman Hashemi Monfared, 2021. "An integrated model for economic assessment of environmental scenarios for dust stabilization and sustainable flora–fauna ecosystem in international Hamoun wetland," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 947-967, January.
    7. Esteve, Paloma & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene & Downing, Thomas E., 2015. "A hydro-economic model for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in irrigated agriculture," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 49-58.
    8. Amine Chekireb & Julio Goncalves & Hubert Stahn & Agnes Tomini, 2021. "Private exploitation of the North-Western Sahara Aquifer System," Working Papers halshs-03457972, HAL.
    9. Dehghanipour, Amir Hossein & Schoups, Gerrit & Zahabiyoun, Bagher & Babazadeh, Hossein, 2020. "Meeting agricultural and environmental water demand in endorheic irrigated river basins: A simulation-optimization approach applied to the Urmia Lake basin in Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    10. Anabel Sanchez-Plaza & Annelies Broekman & Pilar Paneque, 2019. "Analytical Framework to Assess the Incorporation of Climate Change Adaptation in Water Management: Application to the Tordera River Basin Adaptation Plan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-13, February.
    11. Hyunok Lee & Daniel Sumner, 2015. "Economics of downscaled climate-induced changes in cropland, with projections to 2050: evidence from Yolo County California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 723-737, October.
    12. Ajay Gajanan Bhave & Neha Mittal & Ashok Mishra & Narendra Singh Raghuwanshi, 2016. "Integrated Assessment of no-Regret Climate Change Adaptation Options for Reservoir Catchment and Command Areas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1001-1018, February.
    13. A. Alamanos & D. Latinopoulos & G. Papaioannou & N. Mylopoulos, 2019. "Integrated Hydro-Economic Modeling for Sustainable Water Resources Management in Data-Scarce Areas: The Case of Lake Karla Watershed in Greece," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(8), pages 2775-2790, June.
    14. Namara, Regassa E. & Hanjra, Munir A. & Castillo, Gina E. & Ravnborg, Helle Munk & Smith, Lawrence & Van Koppen, Barbara, 2010. "Agricultural water management and poverty linkages," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 520-527, April.
    15. Foster, T. & Brozović, N., 2018. "Simulating Crop-Water Production Functions Using Crop Growth Models to Support Water Policy Assessments," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 9-21.
    16. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2017. "Factors affecting CO2 emissions in China’s agriculture sector: Evidence from geographically weighted regression model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 404-414.
    17. Amjath-Babu, T.S. & Sharma, Bikash & Brouwer, Roy & Rasul, Golam & Wahid, Shahriar M. & Neupane, Nilhari & Bhattarai, Utsav & Sieber, Stefan, 2019. "Integrated modelling of the impacts of hydropower projects on the water-food-energy nexus in a transboundary Himalayan river basin," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 494-503.
    18. Komarek, Adam M. & Drogue, Sophie & Chenoune, Roza & Hawkins, James & Msangi, Siwa & Belhouchette, Hatem & Flichman, Guillermo, 2017. "Agricultural household effects of fertilizer price changes for smallholder farmers in central Malawi," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 168-178.
    19. Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Nie, S.L. & Chen, X., 2011. "A robust modeling approach for regional water management under multiple uncertainties," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(10), pages 1577-1588, August.
    20. Muhammad Ali Imran & Asghar Ali & Muhammad Ashfaq & Sarfraz Hassan & Richard Culas & Chunbo Ma, 2018. "Impact of Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) Practices on Cotton Production and Livelihood of Farmers in Punjab, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-20, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:16:p:8695-:d:608163. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.